New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

AndrewS said:

As I've said before, EROEI is not a relevant measure when comparing how useful the energy is.

A car with an internal combustion engine only converts petrol into movement with a maximum efficiency of 40%.

An electric car converts electricity into movement at over 80% efficiency

So when used in a car, electricity is TWICE as useful as petrol.
Yet EROEI doesn't capture this. EROEI is fundamentally flawed.

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4-7 year photovoltaic EROEI breakeven is from 2012-2013 data and is completely obsolete.

It is completely contradicted by the actual electricity produced by major solar projects in recent years.

If I look at the projects built after 2019 on wikipedia below and which have electricity production data, there are for projects in China, USA, Vietnam, Egypt. They end up with the following rough energy payback periods. These are nowhere near 4-7 years you claim.

14 Months
9 Months
11 Months
8 Months
12 Months
15 Months

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_stations

Anyway, I've said all I have to say on this EROEI nonsense

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Your source doesn't have a months to payback entry. Where's that table from?

The neutral audience and reality will be the judge of who is right or wrong. And the reality is that energy is skyrocketing in price even as more solar plants go online.

The neutral audience on the other hand sees who is citing every single claim and making sure that the numbers matches up. Btw a % level difference in efficiency doesn't make up for order of magnitude difference in EROEI. It's simple math.

dengyeye said:

Established ICE companies will not be able to compete long term. Mercedes/BMW are offering (imo) inferior products at 250-350k range. After driving a BYD I do not want to go back to a traditional ICE layout... the touch screen is just so easy to use. These companies are going to get destroyed in the long run.

Even Tesla's model y (250k) and 3 (>200k) cannot really hang with Atto 3 (170k).

If you are wondering why the prices are so high, it's because the singapore government taxes vehicles at a ridiculous rate.

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There is no draw for Singapore owners to change to EV as current policy offers more disincentives than incentive.

I probably can get more out of my car at lesser cost if i drive across to Malaysia to pump.

So this is actually a translation of the point posted on Chinese social media about points that wang chuanfu made on August 30th. He did miss the part where they stated over 1000 seals have been delivered.

I think the part about 5th generation dmi is interesting. Sounds like they think it can be made even more efficient.

Also praised the high end brand a lot. Stating that it will have special technology that's worthy of the price.

Does sound like they intend to move to fully electric, but the market is not there yet.

Still getting more orders per month than they can produce. Although, if they can actually reach 280k a month, even 800k pre orders is only ,3 months of production. Seems like they need to trot out byd sea gull to also claim the low end of the market.

tch1972 said:

There is no draw for Singapore owners to change to EV as current policy offers more disincentives than incentive.

I probably can get more out of my car at lesser cost if i drive across to Malaysia to pump.

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IMO if you are brave enough to get through that queue to Johor, you deserve free petrol on the other end.

Anybody knows where the figures for BYD selling 136k cars in august came from?

Seems really low and chinese social media is estimating around 190k instead

sndef888 said:

Anybody knows where the figures for BYD selling 136k cars in august came from?

Seems really low and chinese social media is estimating around 190k instead

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that is how many BYD cars have been registered (or got license plate) in the Chinese market from Aug 1 to 28th. The production/sales total for the entire month will be a lot higher than that.

FairAndUnbiased said:

I believe I used EROEI payback for solar, but if I used pure cost then it's my mistake.

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Fine. We all make mistakes.

It's also not my estimate, it's the estimate of multiple teams of MS and PhD holding SMEs of which you are not one. Take it up with them, not me.

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Regardless of their credentials, their 3-month payback time for nuclear is nowhere near realistic. No nuclear reactor has a payback period that's remotely as low as 3 months in terms of cost, the metric that truly matters in the real world. You are still sprinkling fairy dust.

4-7 years photovoltaic EROEI break even. So shorter than pure cost but not by the orders of magnitude needed to compete with nuclear or hydro.

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You are still sprinkling nuclear fairy dust. shows the current (2020) and projected (2050) costs of various energy sources. The graph cites data from the IEA, the International Energy Agency. The numbers represent the Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE), which includes ALL the costs of an energy source over its lifecycle. The following table compares the costs for solar photovoltaic and nuclear.


As you can see, solar PV was already (in 2020) half the cost of nuclear. By 2050, the IEA projects that solar PV will be a quarter the cost of nuclear.

Solar is uncompetitive with nuclear by "orders of magnitude"? You have just pegged my BS meter.

2060 for carbon neutral is doable without magical thinking for what solar can do.

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You said, "In general in the US the amount of overselling, overhype and over promise is insane." So solar is actually NOT being oversold, overhyped, and overpromised after all -- at least in China.

Nutrient said:

Fine. We all make mistakes.



Regardless of their credentials, their 3-month payback time for nuclear is nowhere near realistic. No nuclear reactor has a payback period that's remotely as low as 3 months in terms of cost, the metric that truly matters in the real world. You are still sprinkling fairy dust.



You are still sprinkling nuclear fairy dust.

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shows the current (2020) and projected (2050) costs of various energy sources. The graph cites data from the IEA, the International Energy Agency. The numbers represent the Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE), which includes ALL the costs of an energy source over its lifecycle. The following table compares the costs for solar photovoltaic and nuclear.

Energy Source	2020	2050
Solar PV	45	19
Nuclear	99	92

As you can see, solar PV was already (in 2020) half the cost of nuclear. By 2050, the IEA projects that solar PV will be a quarter the cost of nuclear.

Solar is uncompetitive with nuclear by "orders of magnitude"? You have just pegged my BS meter.



You said, "In general in the US the amount of overselling, overhype and over promise is insane." So solar is actually NOT being oversold, overhyped, and overpromised after all -- at least in China.

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a simple observation: if solar was so much cheaper than even conventional fossil, how come Germany is now using coal plants to substitute for gas instead of building out more solar that is supposedly cheaper per IEA estimates?




So clearly IEA cost estimates aren't lining up with real world behavior.

FairAndUnbiased said:

a simple observation: if solar was so much cheaper than even conventional fossil, how come Germany is now using coal plants to substitute for gas instead of building out more solar that is supposedly cheaper per IEA estimates?

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Why is Germany now using coal? Perhaps because the country's need for energy is urgent, and the dirty old coal plants can be resuscitated faster than solar farms can be built? You must be really desperate if you can miss such an obvious explanation.

Nutrient said:

Why is Germany now using coal? Perhaps because the country's need for energy is urgent, and the dirty old coal plants can be resuscitated faster than solar farms can be built? You must be really desperate if you can miss such an obvious explanation.

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that's precisely the point. a single coal plant can produce more energy more rapidly more densely.

utility scale solar farms can be built in 3 months per 2 MW.


a single coal fired power plant can produce 1.4 GW


Germany installed 5.3 GW in all of 2021