FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Have you missed the last 30 years??
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
broadsword
Brigadier
China can show them what MAD is.
Good luck justifying to the public and oligarchs why they need to all die because some American conscripts failed to hold the line a war of aggression US themselves started?
America would not dare to use nukes unless the other option was total destruction/execution of the oligarchs. People like for example Soros or Biden are narcissistic psychopaths, meaning they assign themselves an infinite value. They can't concieve the idea of trading their own infinitely valuable lives in "revenge" of finite value (worthless) American conscript lives.
They would much rather take the L and build their own more limited bandit kingdom in the north Americas if they misplay their hand and end up slapped by China.
So you just have some posturing of them "upgrading" their forces because they genuinely don't have real conventional upgrades they can roll out in a timely manner anymore. It's all to decieve the American public into US still having the power to threaten China. But if you look at it carefully, we can see that they won't make a peep when these assets are destroyed, that is, if there are any nukes on them for real to begin with.
Want more proof? In the aftermath of the Korean war, US in a move of unprecedented aggression supposedly moved nuclear weapons into KMT held areas. China threatened them with nuclear ultimatum. And guess who sent their supposed nukes back to the mainland?
Taiwanese media report Turkish frigate TCG Kınalıada sailed through the strait today watched by a 052D. At first my reaction was "what the hell does Turkey think they're doing" but then I connected the dots:
Given the ship just visited Hong Kong in diplomatic tour and their FM is in Beijing right now I'm pretty sure they got the go ahead from China for the transit. The fact that both the frigate and the watching 052D transited the strait on the Taiwan side of the midline means it's actually another salami slicing tactics, just this time with some help from Turkey.
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solarz
Brigadier
Is CCP reading this thread?
On a serious note, I am going to continue to argue why peaceful unification makes no sense.
1. It requires a very large portion of population support imminent unification. This wont happen in 20 years, even with a wealthier China per capita.
2. It requires the said population agitated enough to pressure government to submit, through demonstration, violence, etc. Just support is not enough, they must want to risk life, not wait for mainland do the job.
3. Requires the island government failing to stop the mobs, and submit to it.
Do you seriously see the above 3 happening in 20 years? Peaceful unification is a cope, and highly unrealistic one. It is only useful as a cope for government to quell public sentiment for nation building. It cant be an actual plan to success.
In my view the most optimistic view of 'peaceful unification' is an military operation that is so succesful the government decide fighting is pointless. It is peaceful in the sense very few soldier died, and the population is submissive enough to not riot. Make no mistake a peaceful unification is still technically a armed reunification in ideal circumstances.
At this point, the only realistic definition of "Peaceful Reunification" is a surrender from TW regime, and that will only happen when the US is no longer capable of holding TW.
TW, SK, and Japan are not sovereign entities. They are all puppet regimes controlled by the US.
I totally agree, although I don't think bombs will never be drop on Taiwan. The war will be against the US navy, and once that is won Taiwan will fall peacefully.Is CCP reading this thread?
On a serious note, I am going to continue to argue why peaceful unification makes no sense.
I think, although I could be mistaken since I am not chinese, that they Chinese attitude can be understood in function of the lessons of the fall of Han dynasty, that are so present in the Chinese culture through the Romance of 3 kingdoms.
The lessons are to be cautious and only act when you are really prepared, as bold movements and too much ambition can cause the total fall of the state and absolute chaos.
Therefore China talk about peaceful re unification, while build their tech, their allies, their navy, and increase their relative power until the point that they can assure to win without risk instability.
The 2nd and 3rd point specifically would fail against any western ally government, because western style of government is the most repressive.
Anything can be justify in name of the democracy, and the truth does not matter.
A good example nowadays is Moldavia, where the majority of the people actually living in the country are actually against any NATO integration, and voted to a neutral/pro Russian candidate. The current pro NATO president was elected only due to votes of a big diaspora of people living in the EU.
So, real local people strike a lot to stop the pro NATO integration (something pretty logical, because they will be the victims) but they are violently dispersed by the police and their leaders arrested, and called pro russian and anti democratic agitators.
In Taiwan it does not matter even if 70% of the population is against the independence, media, police and authorities will disperse and catalog them as fake taiwanese, and the global media as the BBC and so on will sell it to the world.
China needs to watch out for the US' own salami-slicing strategy, previously the Americans boasted about their "Strategic Ambiguity" approach to Taiwan, but more recently we are hearing statements about how American forces will help Taiwan in case of Chinese special liberation ops, at the same time, there is a slow but steady build-up of American forces in Taiwan. IMO, the Americans are testing China's response to these developments, so if 100 American soldiers are stationed in Taiwan and there is no reaction from China, Americans will increase it by another hundred, and if there is no reaction, then to a thousand, until we get to a point where there are significant American forces de facto permanently stationed in Taiwan. I do not know what is the best way to respond to this situation, but I think China can't afford to stay idle either.
Why is more American body bags China's problem? If anything China should subtly encourage more US personnel on Taiwan.
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