UBS: now United Bank of Shenzhen
Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
Maybe in the short term (~ 1 year), but structural imbalance in the USA means there is not the means within the US to make up for the gap such tariff would create, but this gap will need to be filled at some point. However, before it getting filled, inflation will increase (or spike, depending on the implementation of the tariff), and Chinese companies will seek ways around the tariff in the meantime by changing the "place-of-origin" of the final product. All this takes time to counter and overcome, but it does get countered (see latest trade figures from China) and now that China knows the moves, it will be more efficient at countering the next round of tariff.
We have seen this picture before and tariff in and of itself is not a wunderwaffe that people once thought it was. In short, tariff is easy to implement, it is a good red-meat sound bite, and does hurt the opponent in the short term, and the immediate effect also coincides with the time horizon of politicians (i.e. election cycle), therefore it is a tool of choice. But in the medium term, it causes inflation for the regular people, but they don't remember why the inflation is high so politicians get to move on to the next new talking point. And in the longer term.. well, who cares. I am genuinely surprised that those figures are proffered by UBS (a shoddy organization to begin with) but how long will that "halving" last and what kind of damage will that inflict on the US itself?
PikeCowboy
Junior Member
They're essentially asking the government for a legal monopoly... classic rent seeking behaviour. Their argument is also quite convoluted its hard to understand.
More on Vance and why he is very bad news times for everyone everywhere in the world.
Case study: my country
Below actual results in 2015, 2019 and 2023 when "conservatives" won, defended and lost power against "globalist liberals".
Polish parliamentary election, upper chamber results - FPTP, single mandate districts
Polish parliamentary election, lower chamber trends
According to Vance when 19% of eligible voters gain 51% seats that's democracy but when 40% of eligible voters gain 54% of seats and force accountability on the previous government then that's not democracy.
The political opponents are also arrested on criminal charges relating to misuse of public funds for private gain as well as illegal funding of political campaigns. And those are not some minor incidents. The corruption under the previous government was completely out of control and out of proportion.
Poland had historically very low turnouts in parliamentary elections. From 1991 to 2015 the highest turnout was 52% in 1993 and lowest was 40% in 2005 when the current political system with a dominant duopoly (PiS backed by Republicans and PO/KO backed by Democrats) emerged victorious. The elections in 2019 and 2023 were an anomaly, and in particular in 2023 the participation from the youngest voters was particularly high, higher than some of the other groups.
But that's only half of the problem. Knowing the broader context shows just how dangerous and malicious the "Trumpian" right is in particular and what their tools are.
How did "conservatives" win in 2015? They were assisted by Americans who were in the process of buying out Polish media outlets and also used other assets e.g. Israeli online troll networks and used spolier tactics that were a completely unknown in Polish politics but were a standard play in American FPTP. A soft coup.
Since 2015 (actually earlier) an overt two-pronged assault on Polish media (from the "conservatives" and from American capital) put Poland below US in terms of media freedom indices. Believe or not, thanks to two decades of democratic reform post 1991 and EU requirements Poland in 2014 was ahead of the US and UK in press and media freedom in Reporters Without Borders ranking.
2014: Poland #19, US #46, UK #33
2016: Poland #47, US #41, UK #38
2022: Poland #66, US #42, UK #24
This however is not all. It gets worse. American right expects everyone to adopt their values and give a lot of money to that aim.
Polish "conservatives" won in 2015 and immediately proceeded to copy Republican policies of systemic transformation in a state that is based not on English common law and Westminster system but French post-revolutionary model with Civil law. They started treating Polish constitutional tribunals as if they were American SCOTUS. Except that SCOTUS is for life and interprets constitution while Polish tribunals have term limits, reconcile laws with constitution, and also are by law required to work with the European tribunals since Poland is a member of EU and accepts the common legal framework (acquis communitaire). This created complete legal chaos because what works in American system can never work here because we use completely different rules. Also American system is divived between two interpretations of the constitution. We have no such split in the EU - civil law is a positive law i.e. it always changes and adapts to democratic process. "Literalism" in the EU is completely different than in the US. It means what the law means currently and whether a change is required or not. Not what it is supposed to mean forever.
That was what caused the EU to sanction the "conservatives": the overt and deliberate attempt to destroy the legal system, undermine separation of powers and democratic process. But if you follow "Polish" media or "Polish" internet you may be very confused about it all, because you're already within the American-run Overton window which is how Poland went from #19 to #66.
Another thing which the "conservatives" did to harmonise with their American paymasters' ideology was to ban abortion in case of fetal defect. In Poland, unlike the US, regular abortion was already not legal since 1993 (legal before) They did it by using their illegal tribunals because a regular bill could be too easily overturned.
Finally the "conservatives" also began to normalise an attempt to take Poland out of the EU. For those who are not aware, Poland is one of the most consistently pro-EU countries in the Union. (Interestingly American-controlled media normalised the rhetoric giving it the impression that it's a rational position and forcing politicians to debate insane ideas with pathological liars. This way something that is completely against Poland's national interest is being presented as a valid position, just in case DC needs to use it for leverage).
In spring of 2023 level of support for the EU was at 87% and it has never fallen below 65% no matter how the question is framed for political purposes in other surveys. But there was a time when "Polexit" was openly discussed in public ("conservative" controlled) media and commercial outlets. Insanity!
And that is why 74,58% of eligible voters went to the polls and removed "conservatives" from power. But J.D. Vance doesn't acknowledge that because his side lost and he will do everything to put them back in power as soon as he's VP.
The attitude that they had toward Poland extends to every other country in the world.
Except Poland is a NATO ally and one of the most pro-American societies in Europe, as well as one of the very few countries with a sizeable pro-Trump faction. Even at the current moment with "liberal globalist" government in power Trump and Republicans would have better reception to their interest in Poland than in any other major country in Europe, with the exception of (perhaps) Meloni's Italy.
So if that's how they treat us... just how would they treat everyone else???
And as a closing note - if his wife isn't enough, this was Vance's political advisor for his 2022 run:
Are we already in the "repeats as a farce" stage in history or are we already in the next one. Because it feels like we're there.
Case study: my country
Below actual results in 2015, 2019 and 2023 when "conservatives" won, defended and lost power against "globalist liberals".
- PiS (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, lit. Law and Justice) - the "conservatives"
- democratic opposition (various parties, forming coalitions against PiS includig other conservative factions) - the "globalist liberals"
| year | turnout | PiS, seats | PiS, cast votes | PiS, eligible voters | democratic opposition, seats | democratic opposition, cast votes | democratic opposition, eligible voters |
| 2011 | 48,92% | 157/460 | 29,89% | 14,62% | 302/460 | 65,80% | 32,19% |
| 2015 | 50,92% | 235/460 | 37,58% | 19,12% | 208/460 | 44,37% | 22,59% |
| 2019 | 61,74% | 235/460 | 43,59% | 26,91% | 213/460 | 48,51% | 29,95% |
| 2023 | 74,38% | 194/460 | 35,38% | 26,32% | 248/460 | 53,71% | 39,95% |
Polish parliamentary election, upper chamber results - FPTP, single mandate districts
| year | turnout | PiS, seats | PiS, cast votes | PiS, eligible voters | democratic opposition, seats | democratic opposition, cast votes | democratic opposition, eligible voters |
| 2011 | 48,92% | 31/100 | 26,94% | 13,18% | 71/100 | 57,34% | 28,05% |
| 2015 | 50,92% | 62/100 | 40,28% | 20,51% | 38/100 | 41,48% | 21,12% |
| 2019 | 61,74% | 48/100 | 44,56% | 27,51% | 52/100 | 45,28% | 27,96% |
| 2023 | 74,38% | 34/100 | 34,81% | 25,89% | 65/100 | 47,92% | 35,64% |
Polish parliamentary election, lower chamber trends
| year | turnout | PiS cast votes | PiS, eligible voters | PiS, seats | dem opposition, cast votes | dem opposition, eligible voters | dem opposition, seats |
| 2011 to 2015 | +2,0% | +7,69% | +4,50% | +48 | -21,43% | -9,60% | -94 |
| 2015 to 2019 | +10,82% | +6,01% | +7,89% | +0 | +4,14% | +7,36% | +5 |
| 2019 to 2023 | +12,64% | -8,20% | -0,59% | -41 | +5,20% | +10.0% | +35 |
According to Vance when 19% of eligible voters gain 51% seats that's democracy but when 40% of eligible voters gain 54% of seats and force accountability on the previous government then that's not democracy.
The political opponents are also arrested on criminal charges relating to misuse of public funds for private gain as well as illegal funding of political campaigns. And those are not some minor incidents. The corruption under the previous government was completely out of control and out of proportion.
Poland had historically very low turnouts in parliamentary elections. From 1991 to 2015 the highest turnout was 52% in 1993 and lowest was 40% in 2005 when the current political system with a dominant duopoly (PiS backed by Republicans and PO/KO backed by Democrats) emerged victorious. The elections in 2019 and 2023 were an anomaly, and in particular in 2023 the participation from the youngest voters was particularly high, higher than some of the other groups.
But that's only half of the problem. Knowing the broader context shows just how dangerous and malicious the "Trumpian" right is in particular and what their tools are.
How did "conservatives" win in 2015? They were assisted by Americans who were in the process of buying out Polish media outlets and also used other assets e.g. Israeli online troll networks and used spolier tactics that were a completely unknown in Polish politics but were a standard play in American FPTP. A soft coup.
Since 2015 (actually earlier) an overt two-pronged assault on Polish media (from the "conservatives" and from American capital) put Poland below US in terms of media freedom indices. Believe or not, thanks to two decades of democratic reform post 1991 and EU requirements Poland in 2014 was ahead of the US and UK in press and media freedom in Reporters Without Borders ranking.
2014: Poland #19, US #46, UK #33
2016: Poland #47, US #41, UK #38
2022: Poland #66, US #42, UK #24
This however is not all. It gets worse. American right expects everyone to adopt their values and give a lot of money to that aim.
Polish "conservatives" won in 2015 and immediately proceeded to copy Republican policies of systemic transformation in a state that is based not on English common law and Westminster system but French post-revolutionary model with Civil law. They started treating Polish constitutional tribunals as if they were American SCOTUS. Except that SCOTUS is for life and interprets constitution while Polish tribunals have term limits, reconcile laws with constitution, and also are by law required to work with the European tribunals since Poland is a member of EU and accepts the common legal framework (acquis communitaire). This created complete legal chaos because what works in American system can never work here because we use completely different rules. Also American system is divived between two interpretations of the constitution. We have no such split in the EU - civil law is a positive law i.e. it always changes and adapts to democratic process. "Literalism" in the EU is completely different than in the US. It means what the law means currently and whether a change is required or not. Not what it is supposed to mean forever.
That was what caused the EU to sanction the "conservatives": the overt and deliberate attempt to destroy the legal system, undermine separation of powers and democratic process. But if you follow "Polish" media or "Polish" internet you may be very confused about it all, because you're already within the American-run Overton window which is how Poland went from #19 to #66.
Another thing which the "conservatives" did to harmonise with their American paymasters' ideology was to ban abortion in case of fetal defect. In Poland, unlike the US, regular abortion was already not legal since 1993 (legal before) They did it by using their illegal tribunals because a regular bill could be too easily overturned.
Finally the "conservatives" also began to normalise an attempt to take Poland out of the EU. For those who are not aware, Poland is one of the most consistently pro-EU countries in the Union. (Interestingly American-controlled media normalised the rhetoric giving it the impression that it's a rational position and forcing politicians to debate insane ideas with pathological liars. This way something that is completely against Poland's national interest is being presented as a valid position, just in case DC needs to use it for leverage).
In spring of 2023 level of support for the EU was at 87% and it has never fallen below 65% no matter how the question is framed for political purposes in other surveys. But there was a time when "Polexit" was openly discussed in public ("conservative" controlled) media and commercial outlets. Insanity!
And that is why 74,58% of eligible voters went to the polls and removed "conservatives" from power. But J.D. Vance doesn't acknowledge that because his side lost and he will do everything to put them back in power as soon as he's VP.
The attitude that they had toward Poland extends to every other country in the world.
Except Poland is a NATO ally and one of the most pro-American societies in Europe, as well as one of the very few countries with a sizeable pro-Trump faction. Even at the current moment with "liberal globalist" government in power Trump and Republicans would have better reception to their interest in Poland than in any other major country in Europe, with the exception of (perhaps) Meloni's Italy.
So if that's how they treat us... just how would they treat everyone else???
And as a closing note - if his wife isn't enough, this was Vance's political advisor for his 2022 run:
Are we already in the "repeats as a farce" stage in history or are we already in the next one. Because it feels like we're there.
Indians really are everywhere these days huh?
Guess the Jews told them it's their turn now.
PikeCowboy
Junior Member
Huge flaw in argument. Who are the "PiS eligible voters" and who are the "democratic opposition eligible voters" how are these numbers obtained. Are "PiS eligible voters" not allowed to vote for the "opposition“ party. Are "democratic opposition eligible voters" not allowed to vote PiS?
The whole premise of the argument is that a party has rightful capture of their voting electorate and is extremely undemocratic... what ever happened to ANY eligible voter voting for which ever party they saw would be best?
If I misunderstood the tables, its because the table is extremely confusing
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The argument also relies on 3rd party polls too heavily. Theres a reason why voting outcomes often differ from poll predictions.
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Everyone can talk a great game, lets see how he handles the heat when or if he got into office and lose a couple points gdp
I love this guy's posts, man. I always feel like I'm being let in on the secret.
Parts of Toronto, Canada getting flooded.