New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

supersnoop said:

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MG sales are going YoY. They are now top 10 in India, but still behind most marques. As I mention, do you think SAIC is subsidizing technical schools? Do you think SAIC is building railroads, highways, and power plants? They aren't really "subsidizing a hostile nation".

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I am glad MG seems to be doing well. I can't see the profits but I will assume it is good due to volume. SAIC unfortunately is not even on chart. No conclusion can be drawn.

SAIC by investing in India is bringing capital, experience, and facilitating technical work force of India. In the past, this has also encouraged infrastructure expansion in India until they banned it of course. This facilitating effect to hostile nation while not a dealbreaker on its own, should definitely be part of cost analysis. SAIC is a state corporation, national interest matters.

supersnoop said:

I think the question that needs to be asked is "What do you think is happening?"

To me, it seems like a lot the fear surrounding investment in India is around technology transfer and replication. Perhaps this is due to China's own success at absorbing manufacturing knowledge and jumping to the next step into a more knowledge-based economy. Although it seems fast, it has taken many decades to get to this point from the 80's (AMC opening Beijing Jeep JV) to now. If India can catch up to China in 40 years, then that is the fault of Chinese industry for standing still.

What is "selling out your supply chain"? It's not really a statement that reflects reality.
Simply assembling vehicles in India doesn't automatically create a whole supply chain. Since India has no EV supply chain, it is likely any initial manufacturing will be from CKD or semi-KD kits.
To establish a domestic supply chain, it would take many years, and a lot of money. Even to get the 80's Cherokee to get to 40% Chinese domestic parts took something like 10+ years.
On top of this, the government of India would have to give favourable financing terms (since it will depend a lot on FX, in China, Zhu Rongji was notable for facilitating this) and invest in human skills development. Are they up to the task? Look at Mexico, JVs will not do anything on their own.

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Let me ask you this question, does your argument hold if you replace China with (Japan/Germany) and India with China and set the time back 40 years? Were the Japanese and German industry really standing still in the past 40 years? Or are the Chinese industries really out of this world? Can the Chinese miracle really not be replicated in modern times?

China should not base their industrial strategy (especially towards hostile nations) on hubris. I'm not suggesting China should kick down other's ladders, but China should definitely not be helping hostile nations build ladders.

TK3600 said:

Alright, then why don't they just quit Chinese market too if they are doing so poorly? There are many reasons. Perhaps they are doing poorly and want to turn it around cuz sunk-cost fallacy. We have seen similar things happen in India.

Normally I would agree with you but this is a state corporation, it is exactly the job of government.

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There are many soes and I do not want politicians to be making business decisions. Now in reality, of course they do get input. The fact that govt officials have not blocked this tells me there are rationales behind these moves.

coolgod said:

Let me ask you this question, does your argument hold if you replace China with (Japan/Germany) and India with China and set the time back 40 years? Were the Japanese and German industry really standing still in the past 40 years? Or are the Chinese industries really out of this world? Can the Chinese miracle really not be replicated in modern times?

China should not base their industrial strategy (especially towards hostile nations) on hubris. I'm not suggesting China should kick down other's ladders, but China should definitely not be helping hostile nations build ladders.

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It really cannot be replicated. China only surpassed the west due to shift from mechanical to electrical and ai. An Indian steel maker is not high up in my list of fears of who might copy Chinese tech.

more important, what is their exactly with mg tech that’s so precious that you get this worked up?

The comments you are making basically tells me that you do not appreciate the pace at which Chinese ev industry is moving.

coolgod said:

Let me ask you this question, does your argument hold if you replace China with (Japan/Germany) and India with China and set the time back 40 years? Were the Japanese and German industry really standing still the past 40 years? Or are the Chinese industries really out of this world? Can the Chinese miracle really not be replicated in modern times?

China should not base their industrial strategy (especially towards hostile nations) on hubris. I'm not suggesting China should kick down other's ladders per se, but China should definitely not be helping hostile nations build ladders.

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I gave you the example of Mexico. They have been building cars, TVs, and all kinds of goods to avoid NAFTA/USMCA tariffs and take advantage of lower labour costs, but they are not at the level of development of China.

Almost definitely the Japanese and German industry has been slow to adapt. Japan once had a totally captive phone market dominated by NTT's semi-proprietary FOMA system. Apple swept it away almost overnight. The same story with CDs/MiniDiscs vs. MP3s, Blu-Ray vs. Streaming, etc. All formerly dominated by Japanese electronics.

German software is total a$$. This is why their lunch is being eaten in China. It is all their own fault. The Q4 is a competent EV with regards to build quality and dynamics. However it is hamstrung by it's high price and crappy software (doesn't even have remote unlocking, why? no 360-degree camera, again, why?). If it had just a few more premium touches, then it should be able to better hang onto their existing customers, but it doesn't.

It is not based on hubris, it is based on strategic vision. As long as China keeps executing, then they will be able to stay ahead.

TK3600 said:

I am glad MG seems to be doing well. I can't see the profits but I will assume it is good due to volume. SAIC unfortunately is not even on chart. No conclusion can be drawn.

SAIC by investing in India is bringing capital, experience, and facilitating technical work force of India. In the past, this has also encouraged infrastructure expansion in India until they banned it of course. This facilitating effect to hostile nation while not a dealbreaker on its own, should definitely be part of cost analysis. SAIC is a state corporation, national interest matters.

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MG is owned by SAIC, you need to educate yourself on the industry more if you don't even know this.

edit:
India is a huge country, it will facilitate growth on that alone. To take the next step will be on the country's leadership, not any JV manufacturing.

One reason why China is such a manufacturing power is because of the education level of the workers. You can be lazy in a JV and just teach a machinist how to build the parts for those cars they make, they won't know how to make anything else. The other way is to establish a vocational school and teach all the fundamentals of CNC operation. The latter is what China has done at its own expense.

coolgod said:

That's like saying China should help hostile nations build ladders since China's ladder will always be one step higher. Have you asked the Chinese workers who have toiled away their entire life in Chinese Auto Industry if they are ok with this?

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brother, i have read all of your massages. your concern is absolutely spot on regarding technology .. but

let me tell you one thing.. local governments under the obligation of central committee from Beijing have strict policy. not to share any critical technology with anyone. so you just relax on this point..

SAIC brings capital and Management in this partnership just to capture some of Indian market. most of the kits and components will from Chinese suppliers and assembled in the car in indian Plant..

Yesterday's article in india media.


in 2022-23, india imported 20.3 Billion dollars auto components. in which 30 percent comes from Chinese suppliers. rest from Japan , Korea and western countries..

indian companies made historic JV in 1980's with Japanese companies.. what happened since then ? nothing. india companies even fell further behind instead of learning and copying Japanese tech. we have so many examples in past..

india's biggest problem is, lack of infrastructure , R&D culture and lack of skilled workers.

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for example..

Starting in 2015, Xiaomi established seven factories in India, closely aligning with the Indian government's "Made in India" policy, providing 20,000 job opportunities locally..

Vivo has largest Plant in UP province of india. in which 60 Million units of mobile phones can be produced annually.

Oppo operates one of India's largest mobile manufacturing units, situated in Uttar Pradesh. This is where OPPO's sister brands, OnePlus and Realme, also have production facilities

now you see, its been a decade almost, all Chinese mobile phone brands have production plants in india .. what did happened since then ? nothing. they still import everything from China include machine tools. and assembled in factories with label ''Made in India'' ..

if China itself give up on supply chain, otherwise nothing can happen..

Party has strict orders.. i just cannot describe in words.. so you can relax on this part..

As China’s EV industry enters an era of price war and consolidation, some consumers are witnessing their EV makers collapsing, leaving software in limbo. Others are seeing their newly-bought cars getting much cheaper in a few months.

Has anyone here been to Auto China (the Beijing motor show)? Apart from new car models, are there usually any dedicated displays of technical innovations at shows like these?

escobar said:

As China’s EV industry enters an era of price war and consolidation, some consumers are witnessing their EV makers collapsing, leaving software in limbo. Others are seeing their newly-bought cars getting much cheaper in a few months.

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It is comical to me that people are protesting against price cuts lol