the state of China auto market is one where ICE is increasingly being wiped out and PHEV is achieving parity sales with BEVs. The main gainer here has been BYD. Now, taking 7 out of top 10 spots in weekly registrations.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
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the state of China auto market is one where ICE is increasingly being wiped out and PHEV is achieving parity sales with BEVs. The main gainer here has been BYD. Now, taking 7 out of top 10 spots in weekly registrations.
The global south also broadly doesn't have gasoline either and you can't burn wood in a car.
They import their gasoline at huge costs, even if they're oil producers since most can't even refine their own oil. For the cost of 3-5 years of gasoline imports for a mid sized African country they can build more power plants.
Ethiopia for example banned ICE cars.
As time goes on, more countries will just start outright banning privately owned gas cars. Then the ICE bagholders are stuck with their bags.
yes hybrids are good and are a no brainer advantage over ICE vehicles. not just regenerative braking and being able to usefully idle, but with a likely switch to serial hybrid instead of parallel hybrid, will be a game changer IMO.
that means the engine is 100% disconnected from the wheels and acts solely as an energy source for the generator. there is no need for mechanical transmission. that means the engine can run at its optimal speed all the time. wheels can be 100% digitally controlled via drive by wire. So for example instead of braking to slow down or using complicated gearboxes, you can just digitally adjust the average drive current down via PWM.
too bad for some countries that China's dominating in hybrids and electric drivetrain too.
This is nothing like the Stellantis Leapmotor JV. Leapmotor was a private company suffering from financial difficulties and needed cash infusion, while SAIC is a State Owned Enterprise which wasn't facing financial difficulties. Also Stellantis acquired 20% of Leapmotor, which means Stellantis has an interest to see Leapmotor succeed, while the SAIC and JSW (forced deal) is just India trying to steal Chinese EV IP and supply chains.
Shanghai compradors is literally using Chinese taxpayers to subsidize Indian EV supply chains.
Inb4 someone cries that China forced JV ownership too, so what's the big deal. China only set a maximum 50% foreign share ownership on auto JV from 1994, which was raised to 70% in 2018 and 100% in 2022. I don't think China ever forced foreigner auto manufacturers to give up control of their JV, especially not after the JV was already formed. Hence the Chinese anger towards this Indian pig butchering scam.
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NEVs serving in various commercial trucking and mining industries. BEV, PHEV and FCEV from XCMG, Sany and Yutong
It's official, Yuan Up is getting launched in 3 days
It's official, Yuan Up is getting launched in 3 days
Show some proof that SAIC is in a better financial position than Leapmotor
SAIC & JSW is not a forced deal. SAIC decided it wants to stay in Indian market and accepted those terms. It could've tried to keep selling vehicles into India and paying huge tariffs.
Are you actually concerned about Indian steel maker stealing SAIC IP? Is this a joke? Can you tell me what kind of innovation SAIC has come up with that's so precious? And can you tell me how a steel maker with no background in EVs would make use of the tech that it will get in the JV?
India does not have to be more reasonable than China. India is the most protectionist country in the world. If you want to access its market, you need to deal with its oligarchs and tycoons. A lot of people in the west are/were angry that China forced them to share tech & do 50/50 deal. So you and other Chinese online folks being angry at Indian mean nothing.
If you cannot actually explain to me what IP JSW will steal from SAIC, then you are just being emotional.
Just a small note, the real world experience has shown that serial hybrids have horrible highway fuel efficiency. The battery drains quickly on the highway since the motor is running 100% most of the time, then switching to gas, the efficiency of electricity generation (then to work) vs. mechanical work directly is worse. If the driving habits favour long distance trips (large countries with developed highways like USA) then parallel hybrids will be more efficient. This is why GM ended up with a parallel system in their development of the Volt after initially announcing it as a series hybrid.
I don’t think you really need proof that SAIC is in a better financial state than Leapmotor. SAIC is a government backed company that is selling a ton of cheap ICE cars and has big markets hare in the biggest car market. Leapmotor is/was a small private startup simultaneously facing expansion and funding issues.
I agree with you, there is too much India phobia here. The reality is that MG sales are growing in India. They will probably continue to grow because MG brand sales having been doing well overall internationally. At some point, due to the protectionist nature of India, they will need to contend with this.
What does 51% mean? This is financial control, not necessarily operational management. The company is probably not doing much R&D in India, so most of the knowledge will be in assembly and operations rather than hard technology.
Technology transfer is also no guarantee of anything. This is probably no better demonstrated by the India Su-30MKI. The deal India received was by all means better on paper than China’s. The expectation for India was to fully manufacture the plane including engines totally in India by 2010 when the deal was signed in 1996. They have still not reached this goal today. Also, while they can manufacture the Al-31, they have made 0 progress on Kaveri over these 2 decades. Obviously China’s ability to build and design Flankers is not in question whatsoever.
This is not meant to underestimate India’s capabilities, but just the underlying difference between manufacturing and development.
I also think it is a disservice to capability of Chinese industries to think that their business is so fragile. Reminds me of when SAIC purchases SsangYong motors in Korea. All the workers and Korean media accused SAIC of stealing technology, mismanagement, and other malfeasance when it went bankrupt (again, since SAIC purchased it when it went bankrupt before). Of course SAIC is doing well, while SsangYong went bankrupt twice more (once after being purchased by Mahindra, so the company is not even good enough for Indian companies). I’m sure there is a poster on some-KDF writing about how SAIC’s success is directly a result of what they “stole” from SsangYong.
I don't think I am underestimating Indians here when considering that I can't think of any example of them actually successfully copying anything useful. More importantly, auto industry is moving so fast that you can sell lower end tech abroad and it will still be better than anything they have there.
As for SAIC, I think you are overestimating their financial situation. We've seen VW and GM sales collapse in China due to BYD pressure. As time goes on, this will just cause the collapse of SAIC finances. Wuling is struggling against the price pressure.
I don't get why you would think these legacy automakers that rely on foreign JV is actually performing well? They are collapsing and it just keeps getting worse for them. They have a bunch of factories that have very low utilization.
I actually said I am not underestimating India. My point was similar to yours, copying, no matter who is doing it, will only get you so far.
With modern finance, access to cash is as good as actual cash. When finance vultures were circling around HK to further exploit the 90’s Asian Financial Crisis, China said “The HK monetary board has the full backing of the Central Bank of China”, and poof they were done.
SAIC having government backing means they are pretty much backstopped unless the government pulls the plug. If they need to dispose of underperforming assets, the government will help facilitate this in the most advantageous way possible (like the US did for GM). Plus SAIC has a fully fleshed out distribution network worldwide (a tech agnostic asset), something any startup struggles to build. Also, SAIC is already one of the largest EV makers worldwide by volume, so it is not like it is totally out to lunch.
Taking Tesla as another example. Tesla expanded at the right time, rates were 0%, and the printing presses ran freely. All they had to do was hit sales and production targets and the money would keep coming.
Right now the financing situation is not easy. Interest rates are high and access to foreign capital is lower because of geopolitical tensions. Look at HiPhi, they ran out of cash and now they are begging Changan.
SAIC isn't going to receive backing forever. It is right now totally not competitive inside China. It has a whole bunch of factories around that are operating at very utilization. It's sales are collapsing in China. The legacies are dying in China. You cannot stay in good financial position if you have the cost structure of a 4 million per year organization and your sales drop to 1 million per year. And these old legacy automakers aren't worth rescuing. Just let the more healthy organization come in and take over their assets. Or they become another "dai gong" factory for Huawei.
Either way, SAIC is in a lot of trouble