PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
plawolf said:
That decision isn’t about making money or corruption, it was an attempt to avoid AR by promoting economic interdependence and cultural exchange to get past all the propaganda of Taiwan and the western MSM.

It is working to a degree based on the millions of Taiwanese that live and work in mainland China.

It also gives China a proxy vote as those in Taiwan who benefit from trade with China should vote against policies that will damage cross strait relations and thus their own economic well being.

It is proving to be insufficient to totally offset all the propaganda and the sheer stupidity of many on the island. But it was a project worth doing.

I personally see the revoking of favourable trading terms as a sign that AR is becoming inevitable, as it means that Beijing is giving up attempts to peacefully sway the people of Taiwan and is gearing up for AR.
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Here is where I disagree with you. The favorable trade is harming chance of peaceful reunification. You must make them suffer, and you must make yourself look good. This is how you defeat false sense of superiority, and make them reconsider their relative position. Once they recognize that, they realize what a shithole they live in, they begin to agitate for reunification. Making them live in comfort is no longer productive.

That is not to say it was not a good idea at some point. It served to build ties back when hostility was extreme. The policy served to reduce extreme hostility. That is no longer needed. What is needed now is to build image of dominance, so they have a reason to submit. Right now they are in a weird spot where they no longer actively hate mainland, but has zero reason to submit.

Because of this, I argue use of force is required for peaceful reunification. Friendliness does not lead to submission, you need sense of revere and respect, so a combination of coercion and show of dominance is required. This is where military comes in. Once the political infiltration is complete, Chinese military needs to invade, and make the collaborators submit without resistance. This of course is easier said than done. There is no mainland sympathizer harassing pro-independence politicians. There is no citizen movement that agitate for change. How do you make it happen? First you must make people on the island feel so uncomfortable with their life they reject status quo. Feeding them with money don't make it happen. Then mainland must actively ferment unrest through influence operation and etc. Right now I dont see those efforts. I only see action contradicting that, which are these stupid charity operations.

You see variations of this playbook throughout history, including those people WANTING to reunify. You see formation of Germany required a level of mob violence and dissatisfaction, despite forming German state was a popular opinion. Same goes for formation of Italy and what not. German 1938 'peaceful annexation' of Austria. If some form of violence is required for majority that WANT to unite, how can you expect any less violence to convince a group of people that are ambivalent?

It may seem contradictory that peaceful reunification involves both forging friendship and a level of bullying, but it is exactly the case. Very often complex goals requires 'contradictory actions' at different stage. To gain muscle you need to do intense exercise, but you also need to rest well. Sleeping a lot is directly contradictory of intense exercise, yet both are needed. Just sleeping a lot or just exercise without good rest will not lead to strong body. The same can be said of Chinese reunification. Building friendship and intense coersion are both needed at different stage, despite seemingly opposite actions.
 
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I

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
Here is where I disagree with you. The favorable trade is harming chance of peaceful reunification. You must make them suffer, and you must make yourself look good. This is how you defeat false sense of superiority, and make them reconsider their relative position. Once they recognize that, they realize what a shithole they live in, they begin to agitate for reunification. Making them live in comfort is no longer productive.

That is not to say it was not a good idea at some point. It served to build ties back when hostility was extreme. The policy served to reduce extreme hostility. That is no longer needed. What is needed now is to build image of dominance, so they have a reason to submit. Right now they are in a weird spot where they no longer actively hate mainland, but has zero reason to submit.

Because of this, I argue use of force is required for peaceful reunification. Friendliness does not lead to submission, you need sense of revere and respect, so a combination of coercion and show of dominance is required. This is where military comes in. Once the political infiltration is complete, Chinese military needs to invade, and make the collaborators submit without resistance. This of course is easier said than done. There is no mainland sympathizer harassing pro-independence politicians. There is no citizen movement that agitate for change. How do you make it happen? First you must make people on the island feel so uncomfortable with their life they reject status quo. Feeding them with money don't make it happen. Then mainland must actively ferment unrest through influence operation and etc. Right now I dont see those efforts. I only see action contradicting that, which are these stupid charity operations.

You see variations of this playbook throughout history, including those people WANTING to reunify. You see formation of Germany required a level of mob violence and dissatisfaction, despite forming German state was a popular opinion. Same goes for formation of Italy and what not. German 1938 'peaceful annexation' of Austria. If some form of violence is required for majority that WANT to unite, how can you expect any less violence to convince a group of people that are ambivalent?

It may seem contradictory that peaceful reunification involves both forging friendship and a level of bullying, but it is exactly the case. Very often complex goals requires 'contradictory actions' at different stage. To gain muscle you need to do intense exercise, but you also need to rest well. Sleeping a lot is directly contradictory of intense exercise, yet both are needed. Just sleeping a lot or just exercise without good rest will not lead to strong body. The same can be said of Chinese reunification. Building friendship and intense coersion are both needed at different stage, despite seemingly opposite actions.
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What has been KMT's most powerful weapon by far is their human shields. It's the no1 factor we can't get rid of them and are stuck negotiating peacefully.

Allowing and encouraging migrant workers is helpful to China because it helps deprive the KMT of their shields. With 3 million out of 20 million living full time in government controlled areas, how many of their relatives do you think they can also help save if the civil war started up again?

It's increasingly clear that China will have to use violence to end the chaos. There will be collateral damage. But if China can extract millions of civilians out of the warzone first, then further use humane tactics by corraling the remainder into local refugee zones, we would be looking at collateral of maybe a few thousands.

Whereas how many do you reckon die if they just blockade everything.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
Here is where I disagree with you. The favorable trade is harming chance of peaceful reunification. You must make them suffer, and you must make yourself look good. This is how you defeat false sense of superiority, and make them reconsider their relative position. Once they recognize that, they realize what a shithole they live in, they begin to agitate for reunification. Making them live in comfort is no longer productive.

That is not to say it was not a good idea at some point. It served to build ties back when hostility was extreme. The policy served to reduce extreme hostility. That is no longer needed. What is needed now is to build image of dominance, so they have a reason to submit. Right now they are in a weird spot where they no longer actively hate mainland, but has zero reason to submit.

Because of this, I argue use of force is required for peaceful reunification. Friendliness does not lead to submission, you need sense of revere and respect, so a combination of coercion and show of dominance is required. This is where military comes in. Once the political infiltration is complete, Chinese military needs to invade, and make the collaborators submit without resistance. This of course is easier said than done. There is no mainland sympathizer harassing pro-independence politicians. There is no citizen movement that agitate for change. How do you make it happen? First you must make people on the island feel so uncomfortable with their life they reject status quo. Feeding them with money don't make it happen. Then mainland must actively ferment unrest through influence operation and etc. Right now I dont see those efforts. I only see action contradicting that, which are these stupid charity operations.

You see variations of this playbook throughout history, including those people WANTING to reunify. You see formation of Germany required a level of mob violence and dissatisfaction, despite forming German state was a popular opinion. Same goes for formation of Italy and what not. German 1938 'peaceful annexation' of Austria. If some form of violence is required for majority that WANT to unite, how can you expect any less violence to convince a group of people that are ambivalent?

It may seem contradictory that peaceful reunification involves both forging friendship and a level of bullying, but it is exactly the case. Very often complex goals requires 'contradictory actions' at different stage. To gain muscle you need to do intense exercise, but you also need to rest well. Sleeping a lot is directly contradictory of intense exercise, yet both are needed. Just sleeping a lot or just exercise without good rest will not lead to strong body. The same can be said of Chinese reunification. Building friendship and intense coersion are both needed at different stage, despite seemingly opposite actions.
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There is a better way of stating this. Taiwan must be forcefully deindustrialized, Taiwanese industries (petrochemicals pollution, coal plant smog, TSMC water overusage) is a blight on our precious 宝岛.

Xi's golden phrase is very apt here.
“China highly values ecological and environmental protection. Guided by the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, the country advocates harmonious coexistence between humans and nature, and sticks to the path of green and sustainable development.”

Taiwan is also home to the native 高山族, their homelands should be protected and returned to a more hospitable environment. Most of Taiwan island could be turned into a national nature preserve. Since the work of restoring Taiwan is a long one, we must start early, the earlier the better. We can start this process by helping Taiwanese entrepreneurs move their industries to the mainland, and tariff/sanction the rest.
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
coolgod said:
Taiwan is also home to the native 高山族, their homelands should be protected and returned to a more hospitable environment. Most of Taiwan island could be turned into a national nature preserve. Since the work of restoring Taiwan is a long one, we must start early, the earlier the better. We can start this process by helping Taiwanese entrepreneurs move their industries to the mainland, and tariff/sanction the rest.
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That is a workable strategy. Apply the same environmental standards as in coastal Chinese provinces and penalize/bar Taiwanese companies that fail to meet those standards, while at the same time incentivize Taiwanese businesses to move ever increasing parts of their operations/production to the mainland. As long as its not blanket tariffs on all Taiwanese companies.
 
A

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
These people are the silent majority who favours the status quo.

If Taiwan does push China into AR, the build ip to the conflict should be done as a case study in the dangers of democracy on how malicious foreign powers can manipulate people into voting for their own doom.
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This is absolutely true. Most Taiwanese people prefer the status quo because Taiwan's economy is fairly strong and the quality of life is quite good. Why would they want to change that? The ones pushing Taiwan to change the status quo are the Americans. Most of us (blue and green) despise many of the Westerners living in Taiwan. They love to talk about "freedom and democracy" but it's clear to us that they just hate Chinese people and see Taiwan as a weapon to use against China. I was in Taiwan recently and some of the stuff my Taiwanese friends said about Westerners (Americans in particular) shocked me. You guys already know where I stand on most issues, so you should know that it takes quite a lot to shock me. Taiwanese people won't say it to their faces, but the presence of Western agitators in Taiwan is not appreciated at all.
 
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