PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

bsdnf said:

Guancha latest broadcast title: After the India-Pakistan air war, the most panicked may not be India and Pakistan

Like I previous reposted in Kashmir thread. Rafale essentially triggered a narrative clash between admirers of American & French weaponry. Taiwan has long maintained a hybrid approach - purchasing F-16Vs while upgrading F-16A/Bs, while still operating a substantial fleet of Mirage 2000s.

In the Taiwanese narrative, F-16V is superior to the F-16A/B, which is equivalent to the Mirage 2000, both surpassing the IDF. Rafale, though unobtainable, is portrayed as comparable to the J-20 and superior to the F-16V - a mythical weapon. However, the recent incident where Rafale easily shot down by J-10CE has completely upended this established narrative.

Maintaining the original narrative would equate to admitting that the entire air force would crumble upon contact with the PLAAF, eliminating any possibility of direct confrontation (though this aligns with our perception of reality).

Could they disparage French systems as worthless? Yet Taiwan's air force cannot realistically replace its Mirage 2000s, nor explain away decades of praise for these aircraft.

Now even staunchly pro-DPP military analyst who acknowledge the Rafale was taken down by J-10CE based on substantial evidence, and accused by fellow pro-DPP factions of being "Chinese collaborators". Taiwanese society finds itself engulfed in yet another storm of security narrative conflicts.

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bsdnf said:

Guancha latest broadcast title: After the India-Pakistan air war, the most panicked may not be India and Pakistan

Like I previous reposted in Kashmir thread The Kashmir conflict 2025. Rafale essentially triggered a narrative clash between admirers of American & French weaponry. Taiwan has long maintained a hybrid approach - they are purchasing F-16Vs and upgrading F-16A/Bs, while still operating a substantial fleet of Mirage 2000s.

In the Taiwanese narrative, F-16V is superior to the F-16A/B, which is equivalent to the Mirage 2000, both surpassing the IDF. Rafale, though unobtainable, is portrayed as comparable to the J-20 and superior to the F-16V - top treasure of French fighter jets. However, the recent incident where Rafale easily shot down by J-10CE has subversive challenge to their narrative.

Maintaining the original narrative would equate to admitting that the entire air force would crumble upon contact with the PLAAF, eliminating any possibility of direct confrontation (though this aligns with our perception of reality).

Could they disparage French systems as worthless? Yet Taiwan's air force cannot realistically replace its Mirage 2000s, nor explain away decades of praise for these aircraft.

Now even staunchly pro-DPP military analyst who acknowledge the Rafale was taken down by J-10CE based on substantial evidence, accused by fellow pro-DPP factions of being "Chinese collaborators". Taiwanese society finds itself engulfed in yet another storm of security narrative conflicts.

Click to expand...

drowingfish said:

For decades PLAAF's narrative on air superiority was that they would have SRBM do the heavy lifting to stop ROCAF from taking off. it appears now that might change. we now know that PLAAF can shoot down enemy fighters from relatively safe airspace with LRAAM. if this is the case then SRBMs simply needed to be concentrated against select airbases such as those on the east side, while air wings can be relied on to shoot fighters taking off from the more exposed west side of the island. the missiles and rockets not used to crater runways can be used for other high-value targets.

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zlixOS said:

While we must take into account that while the PL-15 has been vastly underestimated and Western 4.5th gen technology over, much of the reason that a Rafale was able to be shot down by a J-10C or JF-17 (doesn't even matter) was because of IAF incompetence. Prepare for the worst, and we will not end up in the same mindset as that of the Indian Man.

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zlixOS said:

While we must take into account that while the PL-15 has been vastly underestimated and Western 4.5th gen technology over, much of the reason that a Rafale was able to be shot down by a J-10C or JF-17 (doesn't even matter) was because of IAF incompetence. Prepare for the worst, and we will not end up in the same mindset as that of the Indian Man.

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lcloo said:

US airforce certainly did not under-estimate PL-15. People who under-estimate PL-15 are those who believe the anti-China narrative, including 99.999% of Indians.

Part of an old new:-
"Also, late last year (2021), Kendall in a virtual conference had noted that E-3 AWACs are

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to Chinese long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles (AAM) which are carried by the Chengdu J-10C, Shenyang J-16, and the Chengdu J-20, aircraft.

The missile is equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar seeker It is capable of Mach 4 speed – 4 times the speed of sound – and has a range exceeding 200 km."

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siegecrossbow said:

I think the main issue is that the calculus has changed. People used to think that PL-15/17 can only shoot down large, unmaneuverable aircraft like tankers and refuelers when fired at extreme range but PAF has demonstrated that it is not the case by hitting state of the art IAF aircraft flying within their airspace.

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AndrewS said:

But given that the PL-15 is a dual pulse missile, it should be obvious that it will be under powered flight during the terminal phase.

Therefore it should have better kinematics than any aircraft?

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