That’s actually not the point. People say saic is doing well. It clearly isn’t. It needs to do what it can to be profitable. Just because some people think it’s treated unfairly in another country, doesn’t mean it’s up to the govt to make decisions for it.
How are they selling out their supply chain to India? Give me an example. What are they building in India that is so sensitive? What does saic produce that is so sensitive?
How do you frame SAIC's value?
If SAIC's value is in only measured in its direct ability to generate revenue. then yes they are in big trouble. Their big source of revenue of JV cars is rapidly declining,
However, SAIC has a bunch of assets with value regardless of the management team or organizational structure.
You could easily split the ICE and EV divisions and just the leave the ICE division to wither to whatever it's future natural size will be. The future of ICE is likely road mapped by Geely, greater consolidation between manufacturers.
For the EV division, you could as you suggested, let another company takeover the assets. You might say, "then this isn't SAIC anymore", sure, but who cares about that?
There is absolutely value in the following:
MG and other brands
A portion of the manufacturing facilities
Overseas sales/service/distribution network
Overseas advertising experience
Overseas customer base
How is SAIC private business? It is literally a SOE mostly owned by the Shanghai government. There is a reason why memes about Shanghai exist.
If SAIC is uncompetitive in Chinese automarket, it should be allowed to fail or sold to another Chinese automaker. Selling out your supply chain to hostile countries just so you can get money to survive in a tough domestic market is just another example of being a comprador.
I think the question that needs to be asked is "What do you think is happening?"
To me, it seems like a lot the fear surrounding investment in India is around technology transfer and replication. Perhaps this is due to China's own success at absorbing manufacturing knowledge and jumping to the next step into a more knowledge-based economy. Although it seems fast, it has taken many decades to get to this point from the 80's (AMC opening Beijing Jeep JV) to now. If India can catch up to China in 40 years, then that is the fault of Chinese industry for standing still.
What is "selling out your supply chain"? It's not really a statement that reflects reality.
Simply assembling vehicles in India doesn't automatically create a whole supply chain. Since India has no EV supply chain, it is likely any initial manufacturing will be from CKD or semi-KD kits.
To establish a domestic supply chain, it would take many years, and a lot of money. Even to get the 80's Cherokee to get to 40% Chinese domestic parts took something like 10+ years.
On top of this, the government of India would have to give favourable financing terms (since it will depend a lot on FX, in China, Zhu Rongji was notable for facilitating this) and invest in human skills development. Are they up to the task? Look at Mexico, JVs will not do anything on their own.
I never said SAIC is doing well in China. What I am claiming is it is not doing well in India and should quit. You must prove Indian investment is doing well relative to alternatives to refute me.
Based on your data I could say "if SAIC is doing poorly in China, it should not pursue a more dangerous market like India where it would lose more money."
I am keeping my mind open. It is entirely possible that Indian market is super lucrative that even after all the protectionist measures, asset seizing, it is still ultra profitable. To the point the profit outdo the financial risk and national security risk of subsdizing hostile nation's industry. A private business worry just former. A state corporation must consider both. I am not seeing the lucrative profit so far. But I may be wrong. I think an expert like you can easily show that?
MG sales are going YoY. They are now top 10 in India, but still behind most marques. As I mention, do you think SAIC is subsidizing technical schools? Do you think SAIC is building railroads, highways, and power plants? They aren't really "subsidizing a hostile nation".
