New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

Nutrient said:

That was NOT my point. How about actually understanding what I wrote? I said, "Perhaps because the country's need for energy is urgent, and the dirty old coal plants can be resuscitated faster than solar farms can be built?" (emphasis added).

Germany probably doesn't have to build new coal burners; they probably have many old, retired coal-based power plants that they can quickly fire up, far more quickly than they can build new solar farms. This has nothing to do with the speed of building new coal plants versus building new solar farms.

Even if it did, why are you pushing dirty coal? Why are you so hostile to a clean and low-carbon energy source like solar? Because China can use solar to escape the fossil energy trap and rise to great wealth?

Click to expand...

The other thing is that there isn't enough electricity supply even within China.

And all things being equal, Chinese solar companies can afford to pay more for panels than German companies because of sky-high shipping costs.

The estimate is that China will double solar polysilicon output in the next year.

Anyway, I think this discussion should be moved to the renewables thread.

KYli said:

South Korea initially thought it would be exempt but it didn't get the exemption as promise. China wouldn't be the only one affected by the US new policy.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

What's up with S.Koreans and their love for using dramatic words, "betrayal" lol

How is it possible for the master to "betray" the servant? It just doesnt compute. I would advice these Koreans to open a dictionary in order to learn the obligations of the Lord to the serfs (i.e. none)

BYD finally reported 174,915 in August. A much smaller jump this month vs July.
export is up to 5092 from 4026 last month. Since the Australia deliveries just started, I anticipate this to go significantly higher rest of the year. Then, we will also get European and UK deliveries.

installed battery capacity up to 7.553 GWh. Again, jump not as high as expected. I anticipate this to go up a lot more in Q4 as they ramp up to 280k a month!

This is a longer article about what I already mentioned twice regarding Wang Chunfu's call on Aug 30
August production was down due to power disruption and COVID issues. They are aiming for 280k a month by end of the year and 4 million deliveries next year. Imo, BYD is not entering US market due to geopolitical issues, but the subsidy bill is a good excuse.

Also interesting that the battery production in 2023 is still mostly for BYD's own production vs supplying other automakers

Even assuming a pretty conservative 200k average for the remaining 4 months, BYD is looking at 1.8 million cars sold this year.

I think that should beat Tesla by an estimated ~400k margin

It's a pretty incredible number considering they had been stuck at 400k from 2009-2020

In 2 years they went from stuck at 400k to beating their world-renowned top competitor by 400k cars.

henrik said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

China maybe safe for the moment, but some companies already start to use domestic chips.

China FAW said to use self-driving chips from local maker Cambricon​

Cambricon's first self-driving chip has been taped out and is expected to be in mass production later this year, according to local media.

Click to expand...

BYD's chairman Wang Chuangfu is optimistic for the future: BYD will target 280K monthly deliveries by year end. China's NEV sales may reach 9-10 million (40% penetration rate) next year.

Xiaomi is jumping into the NEV fray.

Xiaomi's first model will be LiDAR-equipped sedan, report says​

Xiaomi founder Lei Jun is convinced that the endgame of competition in the EV industry is autonomous driving, and that LiDARs are the key sensors to achieve high-level autonomous driving.

Click to expand...

After BYD, GAC will be the next NEV maker that will produce batteries developed in-house for itself. Nio may do so in the future also.

GAC to build EV batteries developed under proprietary tech​

The major state-owned automaker is set to produce batteries developed on its own. ​

Click to expand...

henrik said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Lol, if NIO and XPeng did not get their head smacked straight by this, then they are hopeless. This chip ban wasn't about the military. It is about DC's fear of falling behind China in the very important future industry of AI. I'm sure using this opportunity to put Chinese cloud service providers at a disadvantage were also part of the decision. The auto chips are only safe for now because American political class hasn't caught onto how far ahead China's auto industry is right now. If they realize that Chinese cars with smart driving is going to take over the world, they will be putting a kaboosh on the Nvidia/Qualcomm chip sales.

At worst, this A100/H100 sanction only affects NIO/XPeng's data center build out. If they don't figure out a non-Nvidia solution, then they have only themselves to blame.

This is why SAIC is building models with Journey 5 chips.
why BYD will equip some of its 2023 models with Journey 5 chips. It actually will also be using Nvidia Orin chip in some of its cars next year. But realistically, it will want to move everything to its own smart driving chips.
why FAW will be using self driving chips from cambricon

Check this out on Horizon Robotics. Look at the major investors and how many chips they have

The Chinese AI chipmaker was founded in 2015 with investors including Intel Capital, Hillhouse Capital and Jack Ma's Yunfeng Capital, and partners including Li Auto, BYD, SAIC Motor and Audi.

Click to expand...

On July 29, 2021, Horizon Robotics launched the Journey 5 chip, with plans to launch the Journey 5P in 2022 and the Journey 6 chip in 2023.

By the end of 2021, Horizon Robotics' cumulative shipments of its Journey family of chips exceeded 1 million, according to the company's press release today.

Horizon Robotics has now contracted with more than 20 car companies to provide AI chips for more than 70 models, according to the company.

Click to expand...

Get European automakers that have large Chinese operation like VW, BMW and Benz to also use Journey 5. Then you are all set.

Cambricon is actually more impressive than I thought. It's looking to achieve over 200 TOPS. That would put it on the same level as Nvidia Orin. Keep in mind that you need probably 1000 TOPS to achieve L4 autonomous driving.

BYD revenue increases 65.7% in 1H22​

BYD's auto business, including battery and PV manufacturing, raked in over CNY100 billion (US$14.48 billion) in revenue in the first half of 2022.

The Chinese car and battery manufacturer released on Aug 29 the latest earnings result for the first half of 2022, during which the company earned CNY150.6 billion in total revenue.

Its total revenue increased significantly by 65.7% from CNY90 billion in the first half of 2021 to CNY150.6 billion in the first half of 2022.

For the same period of time, the company's auto and battery business reported a combined CNY109.3 billion, accounting for 72.6% of total revenue.

BYD revenue growth from 1H19 to 1H22

This just shows how far ahead BYD is vs everyone else. I'd be surprised if more than 2 of NIO/XPeng/Li Auto/Leapmotor survive this brutal war of attrition in the Chinese EV market. Can't see Geely and Chery go under.

Here is the sales breakdown from August
Han at 26,003 is basically flat vs July
Tang at 10,815 is down 1000 vs July
Song at 42,500 is up almost 4000 vs July
Qin at 39,513 is up 5000 vs July and 19k vs April! I think the start of the Hefei plant really added to this total
Yuan at 18,265 is down almost 4000 vs July. This is surprising one. I think this is probably a combination of lockdown/power cut affect Yuan plant and cars exported abroad have not yet been delivered yet.
Dolphin at 23,469, is up over 2000 vs July. Another one that will probably continue to experience exponential growth.
Destroyer 05 at 8725 is up 1200 vs July.
Seal delivered 1726! Not bad for a first month.
E Series 1783

SAIC Motor: Plans to achieve global sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 2.7 million in 2025​

Jiwei.com news (text/Ma Hui) An investor asked SAIC Motor: "Recently, the suspension of fuel vehicles has attracted a lot of attention. As a leading automobile manufacturer, what is your comment on this?"

In response to this issue, SAIC Motor stated on the investor interaction platform on September 2, "The company currently plans to achieve global sales of new energy vehicles of more than 2.7 million units in 2025. The company will pay close attention to policy trends and changes in market demand, and actively respond to and do It is easy to adjust to better meet the needs of users.”

Previously, SAIC Group has stated that in terms of brand awareness and influence enhancement, the first is to integrate global and regional high-quality resources to increase the brand's voice, the second is to seize the brand high ground by promoting electrification, and the third is to use "intelligent network + vehicle technology + "Comprehensive marketing digitalization" to shape the brand image of technology automobiles. SAIC aims to sell 1.5 million vehicles overseas in 2025. It is expected that there will be more than 10 new energy and traditional energy models in the overseas sales of independent brands.