New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

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sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
Been shitting on Nio for some time due to their sales lagging behind Xpeng and Li Auto (not to mention Leapmotor and Neta) and the stereotype of Nio owners being arrogant. But I wonder if this could be a case of turtle vs hare, with Nio becoming the strongest after their Neopark ramps up and ET5 begins deliveries.

Yicai estimated that ET5 has 200k preorders, while Nio president was quoted as saying ET5 will outsell BMW 3 in China by next year (current BMW 3 figures are around 15+k a month)
 
G

getready

Senior Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
yep so rough estimate: Germany installed 5.6 GW in 2021.

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Solar costs $1 per nominal watt at utility scale. Let's call install free though it's not. So $5.6 billion in spending on 5.6 GW nominal solar. This is best case scenario.

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But 5.6 GW nominal isn't 5.6 GW average. It's peak. You need to look at capacity factor C = (actual energy over given period)/(maximum possible energy over given period).

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, so that 5.6 GW nominal install for all of Germany is actually producing 0.56 GW average. Coal has capacity factor ~60% in the US and UK, probably won't be much lower in Germany, so a 1.4 GW coal fired plant is actually producing 0.82 GW average.

You'd need to install 1.5x more solar panels as was installed in all of Germany over an entire year, to equal the average production capacity of a single coal fired power plant, at the cost of $8.4 billion over 1 year.

So this is why Germany cannot immediately transition to 100% solar. It isn't because of inertial, politics, willpower, etc. It's simply that solar's capacity factor is too low and building is too slow compared to just firing up coal. The German photovoltaic market can't expand by 50% within 1 year, it can't even handle installing all that, even if given for free.

Solar is a very long term and gradual replacement, and cannot compare to high capacity factor sources like hydro, nuclear or coal.
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How does wind power conpare with all of them, if I may ask?
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
getready said:
How does wind power conpare with all of them, if I may ask?
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Wind power is really good for EROEI (~20) and capacity factor that's lower than but comparable to hydro (~20-40%). You'd expect this as both wind and hydro directly harness the mechanical power of geophysical phenomena like wind and water using turbines to turn generators. The wind and water are free. The difference in capacity factor is explained by the fact that hydro can store a reservoir but wind can't.

The problem is that like hydro, wind has limited sites it is good at. You can't arbitrarily build a wind plant wherever you want and so you get more transmission cost. An added problem of wind is that it has bigger spikes and dips than hydro, despite similar capacity factor over long periods of time, so you need some electrical storage to compensate for lack of mechanical storage like a reservoir lake for hydro.

I do think that wind is better than solar for utility scale power and is mostly held back by NIMBYs. my opinion, NOT a fact, but I think that wind is much closer to being solved than solar is. A combination of nuclear, hydro, wind and some fossil fuels to act as dispatch power (key term in power engineering, you need to understand the need for baseline and dispatch power to understand why the grid is what it is) is good. Solar isn't bad but wind just has fewer problems.
 
H

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
tphuang said:
BYD finally reported 174,915 in August. A much smaller jump this month vs July.
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export is up to 5092 from 4026 last month. Since the Australia deliveries just started, I anticipate this to go significantly higher rest of the year. Then, we will also get European and UK deliveries.

installed battery capacity up to 7.553 GWh. Again, jump not as high as expected. I anticipate this to go up a lot more in Q4 as they ramp up to 280k a month!

This is a longer article about what I already mentioned twice regarding Wang Chunfu's call on Aug 30
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August production was down due to power disruption and COVID issues. They are aiming for 280k a month by end of the year and 4 million deliveries next year. Imo, BYD is not entering US market due to geopolitical issues, but the subsidy bill is a good excuse.

Also interesting that the battery production in 2023 is still mostly for BYD's own production vs supplying other automakers
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Buffett is selling byd shares at the wrong time. byd share price is now going down, as buffett's profit in byd dwindles, caused by his own selling.
 
H

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
coolgod said:
Buffett is part of the US ruling class, which means the US ruling class will target BYD next. Similar to how Pelosi sold Nvidia stocks before Nvidia ban.
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pelosi lost big in nvda and amd stocks. Now her family is being sanctioned in China and Hong Kong.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
tphuang said:
No, Buffett just wants to make money. He is selling some shares because this is a good time to take profits
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Let's wait and see who is correct.
tphuang said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565692673830289408
This just shows how far ahead BYD is vs everyone else. I'd be surprised if more than 2 of NIO/XPeng/Li Auto/Leapmotor survive this brutal war of attrition in the Chinese EV market. Can't see Geely and Chery go under.
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If there really is trouble, NIO/Xpeng/Li Auto would be backstopped or bought out by their respective local gov auto group, SAIC, GAC, BAIC respectively. EV company consolidation in China is inevitable, not sure about the other EV brands, but those three brands should definitely live on one way or another.
 
tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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coolgod said:
Let's wait and see who is correct.
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coolgod said:
If there really is trouble, NIO/Xpeng/Li Auto would be backstopped or bought out by their respective local gov auto group, SAIC, GAC, BAIC respectively. EV company consolidation in China is inevitable, not sure about the other EV brands, but those three brands should definitely live on one way or another.
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If they are failing, they will either get bought out or they will fail. At which point, byd or chery or geely can sweep in and get the factories on the cheap. Chinese local government should absolutely not step in.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
tphuang said:
If they are failing, they will either get bought out or they will fail. At which point, byd or chery or geely can sweep in and get the factories on the cheap. Chinese local government should absolutely not step in.
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That makes absolutely no sense. Those three companies have huge ties with local gov since they are HQ in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing respectively. The local gov likely has part ownership of these companies and directed local banks loan billions to them. The local gov want to keep the talent, industrial base, and tax base inside their city, so it would be unlikely for byd, cherry or geely to be able to purchase them.
 
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