New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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With the new ban on exporting Nvidia AI accelerators to China. From 1 to 10 how badly is NIO, the marketing company, going to be affected?

cnevpost covered this
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Looks like NIO will suffer some short term transition cost. If I were them, I'd demand refund from Nvidia. Looks like AMD didn't work out and now Nvidia won't work out either.
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It seems to be simple enough to just use Alibaba cloud (which is what Xpeng is doing) which actually use Alibaba's self designed Yitian chips which is based on TSMC 5 nm process
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or they could use Baidu cloud server which uses Baidu's Kunlun 2 chips based on Samsung 7 nm process
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the other one to keep your eye on is the self driving chips. The only reason US gov't haven't blocked smart driving chips from China is it's unaware of how far ahead China's autonomous driving technology is.

I think it's fine to use snapdragon or Orin on your cars in the next couple of years (BYD is using Orin for 2023). You just need to make sure you have domestic alternatives under development also. That's why everyone (especially BYD) has invested in Horizon Robotics. On top of that, BYD is working on their chip.
 

KampfAlwin

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cnevpost covered this
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Looks like NIO will suffer some short term transition cost. If I were them, I'd demand refund from Nvidia. Looks like AMD didn't work out and now Nvidia won't work out either.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It seems to be simple enough to just use Alibaba cloud (which is what Xpeng is doing) which actually use Alibaba's self designed Yitian chips which is based on TSMC 5 nm process
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
or they could use Baidu cloud server which uses Baidu's Kunlun 2 chips based on Samsung 7 nm process
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

the other one to keep your eye on is the self driving chips. The only reason US gov't haven't blocked smart driving chips from China is it's unaware of how far ahead China's autonomous driving technology is.

I think it's fine to use snapdragon or Orin on your cars in the next couple of years (BYD is using Orin for 2023). You just need to make sure you have domestic alternatives under development also. That's why everyone (especially BYD) has invested in Horizon Robotics. On top of that, BYD is working on their chip.
For a country that accuses China for not taking Climate Change seriously, they sure do like to sanction and hamper China's EV and Renewable Energies industry.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Not EV related, but just wanted to post this for anyone interested...

A month ago there was an article about Stellantis ending manufacturing operations in China.
It should be a little bittersweet to hear this news to anyone who is of a certain generation.

Stellantis is the latest inheritor of the Jeep brand, which occupied the unique position as the first Western joint venture manufacturer in the PRC under the predecessor company American Motors (AMC).

As one of the first joint ventures, they had to suffer through many of the hardships of the initial reform and opening up period including the Tiananmen Square protests and consequences, lack of technology, and even lack of hard currency. The latter of which required the personal intervention of a then up and coming Zhu Rongji.

The Beijing Jeep factory's first product was the venerable XJ Cherokee, which was produced well past it's discontinuation in its home market. As part of the initial agreement, AMC had promised to help build a new 4-door off road vehicle for the PLA which ended up being cancelled. BAIC executives had asked AMC whether it was possible to use the XJ to create the PLA vehicle, but they did not feel it was feasible. 30 years later BAIC did actually end up producing the BJ2022 light 4x4 for the army which was based on the XJ.

40 years since starting that joint venture, Stellantis still occupies the same position as AMC Motors. A company struggling to be profitable and survive. The failure to adapt to the changes in the auto market place can be seen in their lazy assessment of their Chinese business prospects. Unreliable JV partners, Chinese government interference and support of domestic makers, and unfavorable economic conditions. These were the exact same problems AMC executives cited 40 years ago when the Beijing Jeep factory was struggling. 40 years ago, they were a company charting the uncertain waters of a fully centrally planned economy to one closer to a free market. However, it is undeniable that the entire country has changed since, the success of foreign automakers in China had people questioning whether domestic carmakers could ever catch up before the dawn of Lithium battery EVs, yet here Stellantis is, rolling out the same excuses as the past.

Although the door has closed on Beijing Jeep, the factory itself is still open. In one of the many subsequent mergers and unmergers (AMC was unmerged from Renault when purchased by Chrysler), Daimler acquired control of the JV plant in the "divorce settlement" and retooled it to produce Mercedes Benz cars. Today the JV lives on as Beijing Benz.
 

Nutrient

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From the Breaking News thread. As the discussion below is about new energy (solar and nuclear), I thought this thread would be more appropriate.


See sources for 3 months payback period for energy alone in terms of EROEI calculation. Most of the cost of the plant isn't energy or raw materials, it's regulatory.
So you switch without warning from EROEI, to cost payback for solar, and back to EROEI for nuclear. In any case, ignoring regulatory cost isn't realistic for nuclear. That cost will never go away -- even in China, which is about as nuclear-positive as anywhere in the world. So your 3-month payback time for nuclear is fairy dust.


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Yawn. These articles merely carp that the transition to solar isn't done yet, even with Germany's Energiewende. Well, no realist ever claimed an instant transition.


In general in the US the amount of overselling, overhype and over promise is insane. I wish it were otherwise. I wish oil/gas were unimportant. But wishes can't substitute for fact.
Xi Jinping isn't known for spreading hype. He promised that China would be carbon-neutral by 2060, and I doubt he would have made that promise if he hadn't believed that it was very likely to happen. Of course, wind and hydro will make some contribution to the carbon neutrality, but I think solar will make the bulk of it -- especially given the news that China's production of solar panels is increasing exponentially.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
From the Breaking News thread. As the discussion below is about new energy (solar and nuclear), I thought this thread would be more appropriate.



So you switch without warning from EROEI, to cost payback for solar, and back to EROEI for nuclear. In any case, ignoring regulatory cost isn't realistic for nuclear. That cost will never go away -- even in China, which is about as nuclear-positive as anywhere in the world. So your 3-month payback time for nuclear is fairy dust.



Yawn. These articles merely carp that the transition to solar isn't done yet, even with Germany's Energiewende. Well, no realist ever claimed an instant transition.



Xi Jinping isn't known for spreading hype. He promised that China would be carbon-neutral by 2060, and I doubt he would have made that promise if he hadn't believed that it was very likely to happen. Of course, wind and hydro will make some contribution to the carbon neutrality, but I think solar will make the bulk of it -- especially given the news that China's production of solar panels is increasing exponentially.
I believe I used EROEI payback for solar, but if I used pure cost then it's my mistake.

It's also not my estimate, it's the estimate of multiple teams of MS and PhD holding SMEs of which you are not one. Take it up with them, not me.

It is difficult to source every one of my facts when nobody else seems to be bound by scientific citations or citing original research so I'll just let Wikipedia do it:

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4-7 years photovoltaic EROEI break even. So shorter than pure cost but not by the orders of magnitude needed to compete with nuclear or hydro.

2060 for carbon neutral is doable without magical thinking for what solar can do.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I believe I used EROEI payback for solar, but if I used pure cost then it's my mistake.

It's also not my estimate, it's the estimate of multiple teams of MS and PhD holding SMEs of which you are not one. Take it up with them, not me.

It is difficult to source every one of my facts when nobody else seems to be bound by scientific citations or citing original research so I'll just let Wikipedia do it:

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4-7 years photovoltaic EROEI break even. So shorter than pure cost but not by the orders of magnitude needed to compete with nuclear or hydro.

2060 for carbon neutral is doable without magical thinking for what solar can do.

As I've said before, EROEI is not a relevant measure when comparing how useful the energy is.

A car with an internal combustion engine only converts petrol into movement with a maximum efficiency of 40%.

An electric car converts electricity into movement at over 80% efficiency

So when used in a car, electricity is TWICE as useful as petrol.
Yet EROEI doesn't capture this. EROEI is fundamentally flawed.

---

4-7 year photovoltaic EROEI breakeven is from 2012-2013 data and is completely obsolete.

It is completely contradicted by the actual electricity produced by major solar projects in recent years.

If I look at the projects built after 2019 on wikipedia below and which have electricity production data, there are for projects in China, USA, Vietnam, Egypt. They end up with the following rough energy payback periods. These are nowhere near 4-7 years you claim.

14 Months
9 Months
11 Months
8 Months
12 Months
15 Months

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaic_power_stations

Anyway, I've said all I have to say on this EROEI nonsense
 
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