I'd like to see a final fleet of five carriers, tops, possibly reduced to four in future.
This is mostly in recognition that the first two or three of those carriers will be relatively "mid sized" carriers rather than full 100k ton CATOBAR nuclear powered monsters.
We already have liaoning, we expect a follow on class to be either 001A or 002, that is to say, either STOBAR or CATOBAR, but displacing similar to liaoning. either one 001A and one 002 will be built, or two 002s (if they decide to skip 001A), before they move onto CVN I imagine.
By the time two CVNs are built, I imagine they will be able to quite happily operate a 5 carrier fleet for about a decade until liaoning needs to be retired, necessitating the construction of a newer CVN class I imagine.
In any case, 4-5 carriers is a must have for the PLAN. 1 forward deployed in a CSG, two or three operating in home waters, and one that will be inevitably in refit/maintenance.
The same goes for the amphibious force.
I'd like to see ultimately 9 large LPDs akin to 071, but 6 would also be acceptable in the near term. 3-4 large LHDs in the 30-40k ton range is also necessary. Have 1 LHD and 2-3 LPDs forward deployed at any one time with a couple of their own escorts, and the PLAMC equivalent of an MEU dispersed among that force.
Of course, forward deploying a CVBG and an ARG will be a massive undertaking.
Each CVBG/ARG will need at least four escorts, possibly six, and possibly two AORs each, depending on how long they will deploy for. And also they'll need at least one SSN for each CVBG or ARG too.
That will be a massive challenge for both the country to build, but also for the PLAN's logistics and planning capacity.
I expect by 2030 China will have enough modern surface combatants to competently escort a CVBG and ARG abroad while also having enough ships back home as well.
If we consider a 3 DDG/CG and 3 FFG escort for each CVBG and ARG, they will have more than enough by 2030. They could hypothetically do so in a few years (say 2015) once they have 6 052C and 4 052D in service. They already have 20 054As in the water and all will be commissioned within a few years too.
That will leave 4 modern DDGs and 7 modern FFGs at home, in addition to the non 052C/D destroyers and older jiangweis, jianghus and 056s.
By 2020 we can expect all 8 052Ds to be in service too, with possibly 1-2 055s, and perhaps even a new generation frigate. And in 2030 I expect we'll see 055s replace all the older 051s, 052s, 051B, and possibly even sovremenny and 052B. They might even seek to expand the number of destroyer flotillas too.
In the meanwhile a new generation frigate will probably replace jiangweis and some jianghus on a one to one basis to maintain ship number, and will probably enter service in the main destroyer flotillas, while the older two 054s and older 054As are relegated to frigate patrol squadrons that currently are made up of jianghus and jiangweis.
All in all, if funding keeps up, chances are the PLAN will at least seek to maintain ship numbers. We've seen 056s effectively replacing 037s on one to one, there's no reason to expect new frigates and destroyers won't do the same.
The PLAN is already one of the largest and most capable navies even with two thirds to a half of its surface combatant fleet being elderly and near obsolete. Once they turn the entire force into a fleet equipped with modern cruisers, destroyers and frigates of the 21st century that can escort a modest number of large carriers and amphibious assault ships, they will be quite a force to be reckoned with.
Certainly they'll be beyond the class of european navies whose once might fleets have been reduced to only fielding a half dozen or so of modern DDG classes
