New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

horse said:

Here are the basic facts.

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5. It is the law that by 2035 most of Europe, some states in America, and in Canada, the ICE car will be outlawed from sale. Where are these EV cars will materialize from? Who knows.

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Europe is backtracking that pledge on EV. US is very likely going to backtrack any pledge on EV, particularly if Trump gets re-elected. Chinese EV market exploded since the opening of Tesla Shanghai. Before that, few people in the west saw it coming, including Musk himself. Therefore, this perceived Chinese EV threat really just began to manifest no earlier than 2020. That in itself demonstrate once again what the so-called "China Speed" really means. And the west was caught off-guard and un-prepared. The current noises on Chinese EV in the west MSM are just some symptoms during the 5 stages of grief.

The likely cause in the US, particularly if Trump gets re-elected, is that US will prolong the ICE life as much as it can while finding ways to hinder Chinese auto exports. This will give American auto makers some more borrowed time to look for life support. It is very unlikely that US can find a competing EV eco-system outside China that can underpin its own EV wishful thinking. The immediate results will be more expensive and less advanced EVs made in US, which nobody outside NA market wants.

The likely cause in the Europe is less aggressive green policies, particularly for EV transition. EU is going to wage some political battles against Chinese EV imports. But the process is going to be bargaining but not banning like in the US. In this EV case, BBA becomes EU hostage in China hands by its own making. It is poetic justice. It is "be careful for what you wish".

So the major export markets for Chinese EVs are going to be EU, ASEAN, Middle East, Russia, Australia, South America ...... The Chinese auto makers actually don't need US market for their own selfish interests.

4Runner said:

Europe is backtracking that pledge on EV. US is very likely going to backtrack any pledge on EV, particularly if Trump gets re-elected. Chinese EV market exploded since the opening of Tesla Shanghai. Before that, few people in the west saw it coming, including Musk himself. Therefore, this perceived Chinese EV threat really just began to manifest no earlier than 2020. That in itself demonstrate once again what the so-called "China Speed" really means. And the west was caught off-guard and un-prepared. The current noises on Chinese EV in the west MSM are just some symptoms during the 5 stages of grief.

The likely cause in the US, particularly if Trump gets re-elected, is that US will prolong the ICE life as much as it can while finding ways to hinder Chinese auto exports. This will give American auto makers some more borrowed time to look for life support. It is very unlikely that US can find a competing EV eco-system outside China that can underpin its own EV wishful thinking. The immediate results will be more expensive and less advanced EVs made in US, which nobody outside NA market wants.

The likely cause in the Europe is less aggressive green policies, particularly for EV transition. EU is going to wage some political battles against Chinese EV imports. But the process is going to be bargaining but not banning like in the US. In this EV case, BBA becomes EU hostage in China hands by its own making. It is poetic justice. It is "be careful for what you wish".

So the major export markets for Chinese EVs are going to be EU, ASEAN, Middle East, Russia, Australia, South America ...... The Chinese auto makers actually don't need US market for their own selfish interests.

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India is still an important market for Chinese EV, otherwise the Koreans will dominate and sell their LG and Samsung EV batteries there.

song pro 2024 version is out and again 20k cuts across the board. Just monstrous. BYD is looking to bury everyone


Tesla discounts are much weaker


BYD is sucking up all the energy in China

tphuang said:

Wait, did huawei have one of its factories confiscated? If not, then why would byd factory be confiscated or shutdown?

America can say whatever it wants but the fact is there are more American and European investment in China than vice versa. The difference is pretty large. So if America or Europe just decides to block, tariff or confiscate Chinese automakers, Chinese govt can always retaliate. It will be the greatest day for byd if western automakers and supply chain cannot operate in China. Do you understand?

the level of paranoia on this forum is unbelievable. America somehow cannot be stopped and is all powerful and China is the weakest little nation ever created.

btw, I have not seen you post much on this thread on substantive auto related stuff. If your goal is to just weigh in on geopolitics, please feel free to stay away from this thread.

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I don't feel the need to stay away from this thread on the matter of differences of opinions, thank you very much.

They didn't confiscate Huawei, but they just used different tools to squeeze it out of the market wherever they could with their influence despite the fact Huawei is the leader in its industry. It all started in the same way, citing 'national security'. The mechanics and details would be different, of course, as the industries are different. China can retaliate but that didn't stop them from making dumb decisions before or twisting around their 'legal systems', which Huawei too had approached in many countries, to no avail.

Secondly, stop putting words into my post and amplifying them, I never said America cannot be stopped and China is a weak little country I'm here for good discourse, and this is a forum of discussion, it's okay to not agree 100% on everything.

In the end, their consumers will lose and their players will remain inefficient, but they will still pursue the course.

MG is quietly and steadily reclaiming its British territories. Back in the year 2000, I tested the Boxster S and really liked it. USD 60K out the door. 275 horse power. 0-62mph 5 seconds. In comparison, this open top MG roadster is 60K pound EV: 277 miles WLTP range; 510 horse power; 0-62mph in 3.2 seconds.


BTW, MG is 100% owned by SAIC, which is a public company with Shanghai city government as the controlling shareholder.


MG IM (intelligent mobility) is a premium sub-brand from SAIC MG.

tphuang said:

Wait, did huawei have one of its factories confiscated? If not, then why would byd factory be confiscated or shutdown?

America can say whatever it wants but the fact is there are more American and European investment in China than vice versa. The difference is pretty large. So if America or Europe just decides to block, tariff or confiscate Chinese automakers, Chinese govt can always retaliate. It will be the greatest day for byd if western automakers and supply chain cannot operate in China. Do you understand?

the level of paranoia on this forum is unbelievable. America somehow cannot be stopped and is all powerful and China is the weakest little nation ever created.

btw, I have not seen you post much on this thread on substantive auto related stuff. If your goal is to just weigh in on geopolitics, please feel free to stay away from this thread.

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I think the discussion around Chinese car/EV companies and their efforts abroad cannot be separated from geopolitics.
There is a balance between companies like BYD choosing to expand their overseas presence in the west, and the risk of having investments be compromised through hostile political forces.

And yes, hostile actions towards Chinese car companies can always be responded to with reciprocal Chinese government retaliation to western car companies, but the question is not about whether the Chinese government is powerless or not, but rather the question is whether Chinese car companies are being sufficiently careful so as to minimize the opportunity/cost of pursuing investments in potentially hostile western nations that end up being a poor use of present resources that are better directed elsewhere, in the event of geopolitical blowback.


If BYD does pursue a investment in Italy to manufacture cars, I think it is not an exaggeration to acknowledge the geopolitical hostility that Italy has demonstrated and Italy's vulnerability to geopolitical influence from the US, and that legal protections only exist in so much that a host government (or influencing government) perceives it to be in their interest.
The question then becomes one of whether it was worth BYD's time to pursue an investment into Italy (or XYZ other country) to begin with, and how well their geopolitical risk assessment jives with their loss prevention.


At minimum, I think if we are talking about the idea of BYD setting up shop in Italy, the first and prominent question that BYD should be asking, is "what's the geopolitical risk". Neither they, nor we as observers have the benefit of entertaining Chinese car companies expanding/investing in western nations as if it is just business as usual, instead, having a constant vigilance and paranoia about whether they may be a victim of political hostility is an unfortunate necessity.

generalmeng said:

what is the general opinion and consensus on vinfast? they seem to be expanding very aggressively.

I know very little about EV

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vinfast is a terrible car.

henrik said:

India is still an important market for Chinese EV, otherwise the Koreans will dominate and sell their LG and Samsung EV batteries there.

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At what price? The middle class size of India is not in the 100 million, more like 50 million or less. Out of that 50, only 10 million are maybe upper middle class - the class that actually buys the expensive toys, and able to afford things like Electric Vehicles.

Do you have any figure as to what's the actual size of India's auto market and at what prices they're selling at?

Bellum_Romanum said:

At what price? The middle class size of India is not in the 100 million, more like 50 million or less. Out of that 50, only 10 million are maybe upper middle class - the class that actually buys the expensive toys, and able to afford things like Electric Vehicles.

Do you have any figure as to what's the actual size of India's auto market and at what prices they're selling at?

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the middle class of India is able to buy electric cars.

Chinese ones, not Teslas.

If they want to buy non-Chinese renewable energy vehicles, there's always their feet.

Bellum_Romanum said:

At what price? The middle class size of India is not in the 100 million, more like 50 million or less. Out of that 50, only 10 million are maybe upper middle class - the class that actually buys the expensive toys, and able to afford things like Electric Vehicles.

Do you have any figure as to what's the actual size of India's auto market and at what prices they're selling at?

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Maybe small portion of the 1% that can afford to fly?