I want to emphasize on the bolded part -- because I think that is actually exactly what other people here are saying.
I.e.: that there is a risk, that all Chinese investment in XYZ western nations in sensitive industries, face the danger of being setup to fail or be seized in time.
I agree that it is a bit of an extreme argument, but the best way for this thread to approach that argument IMO is just to acknowledge it as a possibility and a risk (albeit an unlikely one in the short term future).
Calling it paranoid or overly emotional imo is not helpful from the perspective of enabling the thread to continue.
The underlying skepticism towards legal protections in western nations and the overall belief that western nations will seek to actively undermine or seize Chinese "higher tech" industries, is one that is not unfounded, and at minimum should be acknowledged.
I don't think we are going to agree here
No it's not. VW plants in China are joint-ventures, BYD will not get them nor it wants to anyways since majority of those plants are tooled for ICE cars
Let's say BYD doesn't get those plants. Now, the Germans/Americans are out of the China market. BYD loses 1 plant and maybe a few hundred stores in Europe. Let's say it sell those at 20% discount.
On the other side. Thousands of VW/BBA/Tesla stores in China are suddenly out of work, same with their sales staff. BYD will have its picking of store locations & sales staff that it can snap up really cheaply. Since those foreign JV partners are suddenly left with factories and no work, now there is a healthy selection of available workers with industry experience you can snap up. The land/facility of those old factories are available for really cheap. BYD can quickly snap them up and put the latest tools in them and voila.
If you have seen how quickly BYD has been able to build new factories and tool them, you would think this is not a problem at all.
And now, it gets 30-40% of a huge domestic market, because it's the only one that can scale up really quickly in China.
I don't see how this is not a win
Of course, if Chinese govt is too afraid to retaliate, then we got a problem. But you would think they have to in this scenario.
What laws let US/European countries banned/ripped out Huawei/ZTE gears? What laws did Canadian government use to force fire sales by Chinese investors? All they have to do is to yell "NATIONAL SECURITY!" and Chinese companies' investments are gone. Rule of law is a freaking joke in the West right now.
Right, so let's say BYD build a plant in a control "controlled" by America and they are told BYD cars can no longer be sold here. What is their investment in that case? Do they need to pay back owners that bought BYD cars? If not, then why does it matter EU countries banned or ripped out HW gears?
Did Huawei get their factory confiscated? for some reason after all these things, Huawei is still going ahead with its factory in France
Look, you kept saying BYD and others can look after their own interests. Unfortunately Chinese companies have a history of NOT having proper risk management practices. Just look at how much Chinese companies invested in Indian knowing full well how Indian government had mistreated foreign firms (Vodafone, Amazon, Walmart, etc).
of course, India always comes back to this discussion. I have no issue with Chinese companies being involved in India. It's their money. If they thought it was prudent to go into India and lost money in the process. They should be allowed to do so.
Here is the part that always gets to me. People get upset when the topic of BYD investing in certain country comes up. But do not get similarly upset when it enters the country.
Here is a question. How many stores have they opened up in these markets. How much money does it cost to run these stores every year and operate the local dealer network?
How much annual expense & depreciation do you get from a new plant?
Do you think BYD sinks more money per year in a 150k/year car factory vs having an 1000 store dealership network? Why does the former get people upset, but the latter does not?
For me, i think it would be bad if BYD has to sell a factory at 80% discount in 3 years. But I think it would be even worse if it builds a huge network of dealers and experience center (many in really prime locations) over 3 years and then isn't able to sell any EVs, because tariffs raised cost too much. There is a lot of cost involved when you enter a new market.
