If it would be a sure conclusion China would have already acted.
That's a very wrong way of thinking. Would you fight right away someone you can beat, but in return have to stay in a hospital bed for a month, or would you rather wait and train some more until when you could beat him with some minimal damage, and a few bruises, and you don't have to wait in hospital at all? In both cases, you win, but the second option is still preferable. This is the analogy describing how they think. How many died, how much toll will there be on the economy, etc? As they are non-emotional technocrats, they can wait as long as humanly possible to achieve the most optimal and most efficient result. Sure conclusion =/= most efficient outcome. They passed a relative "sure conclusion" level of strength a long time ago, they are now looking to achieve a level where they could do it with the least possible fallout possible.
repercussions of initiating armed reunification would result in severe negative economic consequences.
That depends on the outcome. The US industry and society boomed post WW2 for example once they emerged victorious.
If the outcome is victorious for China, imagine the upside potential they would get economically and geopolitically in the following years after that.
Imagine the perception switch in the entire world once everyone realizes they are the world's new biggest superpower, not some kind of cheap factory of the world.
Many Chinese products have quality for example, but they lack the brand perception, that could rise from national strength perception, that's why they can't price it higher like the Western firms can and enjoy higher profit margins for essentially no reason.
I'm of a firm conviction that if the US loses, that would mean the collapse of that entire country itself, alongside the EU (the US is its sole reason for existence), and their economies, as well.
That leaves China to gobble up global market share for many industries the West dominated so far faster than before, get more orders, etc...
The short-term damage will be severe, but over time, I think that China will have reached its peak developmental goal faster.
There's also capital and high-quality human capital flying to your country from all over the world once you become that kind of a first superpower.
War would happen if a megalomaniac and insane leader takes power in America, who will not care about unfavorable power balances and just wants to attack because they can. Which is not completely impossible.
I think that by this point, it is the US mainstream course to initiate a war against China in both parties due to fear of its exponential rise. It is just that they can't launch it out of thin air. How would that look in the eyes of the domestic and international public?
That's why there needs to be years of creeping escalation and salami slicing before that, to slowly provoke China into a war, that is the whole use-case they have for Taiwan and the Philipines leaderships they control as they are unfit for actual fighting against China.
I would argue that from a cost benefit analysis, it will likely never make sense for China to initiate a military reunification, even if China had complete military superiority over the US and given the likelihood is that there will be a political settlement.
The likelihood of a political settlement is near zero if you look at actual data and trends observed in it as well as daily news. Why is it near zero? If it didn't happen in the last 70 years when people were much closer, it certainly won't happen in the future, in the next 70 years, when you have pro-unification voices in Taiwan decimated over time to a level of statistical error nearly, DPP taking power from KMT for 3 consecutive terms already, and rising "Taiwanese" ethnic identity in polling, etc. Political settlement would happen only if the US disintegrated on its own one day.
