There are so many problems from this statement alone. You should take back this statement and educate yourself on the history of Taiwan.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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There are so many problems from this statement alone. You should take back this statement and educate yourself on the history of Taiwan.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
What makes you think the US will want to fight the war that China has been preparing to fight? US will aim to fight in away that maximizes its advantages, ie outside of the 2nd Island Chain. The US will not seek to contest Chinese military operations aimed at Taiwan. The US may not even fight at all in the military sense of the word. If the US moved to provoke conflict over Taiwan, it would be for economic warfare. US will use the Chinese invasion as a pretext to get maximal economic, financial, and trade sanctions against China. It would seize Chinese assets and move to exclude Chinese products from as many markets as it could. The USN will exert sea control in far away waters to disrupt Chinese trade to nations that are not onboard with the sanctions. This disruption does not have to take the form of a total blockade, and the actual interdiction/confiscation of trade may not even be done by the USN itself. All the US would need to do is to interdict/confiscate a significant portion of Chinese trade to drive up the costs of trading with China. To minimize the risk of the US embarking on such a path, China needs to combat economic decoupling in the coming years as much as it can, in order to drive up the potential economic costs to the US if it were to set such a plan in motion.
Then the status quo should be maintained as long as possible.
I think this is an overreaction, I didn't interpret his statement as comparing China to Imperial Japan at all.
If Chinese navy would be 100% sure they can defeat US navy decisively in the Pacific, and take control of lets say Taiwan, Okinawa and so on they would I think.
Your example is valid because that certainty does not exist, and therefore China could suffer economical damage due to destruction of civilians things
This will change int he near future, and when Chinese will assess that they can defeat US 100% sure and with total or enough big supremacy they will act.
This is how it have worked with all empires toward history. Strategically Taiwan is tremendously important for China so as soon as they will be ready they will take it. The key for that is not in taiwan itself but in defeating the US
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Why? What would the costs be for such a war?
But not since the advent of nuclear weapons.
The only way that the US can successfully provoke China into a conflict is clearly through Taiwan or the Philippines, and that's what you see in the media every day they are doing, using those two pawns to provoke a conflict with China in which they could then jump in to "defend" them. As for why they are doing that, they only noticed the Chinese full true potential and exponential rise happening a few years ago and saw that militarily destroying China is their only hope to prevail against it in the long run. But they can't just declare war against China for no reason, they need to lay some groundwork for that years in advance to make their actions more legitimate once they occur. They can't choose where to fight, China isn't interested in the stuff outside of the 1st Island Chain. They want Taiwan and some islands in the SCS. Once the Philippines and Taiwan overstep, they could simply go and assert their authority there. The US, at that time, could either sit and watch their whole legitimacy as some kind of hegemon be decimated in the eyes of the whole world or go there to "help righteously" those pawns as they planned in the first place.
Well, I'm totally dismissing that the US wants to wage economic warfare against China, mainly because they are a gazillion times weaker than China in that area. I think that even, as dumb as they are, they know that this won't work against China. Why? China has real goods everyone needs and can't replace, whereas the US has some virtual fictitious assets and currency. China is the world's biggest exporter, the biggest trade partner of most countries in the world, the biggest creditor to most nations, infrastructure provider, has 150 countries in the BRI which helps in various ways. So, no one would follow the US on that. However, the biggest reason is that the US itself can't do anything without Chinese products. That's like saying that the US would sanction itself, even they are not that stupid. Do you understand how much they are dependent on Chinese exports to not go into hyperinflation? Even, as dumb as they come, they often admit honestly how military is their strongest point.
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Personally I do not agree.
Strategically US does not have such power of sanction.. Their possibility against China is a battle. China and China allies have a far bigger leverage and possibilities of disrupt the global economy that any US and European Sanction.
Just a quick example. China blockade Taiwan. US tries to impose sanctions from hell on China. China unleash NK against SK. Iran close the Ormuz strait to any western ship.
Yemenies close the red sea to any westerns ship.
Russia can do whatever it wants, from cutting resources from central asia to europe to increase the pressure there. They could even use their Pacific navy and subs to also blockade Japan.
Suddenly the West loose all chips and petrol, and their full economy collapse.
And this without even counting that literally half the thigs american use are made in China and suddenly they would not have this products
The West does not have the strategical advantage against China and allies. The only thing is that China and allies prefer to win, rather than to loose less. But if the US would go all in they will answer.
How the US can avoid this? With military might. Defending Ormuz strait, defending their control of Taiwan and SK.
If situation arrive to the point of China blocading Taiwan US will have to show up or simply loose their global power
Because recovering Taiwan reduces a lot the movements of the US in the Pacific and expand the movements of China. The effect of such change is that traditionally US aligned countries like Japan or Filipines would have to switch to a more friendly position to the new power.
This not only reduces strategic capabilities of US to attack China but also increase Chinese business possibilities with both Japan and Filipines.
True, but US faces an China that is also armed with nuclear weapons
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Existing US capabilities would be facing a significant disadvantage if operating with the 2nd Island Chain, and in order to militarily destroy China, the US would have to operate within the 2IC. If the US were preparing for military conflict, we should be seeing a build-up in US capabilities, but we have neither seem a ramp-up in the build of existing capabilities or any meaningful new capabilities (outside of using cargo planes to sling subsonic missiles). I simply fail to see how the US can hope to win such a conflict.
That fact that China has nuclear weapons should deter the US from seeking directly military confrontation.
The benefits of movement in the Pacific is only a benefit if China was expecting for war to actually happen. In the case that war is already imminent, then it would make sense for China to seize Taiwan, but seizing Taiwan for the sake of preparing for war seems to me as putting the cart before the horse. Frankly I just don't see how any increased business opportunities with Japan or the Philippines can justify the costs of war. War between China and the US would be extremely destructive and costly for all parties involved, and carries the real risk of ending human civilization. I would hope that in our lifetime, we would never see war break out between China and the US.
While there may be those within the US that would seek military conflict or economic war with China, I still think the most likely outcome is for the US to continue with its containment strategy against China and for the status quo concerning Taiwan to be maintained into the foreseeable future.
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Are you sure they also understand those significant disadvantages given how delusional they are?
Are you sure that they don't look at this from this perspective: "Better to have at least a theoretical chance to deteriorate their capability and developmental trajectory in a war than allow communists to destroy us all once they peacefully develop further in the future?"
And like I said, China simply isn't interested in anything outside of the 1st Island chain,
So, that means that the US can either start a war there, or it simply won't happen anywhere.
Are you sure that the US even has any surge capacity left to employ at all?
Didn't you see what happened to that pier in Gaza yesterday?
Or did you see their snail-like production and delivery to Ukraine?
They are not particularly famous for their industry anymore (including both construction and manufacturing).
They can't even currently undergo proper maintenance on their existing vessels and all over deadlines in building new ones.
With what capacity would they be able to do war-like build-up?
They are basically left to go in with what they already have at this point.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Aren't those clear signs that the US is woefully unprepared for military conflict with China? How long will US stocks of air defense missiles last in a conflict with China? Does the US even have as many SM-3s as China has AShBMs?