PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

azn_cyniq said:

This is absolutely true. Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo because Taiwan's economy is fairly strong and the quality of life is quite good. Why would they want to change that? The ones pushing Taiwan to change the status quo are the Americans. Most of us (blue and green) despise many of the Westerners living in Taiwan. They love to talk about "freedom and democracy" but it's clear to us that they just hate Chinese people and see Taiwan as a weapon to use against China. I was in Taiwan recently and some of the stuff my Taiwanese friends said about Westerners (Americans in particular) shocked me. You guys already know where I stand on most issues, so you should know that it takes quite a lot to shock me. Taiwanese people won't say it to their faces, but the presence of Western agitators in Taiwan is not appreciated at all.

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I hope AR never happens and that some form of peaceful compromise can be reached in future decades. Perhaps some sort of federated model where Taiwanese residents can have self-governance and self-policing. At the minimum, as long as status-quo is respected, I would rather not see AR taking place.

azn_cyniq said:

This is absolutely true. Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo because Taiwan's economy is fairly strong and the quality of life is quite good. Why would they want to change that? The ones pushing Taiwan to change the status quo are the Americans. Most of us (blue and green) despise many of the Westerners living in Taiwan. They love to talk about "freedom and democracy" but it's clear to us that they just hate Chinese people and see Taiwan as a weapon to use against China. I was in Taiwan recently and some of the stuff my Taiwanese friends said about Westerners (Americans in particular) shocked me. You guys already know where I stand on most issues, so you should know that it takes quite a lot to shock me. Taiwanese people won't say it to their faces, but the presence of Western agitators in Taiwan is not appreciated at all.

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This is reassuring. I for one, would be down for the open season after reunification, where these parasites are weeded out and dealt with.
Unfortunately, if it is a peaceful reunification (no blockade), the parasites would have fled, just like their compatriots during the HK riots.

TK3600 said:

Here is where I disagree with you. The favorable trade is harming chance of peaceful reunification. You must make them suffer, and you must make yourself look good. This is how you defeat false sense of superiority, and make them reconsider their relative position. Once they recognize that, they realize what a shithole they live in, they begin to agitate for reunification. Making them live in comfort is no longer productive.

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I do not know the particularities of Chinese mainland and island relations, but that seems to be a too slow process to work well.

Taiwan is basically taken over by American NGOs, advisors and so on. That Taiwanese become poorer in relation with mainland does not change that dominion.
Americans would have enough time to react and plan other ways to oppose Taiwanese to the mainland. They don't even need the majority of Taiwanese to agree, just a radicalized minority in the power positions as well as some kind of radicals in the streets.

You just need to check the Ukraine Russia relation to see how this work. Ukrainians were poorer, their country less develop, with this being obvious to any traveller that go to both countries, and still Americans manage to promote an ideology where ukranians thing they are superior.
The economical part also did not matter, Ukraine suffered tremendously from the economical decoupling with Russia, since many industries there worked together. Basically all aerospace ukranian industry disappeared without its Russian customers.

Ukranians are basically as russians as the taiwanese are chinese. And they were same country until only 30 years ago. Taiwan has been effectively divided for 70 years. What worked on one side would work on the other.

If you look at history I think that the only path to peaceful reunification is to win a decisive battle against the americans. If you want to enter Taiwan without destroying nothing of the Island you need to defeat the american Navy (plus japanese and whoever it intervernes) in the Pacific. Then you can blockade the island and they will surrender in days.

The example of eastern Germany is very bad, it is almost unique in history and came from some kind of soviet idealism plus the stupidity of Gorbachev.
No other empire in history has given up territories just like that, and you can assure that americans will not do it.

To recover Taiwan you need to defeat them in battle, and possibly use that defeat to take from them Okinawa and even Guam. Thats how things work

FriedRiceNSpice said:

I hope AR never happens and that some form of peaceful compromise can be reached in future decades. Perhaps some sort of federated model where Taiwanese residents can have self-governance and self-policing. At the minimum, as long as status-quo is respected, I would rather not see AR taking place.

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There's not much resources nor industry stashed inside Taiwan, and frankly a lot of it is already extracted by internal migration. China is in Taiwan because of historical and national security issues.

If China doesn't hold Taiwan, then who will? We took it originally from the Netherlands ages ago, and the Dutch have never asked for reparations or claimed it back. Nazi Japan used it as a springboard during its war with China, obviously all it's claims are 1000% invalidated due to being inhuman monsters and defeated by China, same reason Russia isn't about to award Moscowy and France isn't about to award the historical nazi German occupations back to Germany.

The CPC is ok with having KMT be a part of the democratic process, they are a part of congress right now and have been for decades. As long as Taiwan is adequately defended according to the current threat level, the locals could easily vote for whichever party they want. China has afforded (in my opinion far overdue) respect to the KMT due to historical reasons, rather than treating them as any other rebel or stateless armed group.

Santamaria said:

Ukranians are basically as russians as the taiwanese are chinese. And they were same country until only 30 years ago. Taiwan has been effectively divided for 70 years. What worked on one side would work on the other.

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Ukraine has its own national institutes and arguably its own history, if not that at least some legal legitimacy today. They have a large population, (some) support from the UN and their own distinct culture, official military and so on. It is not the same situation as in China.

You actually have your apt comparison to Taiwan there in the Donbass. Except I guess there are few/no ethnic American living in Taiwan, and China is rather hands off rather than belligerent in its treatment of the self ruled areas. The Donbass republics are nothing without Russia, and without a full scale invasion by Russia, they would be at the mercy of Kiev to reintegrate at whatever terms Ukraine itself decides. And so is the case for Taiwan as well, without a full scale invasion by USA, it's just a question of what tactic Beijing chooses to maintain control.

Ukraine eventually chose an openly hostile path, but as I see it that was born out of weakness rather than strength. Sporadic shelling achieves nothing without destruction of leadership, blockade and physical expulsion of the uprising. It's just something Ukraine did to show it's own nationalist and NATO that they are doing something. The balance of power is much more in Russia's favor inside Ukraine than it is in US favor inside China. Ukraine is an example of a country so focused on symbolic action that they never developed real national security planning, and now they're paying the price.

Santamaria said:

Ukranians are basically as russians as the taiwanese are chinese. And they were same country until only 30 years ago. Taiwan has been effectively divided for 70 years. What worked on one side would work on the other.

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No, Ukrainians are not basically Russians! They may have originally been one people, but since the Mongol invasions Ukrainians have diverged and been a separate people for almost half a millennium. If they were Russians, why were they subject to, "Russification," during Czarist days, and why did they resist and resent such attempts? The Russians have no one but themselves to blame for the gulf between the two peoples. Did the Russians treat Ukrainians like Russians during the Holodomor? Why do you think the Ukrainians welcome the Germans as liberators? Ukrainian history is truly sad actually, they've been subject to oppression from: Mongols, Poles, Russians, Austrians, and Germans. Taiwanese on the other hand are certainly Chinese, and have never been subject to oppression from mainland Chinese, it takes a lot longer than 70 years for a people to diverge.

Index said:

If China doesn't hold Taiwan, then who will? We took it originally from the Netherlands ages ago, and the Dutch have never asked for reparations or claimed it back. Nazi Japan used it as a springboard during its war with China, obviously all it's claims are 1000% invalidated due to being inhuman monsters and defeated by China, same reason Russia isn't about to award Moscowy and France isn't about to award the historical nazi German occupations back to Germany.

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I wouldn't even consider the Dutch as having had possession of Taiwan. They controlled parts of Taiwan, while other parts were controlled by Spanish and the indigenous peoples.

Santamaria said:

I do not know the particularities of Chinese mainland and island relations, but that seems to be a too slow process to work well.

Taiwan is basically taken over by American NGOs, advisors and so on. That Taiwanese become poorer in relation with mainland does not change that dominion.
Americans would have enough time to react and plan other ways to oppose Taiwanese to the mainland. They don't even need the majority of Taiwanese to agree, just a radicalized minority in the power positions as well as some kind of radicals in the streets.

You just need to check the Ukraine Russia relation to see how this work. Ukrainians were poorer, their country less develop, with this being obvious to any traveller that go to both countries, and still Americans manage to promote an ideology where ukranians thing they are superior.
The economical part also did not matter, Ukraine suffered tremendously from the economical decoupling with Russia, since many industries there worked together. Basically all aerospace ukranian industry disappeared without its Russian customers.

Ukranians are basically as russians as the taiwanese are chinese. And they were same country until only 30 years ago. Taiwan has been effectively divided for 70 years. What worked on one side would work on the other.

If you look at history I think that the only path to peaceful reunification is to win a decisive battle against the americans. If you want to enter Taiwan without destroying nothing of the Island you need to defeat the american Navy (plus japanese and whoever it intervernes) in the Pacific. Then you can blockade the island and they will surrender in days.

The example of eastern Germany is very bad, it is almost unique in history and came from some kind of soviet idealism plus the stupidity of Gorbachev.
No other empire in history has given up territories just like that, and you can assure that americans will not do it.

To recover Taiwan you need to defeat them in battle, and possibly use that defeat to take from them Okinawa and even Guam. Thats how things work

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Frankly I am more in favor of armed unification, but under ideal circumstances a peaceful annexation requires use of force as well. That was my point.

Unlike Ukraine, the military is a complete overmatch. The island is easily cut off. There is no issue for an armed unification today, it is the peaceful one that is extremely challenging.

Personally I view military confrontation as a bonus rather than a flaw. If it is a conflict initiated under favorable condition, it would put American in a bind. They can either lose credibility and fold, or lose a conflict. The former is a freebie. The latter is rewarding on its own. A direct victory over US will immediately shift global order into China from US. Forcing US to retreat due to economic reason will not achieve the same effect, it would only affect Pacifics.

Santamaria said:

Ukranians are basically as russians as the taiwanese are chinese. And they were same country until only 30 years ago. Taiwan has been effectively divided for 70 years. What worked on one side would work on the other.

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This isn't completely true. Taiwanese people not only speak the same language as mainland Chinese people, they speak the same dialect (Mandarin). In fact, most Taiwanese people can trace their origins to Quanzhou and Zhangzhou, two cities in Fujian, China. Taiwan and China are more similar to North Korea and South Korea than to Ukraine and Russia. This doesn't mean that Taiwanese people are obligated to support every decision that the CPC makes. However, it does mean that Taiwanese people and American people are not on the same page regarding China. American opposition to China is driven by blind hatred whereas Taiwanese opposition to China is driven by a fear of the unknown. In short, the status quo is great and most Taiwanese people don't feel a need to change it.

This is an important distinction, because the fact that Taiwanese people are ethnically Chinese means that a Taiwanese person can go from being anti-China to being pro-China in the snap of a finger. I have seen this happen many times. Taiwanese people will not fight mainland Chinese people to the death for the sake of Western interests.

Santamaria said:

Taiwan is basically taken over by American NGOs, advisors and so on.

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Unfortunately, this is true. Not all aspects of American influence are bad. However, they are forcing the worst aspects of American decadence onto Taiwan.

Index said:

Ukraine has its own national institutes and arguably its own history, if not that at least some legal legitimacy today. They have a large population, (some) support from the UN and their own distinct culture, official military and so on. It is not the same situation as in China.

You actually have your apt comparison to Taiwan there in the Donbass. Except I guess there are few/no ethnic American living in Taiwan, and China is rather hands off rather than belligerent in its treatment of the self ruled areas. The Donbass republics are nothing without Russia, and without a full scale invasion by Russia, they would be at the mercy of Kiev to reintegrate at whatever terms Ukraine itself decides. And so is the case for Taiwan as well, without a full scale invasion by USA, it's just a question of what tactic Beijing chooses to maintain control.

Ukraine eventually chose an openly hostile path, but as I see it that was born out of weakness rather than strength. Sporadic shelling achieves nothing without destruction of leadership, blockade and physical expulsion of the uprising. It's just something Ukraine did to show it's own nationalist and NATO that they are doing something. The balance of power is much more in Russia's favor inside Ukraine than it is in US favor inside China. Ukraine is an example of a country so focused on symbolic action that they never developed real national security planning, and now they're paying the price.

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They have exactly the same than Taiwan, their population is probably around 30 million and Taiwanese 20 million. Both have their own institutions nowadays, official military and so on.
The only change is the UN recognisition that means basically zero

FriedRiceNSpice said:

No, Ukrainians are not basically Russians! They may have originally been one people, but since the Mongol invasions Ukrainians have diverged and been a separate people for almost half a millennium. If they were Russians, why were they subject to, "Russification," during Czarist days, and why did they resist and resent such attempts? The Russians have no one but themselves to blame for the gulf between the two peoples. Did the Russians treat Ukrainians like Russians during the Holodomor? Why do you think the Ukrainians welcome the Germans as liberators? Ukrainian history is truly sad actually, they've been subject to oppression from: Mongols, Poles, Russians, Austrians, and Germans. Taiwanese on the other hand are certainly Chinese, it takes a lot longer than 70 years for a people to diverge.

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Too much western propaganda and lack of understanding of history here. All you are talking about applies to a very big minority of current ukrainan land and population that lived under the austro hugnarian emprire. That is like 10% of the current country.

1 - Ukrainians have diverged due to mongol invasion? Look the history. Basically all southern and eastern Ukraine was an unpopulated conflict region under the Crimean Khanate. It was an unpopulated and it was populated with people coming from Moscow in sucessive waves. I am spanish, there are generals of Spain who served under Catherine the great and participated in that conflict. One is Jose de Ribas and I have read all his writtens. He participated in founding Mariupol, Odessa and other cities and it is clearly state in his books that they brough population from Russia because it was unpopulated lands.
So there is no even question that the majority of Ukraine is literally same people who were living in Moscow.
It is a very similar historical process tho the one happened in Spain during the process we call Reconquista. People from north spain was brough to the unpopulated central area (where I am from).

2 - That thing call russification is absurd propaganda without any historical base. As I explained most of current Ukraine is populated by people brought from Russia. How can russify such people?
And most of the rest of ukraine have been Russian for centuries, and they were recovered from either catholic germanic kigndoms either muslims mongols?
Ukranian are eastern slavs orthodox. Who do you think they were closer and prefered to be with?

3 - What the hell you are talking about Ukranians welcoming the Germans? Stop reading propaganda seriously. Those Ukranians welcoming the germans like Bandera were not even born in the current territory of Ukraine.

4 - Ukranian history is no sad. It is inexistent. They are same as Russians. What is sad is people like you promoting fantasies to divide people who are identical.
I have meet lot of ukranian and russians and they are more simialr than a german from bavaria and a german from berlin. Or than a spanish from the north and andalusia

5 - Your talk about ukranians being oppressed is the most woke and apocrif thing I have read today. Ukranians were fully part of Russia, with their writers living in Saint Petersburg, their militars ascending excatly in the same way than any other Russian, etc


I repeat my point. Ukranians are as Russians as Taiwanese Chinese. There is literally no ethnic, religious or cultural difference between any of thos groups.
You are same people when you have same ethnic, religion, language and historical capital. All the rest is absurd post modernism.

And the result of this is that the same ideological tactics that have been applied to Ukraine are applicable (and are being applied) to Taiwan.
The West start to promote all kind of fantasy differences between mainland and island

Santamaria said:

I repeat my point. Ukranians are as Russians as Taiwanese Chinese. There is literally no ethnic, religious or cultural difference between any of thos groups.

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Ukrainians and Russians speak different languages. Also, modern genetic analysis shows that Ukrainians and Russians are clearly genetically distinct populations. In fact, Ukrainians show no closer genetic affinity with Russians than they do to Poles. Genetic evidence is incompatible with the theory that any significant majority of Ukrainians could be descended from settlers from Moscow.

azn_cyniq said:

This doesn't mean that Taiwanese people are obligated to support every decision that the CPC makes.

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Yes, they are, since they live in a province of a country that the CPC legitimately governs with both overwhelming domestic and international support.

If we add the population of mainland and Taiwan together, then it means that Taiwan political parties (then KMT, now DPP) have the support of only around 1.6% of people of the entire country (entire China), whereas CPC has the rest.

That's like saying that Bavaria isn't obligated to support every decision Germany makes. Yes, they might not like it, but they must oblige with it if it is pertaining to them.

They could work some kind of deal with the mainland when they have some level of autonomy as HK, but since they are not doing that, it means it is basically an occupied renegade province. That's how the CPC looks at this.

That's like some Mexican cartel controlling a province of Mexico, and you say that people under their informal temporary rule are not obliged to follow Mexican laws, just because the cartel ruling them is also at least ethnic Mexican (cartels in this case are KMT and DPP).

But, what makes it even worse in this case, is that those Mexican cartels at least don't have the support of some hostile international powers of Mexico, whereas Taiwan separatists currently administering the island are directly collaborating with China's biggest enemy.

azn_cyniq said:

However, it does mean that Taiwanese people and American people are not on the same page regarding China.

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To me, they look like they are nearly 100% on the same page, or if not, the Taiwanese have an even more "hawkish" view toward mainland China, than even the US, if we judge from Lai's recent speech and many other things (this is election year from the US, that's why they might didn't go fully on backing his statements). Yeah, you could do mental gymnastics and separate Taiwanese people from the government, but the people voted for that government clearly in an election a few months ago. But, I would like to add that fundamentally this still is the US fault since it mass-brainwashed the said population to vote like that in the first place, Taiwanese people shouldn't be blamed.

azn_cyniq said:

American opposition to China is driven by blind hatred whereas Taiwanese opposition to China is driven by a fear of the unknown. In short, the status quo is great and most Taiwanese people don't feel a need to change it.

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American opposition toward China yes is partially driven by hatred, but also extreme fear. Taiwanese opposition to China is a feel mostly driven by the US brainwashing, nothing else.

Yeah, they would like the status quo, but they are inadvertently voting for people who are against it over and over again. Once again, not their fault, since like I said, they are brainwashed by the US. (You see that clown how proud he wears that cowboy hat, haha).

azn_cyniq said:

This is an important distinction, because the fact that Taiwanese people are ethnically Chinese means that a Taiwanese person can go from being anti-China to being pro-China in the snap of a finger.

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Yeah, but only if they get a "shock therapy" first. That's what history tells us.

azn_cyniq said:

I have seen this happen many times. Taiwanese people will not fight mainland Chinese people to the death for the sake of Western interests.

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They don't need to fight, the US will fight, or better said try to fight. What they need to do, is just to continue provoking China to start the war as fast as possible.