PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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W20

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"Ukrainians and Russians speak different languages."

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Volynian nationalists constantly in their arguments use the word "Ukrainian" with two meanings, on the one hand to refer to Volynia-Galicia and, on the other hand, to refer to Bolshevik-Ukraine-1954.

And they also cheat by using "Russia" as a synonym for USSR, and "Russians" as a synonym for Bolsheviks. Let's remember that Stalin was a Georgian thug who hated Russia with all his soul, he was followed by Khrushchev who was the boss of Ukrainian Bolsheviks, who was followed by an Ukrainian: Brevnev.
 
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azn_cyniq

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Serb said:
Yes, they are, since they live in a province of a country that the CPC legitimately governs with both overwhelming domestic and international support.

If we add the population of mainland and Taiwan together, then it means that Taiwan political parties (then KMT, now DPP) have the support of only around 1.6% of people of the entire country (entire China), whereas CPC has the rest.

That's like saying that Bavaria isn't obligated to support every decision Germany makes. Yes, they might not like it, but they must oblige with it if it is pertaining to them.

They could work some kind of deal with the mainland when they have some level of autonomy as HK, but since they are not doing that, it means it is basically an occupied renegade province. That's how the CPC looks at this.

That's like some Mexican cartel controlling a province of Mexico, and you say that people under their informal temporary rule are not obliged to follow Mexican laws, just because the cartel ruling them is also at least ethnic Mexican (cartels in this case are KMT and DPP).

But, what makes it even worse in this case, is that those Mexican cartels at least don't have the support of some hostile international powers of Mexico, whereas Taiwan separatists currently administering the island are directly collaborating with China's biggest enemy.





To me, they look like they are nearly 100% on the same page, or if not, the Taiwanese have an even more "hawkish" view toward mainland China, than even the US, if we judge from Lai's recent speech and many other things (this is election year from the US, that's why they might didn't go fully on backing his statements). Yeah, you could do mental gymnastics and separate Taiwanese people from the government, but the people voted for that government clearly in an election a few months ago. But, I would like to add that fundamentally this still is the US fault since it mass-brainwashed the said population to vote like that in the first place, Taiwanese people shouldn't be blamed.





American opposition toward China yes is partially driven by hatred, but also extreme fear. Taiwanese opposition to China is a feel mostly driven by the US brainwashing, nothing else.

Yeah, they would like the status quo, but they are inadvertently voting for people who are against it over and over again. Once again, not their fault, since like I said, they are brainwashed by the US. (You see that clown how proud he wears that cowboy hat, haha).





Yeah, but only if they get a "shock therapy" first. That's what history tells us.





They don't need to fight, the US will fight, or better said try to fight. What they need to do, is just to continue provoking China to start the war as fast as possible.
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What you say is harsh, but it is the truth. I appreciate it.
 
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Santamaria

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azn_cyniq said:
This isn't completely true. Taiwanese people not only speak the same language as mainland Chinese people, they speak the same dialect (Mandarin). In fact, most Taiwanese people can trace their origins to Quanzhou and Zhangzhou, two cities in Fujian, China. Taiwan and China are more similar to North Korea and South Korea than to Ukraine and Russia. This doesn't mean that Taiwanese people are obligated to support every decision that the CPC makes. However, it does mean that Taiwanese people and American people are not on the same page regarding China. American opposition to China is driven by blind hatred whereas Taiwanese opposition to China is driven by a fear of the unknown. In short, the status quo is great and most Taiwanese people don't feel a need to change it.

This is an important distinction, because the fact that Taiwanese people are ethnically Chinese means that a Taiwanese person can go from being anti-China to being pro-China in the snap of a finger. I have seen this happen many times. Taiwanese people will not fight mainland Chinese people to the death for the sake of Western interests.
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To be honest most Ukrainians I have met in my live (more than 20) spoke russian as native language and they were from different regions.

And ethnically they are also the same, I think etnically even Poles and russians are basically identical (but those have real religious and language divisions).

The question of Ukraine is off topic here, and I apologize I only brought it in relation of the possibility of creating animosity between Taiwanese and chinese.

I think too many people have a distorted idea of how ideological influence works, and Ukraine is a good example. Just 35 years ago the majority of ukraine was superhappy being part of a state with capital on Moscow ( as it was shown in the referendum on keeping the Soviet Union together). All elections later have shown majoritarian desire by ukranians of keep the good relation with Moscow.

Zelensky won against Poroshenko because Zelensky was a russian speaker who was campaigning for having good relation with Russia.

But you have them now, in a war.

When you have the control of the bureocrazy, media, and elites of one country its straighforward to make that country (or region) do whatever you want.

In Ukraine there were many pro Russian writers and politicians. What happened is that all of them ended living in Russia or being killed. Same will happen in Taiwan

azn_cyniq said:
Unfortunately, this is true. Not all aspects of American influence are bad. However, they are forcing the worst aspects of American decadence onto Taiwan.
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I think you are mistaken. All aspects of American influence are very bad.
For an American a Taiwanese is nobody, all their influence is dedicated to make taiwan a tool against China. The issue is not the "american decadence", the issue is them manipulating taiwan into being a pawn to be sacrifized.
 
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Index

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@Serb I think you are reading too much into supposed "elections" that are impossible to audit and doesn't follow legal norms.

It is not as if the rest of China doesn't have some traitors. They are equally unwelcome to stay as those on Taiwan. And at the same time, there are many both in and outside Taiwan who will help defend the country in the event of an unprecedented US or Japanese attack.

The overwhelming majority in China wishes for the status quo, that is, Taiwan to remain in the country. That's your most important statistic right there.
 
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Santamaria

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FriedRiceNSpice said:
Ukrainians and Russians speak different languages. Also, modern genetic analysis shows that Ukrainians and Russians are clearly genetically distinct populations. In fact, Ukrainians show no closer genetic affinity with Russians than they do to Poles. Genetic evidence is incompatible with the theory that any significant majority of Ukrainians could be descended from settlers from Moscow.
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This is simply a lie, both about language and about genetic analysis.
Majority of Ukrainians spoke Russian as native language as it was demonstrated in polls some decades ago. Ukrainian have been imposed since the 2000s. Ukrainian was not even considered a real language when I studied. It lacked litherature and standarisation, there were several dialects of Russian.
And in a personal experience, I have only met one ukranian out of more than 20 that I know that spoke Ukranian as native language. All of them, even some being pro Ukranian spoke Russian.

And by the way, same happens with Belarus (where my wife is from), out of the many people from Belarus I have met in my live never I found one who speak Belarussian at home.

They, as ukranians, learnt it in the school.
 
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Serb

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Index said:
@Serb I think you are reading too much into supposed "elections" that are impossible to audit and doesn't follow legal norms.
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I'm not from there, to know the people personally, so I can only speak about that kind of information that every outsider has available.

Not just elections, I read also identity polls trends, some general media reporting, etc.

Everything is basically going downhill in terms of Taiwanese separatism activity in my opinion.

Pro-unification voices disappearing, and Chinese ethnicity self-identifying also tanking over time. That's what the polls tell you about.




Or better said, let's say that elections could truly be tampered with, but if 90% of people voted against DPP provocations (moving away from the status quo), and only 10% voted for them, then whatever the hell they do to tamper with elections would be useless with that kind of a lead.




But, I am not saying that Taiwanese people should be blamed.

Since polls are showing that they respect the status quo to a certain extent, then why vote for a political option 100% going against that (DPP)?

The answer has to be about the US brainwashing over them.



Now you can say that they are at fault for falling for that brainwashing,

But to me, that's like victim-blaming.


We could then do mental gymnastics that the mainland is at fault too for being too weak to allow the US mass brainwashing over them to occur for so long.


So, that's why it is fair to not blame anyone for this situation. I'm just doing the analysis.


It is pretty clear that the only solution to all of this is, American defeat at the hands of China, alongside some form of shock therapy (blockade, targeted strikes) of Taiwan to reset everything.
 
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Santamaria

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azn_cyniq said:
This is an important distinction, because the fact that Taiwanese people are ethnically Chinese means that a Taiwanese person can go from being anti-China to being pro-China in the snap of a finger. I have seen this happen many times. Taiwanese people will not fight mainland Chinese people to the death for the sake of Western interests.
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Sadly you are wrong. People from the same ethnic have fought agaisnt each other promoted by foreign powers numerous time in history. Just some examples that come quicky to my mind:

Ancient history:

Iberian people allied with Romans against other Iberian in modern Spain and helping the Roman to conquer and romanize Spain (Hispania)

Galls allied with Julio Cesar against other Galls, and helping him to conquer the Galia.

Some Spanish Visigoth allying themselves with Arabs against other Spanish Visigoth and helping them during the Arab conquest of Spain

Modern Age
Tlaxcaltecas and other mesoamericans allied with Hernan Cortez and the spanish against the Aztecas.

Spanish war of succession that was a civil war of 13 years that destroyed the country with half Spain allied with french and other half allied with British, this war basically ended the Spanish empire, although it remained as a zombie a couple of centuries.

Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay fighting a war between themselves when they were (and are) literally the same people.

Panama, Colombia an Venezuela fighting and getting divided due to American interference. They are also literally same people.

Nowadays
Iranian peoples like the Kurdish doing terrorism against other Iranian people in Iran

South Korea fighting North Koreans

Pakistanis and Indians being crazy enemies. Mostly same ethnic although different religion

Croats and Serbs. Literally identical ethnic and language, only different religion. Fought a civil war that make a country that was powerful absolutely irrelevant

Ukrainians fighting Russians. Same ethnic, religion and language (the amount of videos of ukranian soldiers speaking russian is absolutly gargantuan)


Americans can perfectly make Taiwanese Chinese fight mainland Chinese. As historically happen they just need to colonize the elite of the country and offered them a kind of "amerizan citizenship", then elites of a country always can make the normal people do whatever.
Opinion of the people means basically ZERO, you change the information they receive you change the outcome.

The advantage for China is that Taiwan is an island that can be blockaded, but China will need to defeat the American navy, then force the local elites to surround. Maybe promising them to pardon them or whatever.
 
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FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

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Santamaria said:
The advantage for China is that Taiwan is an island that can be blockaded, but China will need to defeat the American navy, then force the local elites to surround. Maybe promising them to pardon them or whatever.
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Are there no competent military analysts in Taiwan that would realize US naval assets (outside of submarines, and even that is arguable) are unable to operate close enough to Taiwan to make any sort of impact whatsoever? US only wants to use Taiwan as a pawn to justify total economic, financial, and trade sanctions against China and isolate China internationally.
 
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Santamaria

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FriedRiceNSpice said:
Are there no competent military analysts in Taiwan that would realize US naval assets (outside of submarines, and even that is arguable) are unable to operate close enough to Taiwan to make any sort of impact whatsoever? US only wants to use Taiwan as a pawn to justify total economic, financial, and trade sanctions against China and isolate China internationally.
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If you take European armies and political class as a example, there is a system were only the stupid people are promoted and the intelligent and able to think critically rarely go above colonel level.

Probably there are many competent people in Taiwan, but I am almost sure that none of them reach positions with real power.

About the fight against the US and China navy I tend to think that China would dominate, but I don't think is possible to assure it. If it would be a sure conclusion China would have already acted.
 
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