PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Aren't those clear signs that the US is woefully unprepared for military conflict with China? How long will US stocks of air defense missiles last in a conflict with China? Does the US even have as many SM-3s as China has AShBMs?

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I understand you bro, but I'm not sure anyone there is capable of doing any math at this point.

They are beyond stupid, beyond delusional, beyond incompetent, etc.

If they don't have that, they'll cope that they have something else, do a different war game simulation, etc.

What I do know for certain is that judging from their statements, they are all slowly moving to a war.

The reason you don't see any new build-up of military hardware might be their manufacturing atrophy,

The reason you don't see any new construction or fortifying happening in their sitting-duck bases around China and in the Pacific might be their construction sector atrophy.

When it is like that anyway, then better don't have any build-up at all to make it seem like you're not the one initiating the war.

Also, now is the election year so it is a little hard for anyone to initiate a build-up there, but we'll see what will happen after the elections.

Remember once again how many strategic mistakes the US made in the last 5 years.

So, why wouldn't they also go into a war with China? To my impression, they are all that stupid.

For me, this is also the best-case scenario for the world. I belive that war will be their final nail in the coffin.

Serb said:

The likelihood of a political settlement is near zero if you look at actual data and trends observed in it as well as daily news. Why is it near zero? If it didn't happen in the last 70 years when people were much closer, it certainly won't happen in the future, in the next 70 years, when you have pro-unification voices in Taiwan decimated over time to a level of statistical error nearly, DPP taking power from KMT for 3 consecutive terms already, and rising "Taiwanese" ethnic identity in polling, etc. Political settlement would happen only if the US disintegrated on its own one day.

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In the past 70 years, Taiwan was a lot wealthier and advanced than Mainland China, so there was never much incentive for the Taiwanese to pursue a political settlement.

But the China-Taiwan relationship will be very different in 30 years, given that China has an overall commanding position in the technologies of the future. The studies indicate that all these productivity gains will end up as higher wages, and if China is the most technologically advanced, that argues for the world's highest wage levels. And with 3-4x the US population, that is a tremendous economic advantage, which is the foundation of all other forms of power.

At the same time, we're finally seeing the beginning of a US debt spiral happening. I give it an 80% chance of a crisis in confidence in the USD. It might happen in 5 years, but I don't see it taking 30 years.

Personally, I see about an 80% probability of the US being displaced out of the Western Pacific within a 30 year timeframe.

As for the terms of any reunification, I think a veto over foreign affairs (aka a confederation) would be acceptable to both Taiwan and China.

Serb said:

I understand you bro, but I'm not sure anyone there is capable of doing any math at this point.

They are beyond stupid, beyond delusional, beyond incompetent, etc.

If they don't have that, they'll cope that they have something else, do a different war game simulation, etc.

What I do know for certain is that judging from their statements, they are all slowly moving to a war.

The reason you don't see any new build-up of military hardware might be their manufacturing atrophy,

The reason you don't see any new construction or fortifying happening in their sitting-duck bases around China and in the Pacific might be their construction sector atrophy.

When it is like that anyway, then better don't have any build-up at all to make it seem like you're not the one initiating the war.

Also, now is the election year so it is a little hard for anyone to initiate a build-up there, but we'll see what will happen after the elections.

Remember once again how many strategic mistakes the US made in the last 5 years.

So, why wouldn't they also go into a war with China? To my impression, they are all that stupid.

For me, this is also the best-case scenario for the world. I belive that war will be their final nail in the coffin.

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I still think (or at least hope) that the US rhetoric is mainly just rhetoric and that more rational minds will prevail. US actions in the Phillipines and Taiwan currently are aimed at antagonizing China rather than provoking outright war. A war has the potential to end in a strategic nuclear exchange, which would be a worst case outcome for the world. My previous theories regarding full scale economic war may be exaggerated, but I still believe the US's primary goal is to gather support to erect partial trade barriers against China to protect US market share in overseas markets (specifically for high value add industries). Ultimately, the US is a financial empire based on control of trade and markets, and US core interests are primarily economic in nature.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I still think (or at least hope) that the US rhetoric is mainly just rhetoric and that more rational minds will prevail. US actions in the Phillipines and Taiwan currently are aimed at antagonizing China rather than provoking outright war. A war has the potential to end in a strategic nuclear exchange, which would be a worst case outcome for the world. My previous theories regarding full scale economic war may be exaggerated, but I still believe the US's primary goal is to gather support to erect partial trade barriers against China to protect US market share in overseas markets (specifically for high value add industries).

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I believe that this bolded part isn't worth potentially losing control over Taiwan, or the Philipines getting slapped by China (when they have a defense treaty signed). Imagine the loss of reputation they would suffer which is their true lifeline as an empire. They would lose more.

So, if all those orchestrated baiting provocative actions performed by those 2 pawns, and US rhetoric, are simply materializing in other to provoke China to assert its dominance there (in order for the US to achieve the bolded part), then I don't think it is worth it for the US.

AndrewS said:

In the past 70 years, Taiwan was a lot wealthier and advanced than Mainland China, so there was never much incentive for the Taiwanese to pursue a political settlement.

But the China-Taiwan relationship will be very different in 30 years, given that China has an overall commanding position in the technologies of the future. The studies indicate that all these productivity gains will end up as higher wages, and if China is the most technologically advanced, that argues for the world's highest wage levels. And with 3-4x the US population, that is a tremendous economic advantage, which is the foundation of all other forms of power.

At the same time, we're finally seeing the beginning of a US debt spiral happening. I give it an 80% chance of a crisis in confidence in the USD. It might happen in 5 years, but I don't see it taking 30 years.

Personally, I see about an 80% probability of the US being displaced out of the Western Pacific within a 30 year timeframe.

As for the terms of any reunification, I think a veto over foreign affairs (aka a confederation) would be acceptable to both Taiwan and China.

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I'm not challenging that the Chinese are going to get enormously wealthier in the future, but it is questionable whether that will translate into tangible changes in opinion inside Taiwan when you still have the US controlling and mass-brainwashing them through media.

So, you are not addressing the right point, you are addressing your assumption's validity itself, not whether this would affect the underlying thing we are talking about (will of political reconciliation, soft power, or however, else you want to frame it).

You have just in the last 30 years self-identifying as Chinese ethnicity going from 25% to 2.5% percent last year. Whereas Taiwanese identity jumped from 17% to 60-80% in the last few years.

DPP von last 3 elections, as they were getting more hawkish and you have pro-unification survey responses dropping from 20% to 7.5% in the last 30 years.

So, as China was getting wealthier, closing the gap, during that time, not only didn't things stay the same, but they even deteriorated more.

So, why would Chinese economic progress make a magical turn-around in outcome in the future, for some reason, when it never did by now?

To be honest, a train toward peaceful reconciliation already passed a long time ago. You have entire new generations thinking they are living in a totally separate country like Spain or Italy, as opposed to being inside of a Chinese province and having Chinese historic roots.

Those older generations are also dying, they are those KMT voters. The case for your argument will only get worse as time passes by.

You have dozens of surveys/polls/research done on this exact topic, and they all show the same things against "time working for China".

Let's be realistic here, there is absolutely no chance no matter what China does, even if they all become as rich as those oil sheiks in Dubai, for Taiwan to suddenly wake up one day and come back peacefully, there certainly needs to be a kinetic shock therapy of some extent first.

Or if the US collapsed, and with that, their media-brainwashing hard power over Taiwan, only then I see Taiwan returning peacefully to them.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

The question is whether or not the US seriously believes industries in the US can be revived if foreign competition is eliminated. With regards to semiconductors, the US has sure been trying with the CHIPS act and the projects in Arizona. I don't see Japan deviating from the US led bloc, though SK would most likely flip.

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There is no real economic basis for the CHIPS act. Why is Intel Foundry services seeking customers (recently went through leadership changes) and Intel's stock price down from prior year's highs? Simply because they have a lot of excess capacity, especially at nodes that are expensive, but not cutting edge (ie. 10nm). If the government is handing you money to build new fabs, you take it. That money might not be there tomorrow. If the new revenue streams don't materialize, just shut the plant down, no money lost because it was Biden's.

AMD and nVidia might benefit from more supply of AI/GP-GPU chips, but they are also clearly simply adjusting their pricing to account for the constrained supply, rather than invest in new capacity (although they are fabless, they could easily help TSMC finance new capacity), but we are not seeing that.

The whole "reviving US industries" is a political myth created by politicians. It will never happen, at least not in the way people commonly conceptualize (US companies building factories). The stock market simply does not reward this kind of asset-heavy investment, the margin on the return is too low. Again using nVidia as an example, they are basically printing money right now, but no one is seriously suggesting they go and start building out a fab. There has been very little manufacturing expansion outside of semiconductors. 10 years ago, Apple proudly announced they would make the Mac Pro (a high margin/high value product) in the USA. Ends up they couldn't even get the screws made in the USA.

TLR
Semiconductors, reshoring, friendshoring, (insert other nonsense here) is irrelevant to Taiwan. Ultimately the US geopolitical strategic goals will dictate whatever action they take, not economic concerns.

Serb said:

The likelihood of a political settlement is near zero if you look at actual data and trends observed in it as well as daily news. Why is it near zero? If it didn't happen in the last 70 years when people were much closer, it certainly won't happen in the future, in the next 70 years, when you have pro-unification voices in Taiwan decimated over time to a level of statistical error nearly, DPP taking power from KMT for 3 consecutive terms already, and rising "Taiwanese" ethnic identity in polling, etc. Political settlement would happen only if the US disintegrated on its own one day.

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Pro-Unification support was always near zero. Only reason it seemed more prominent in the past was because the Taiwan media was controlled by the KMT and unification was literally the official party line. You think pro-unification support in HK was high prior to the handover?

DPP has won presidency now, but lost the parliament. The current president is essentially a lame duck as seen by the current legislative activity. This was also happened in the past to the DPP. Furthermore, US activity was a factor in both of the last 2 terms of the DPP (US instigated 2014 Sunflower movement to prevent a wider free trade agreement with the Mainland). Tsai was not polling to win her 2nd term until the convenient HK riots erupted.

"Taiwanese" identity is just a social media question. This is no different than those surveys where 25% of people under 25 identify as LGBTQ, which is far higher than any other age cohort. Putting aside any prejudices, it is simply not possible that population to be drastically different even accounting for societal attitudes. There are also many "Taiwanese" that claim to be of Indigenous/Japanese/Dutch ancestry and not Chinese on social media. Amazing!

In reality, mainland and Taiwan are closer than ever. Business is free to go across, flights are free to go across, there are ferries from the mainland to the ROC controlled islands. Under the martial law era in Taiwan, visiting the mainland was a crime, families were separated for decades. Even after things loosened, many things had to go through HK as an intermediate step (i.e. mail) until recently. Students on both sides can pursue higher education on either side, jobs, etc.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I hope AR never happens and that some form of peaceful compromise can be reached in future decades. Perhaps some sort of federated model where Taiwanese residents can have self-governance and self-policing. At the minimum, as long as status-quo is respected, I would rather not see AR taking place.

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The former TI advocate and DPP VP under CSB Annette Lu advocates for this model now, lol. Of course pan-green now disavows this former "Hero of Kaohsiung"

Serb said:

So, as China was getting wealthier, closing the gap, during that time, not only didn't things stay the same, but they even deteriorated more.

So, why would Chinese economic progress make a magical turn-around in outcome in the future, for some reason, when it never did by now?

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Because the average Chinese person would be expected to be substantially wealthier than the average in Taiwan or indeed the US. And for Chinese society to be more technologically advanced than Taiwan or the USA as well.

In previous decades, China was still catching up and was always perceived as poor and backward.

Think about how attitudes in Western Europe towards Eastern Europe are sometimes really outdated.

Serb said:

Or if the US collapsed, and with that, their media-brainwashing hard power over Taiwan, only then I see Taiwan returning peacefully to them.

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As stated previously, I do expect a collapse in the US Dollar within the next 30 years. That will have a knock on effect on the actual American position and also the perception of US Power, in the Western Pacific and globally.

Plus if China starts conducting blockade drills around Taiwan multiple times per year, then there has to be at least grudging acknowledgement of Chinese power and lack of US support.

Breaking | Mainland China suspends tariff arrangements on 134 items under Taiwan trade deal​

• Decision to take effect from June 15, says Customs Tariff Commission under the State Council in Beijing
• Statement says Taiwan ‘failed’ to take any actions to remove trade restrictions on products from mainland China

Finally, China is playing the economics card on Taiwan.

AndrewS said:

Because the average Chinese person would be expected to be substantially wealthier than the average in Taiwan or indeed the US. And for Chinese society to be more technologically advanced than Taiwan or the USA as well.

In previous decades, China was still catching up and was always perceived as poor and backward.

Think about how attitudes in Western Europe towards Eastern Europe are sometimes really outdated.



As stated previously, I do expect a collapse in the US Dollar within the next 30 years. That will have a knock on effect on the actual American position and also the perception of US Power, in the Western Pacific and globally.

Plus if China starts conducting blockade drills around Taiwan multiple times per year, then there has to be at least grudging acknowledgement of Chinese power and lack of US support.

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30 years? more like 30 months lol

yesterday I heard a political commentator who described the stages of Beijing's engagements with the Taipei authority.
1, engaged in Peaceful Reunification talks under Deng-->engaged in PR talks under Hu-->engage in PR talks under Xi, no change as far as peaceful negotiations are concerned.

2, built up military from scratch under Deng-->prepared for military action if push came to shove under Hu--> prepare for action when the right opportunity presents itself under Xi, reflecting the reality of tremendous / significant progress of military buildup over the last 2- 3 decades or so.

3, Armed Reunification was an almost totally unrealistic bottom-line strategy if PR failed under Deng-->AR was a not-quite-realistic option if TW declared independence under Hu--> AR is a viable (and maybe the only) option if TW wants to play hardball under Xi, reflecting the overall advantage in the comprehensive strength of Beijing vis-a vis Taipei.

To summarize the situation under Xi at present time: engage in peace talks (for the global audience), but prepare to fight (show resolve to the Americans), and do not procrastinate AR anymore (for Mainland public opinion and demand).