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Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
Priceless!!

Piers Morgan (UK) being educated by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs (US).....

Also by Prof. John Mearsheimer
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I have a slightly different take; the U.S. knows the war in Ukraine is lost and is preparing to make the Europeans the bag holders via nato. This way, the U.S. can claim its weapons weren’t really defeated in Ukraine and it can hopefully keep its military industrial complex since Boeing is all but going the way of General Motors.

The U.S. needs and wants that war in Asia for reasons Ive outlined earlier, but how will the rest of nato and Europe react when faced with the triple entente of Russia, China, North Korea and even Iran?
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
It ultimately comes down to which fight is preferable. A difficult war in the short term and an occupied population that still has some sort of Chinese identity, or an easier war in the long term and the potential for an insurgency, perhaps even a foreign funded one. I don't really care which option is selected in the end, so long as the choice is a winning choice and the coastline is secured.

Also anyone who still thinks peaceful reunification is possible is ignoring history. Anti-mainland sentiments have been directly proportional to China's economic growth for more than a decade now.
I don't think peaceful reunification is possible, but I would point out that it always works in this fashion.

People have better sentiments towards places that have been richer than them for as long as they've known. During the catch-up phase, people have worse sentiments as they see it as inferiors not "knowing their place". See white American attitudes towards Blacks getting "uppity" and culminating in stuff like the Tulsa race massacre.

It takes a new generation growing up in an environment where the growing power is already richer to start seeing sentiments shift. This is especially true if the incumbent powers have a vested interest in steering perceptions.

This shift will probably become tangible around 2040 or sooner, but regardless of how positively China is viewed, peaceful reunification will never happen. There has never been a case of such in history.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think peaceful reunification is possible, but I would point out that it always works in this fashion.

People have better sentiments towards places that have been richer than them for as long as they've known. During the catch-up phase, people have worse sentiments as they see it as inferiors not "knowing their place". See white American attitudes towards Blacks getting "uppity" and culminating in stuff like the Tulsa race massacre.

It takes a new generation growing up in an environment where the growing power is already richer to start seeing sentiments shift. This is especially true if the incumbent powers have a vested interest in steering perceptions.

This shift will probably become tangible around 2040 or sooner, but regardless of how positively China is viewed, peaceful reunification will never happen. There has never been a case of such in history.

The fact KMT won more votes than DPP in the recent election despite being more pro-China than ever should tell you why Peaceful reunification is still possible. The more powerful China gets, the more unlikely that US can fight a war against China near Taiwan. Power gap between China and Taiwan will also grow to extreme levels. If this trend of increasing power plus increasing greyzone continues, I see a future scenario where Chinese planes directly fly over Taipei and Taiwan simply does nothing.

This increasing power and greyzone will make Taiwanese realize they are utterly powerless against China and has no backing from US. They will simply realize voting KMT into power is the best option. If KMT keeps getting into power consistently, I do see a negotiated reunification at some point in the distant future.

another factor is increased hostility between KMT and DPP. This could lead to a civil war like situation and a KMT or DPP backed coup could lead a split in the island. This might allow China the ability to enter Taiwan with KMT support and therefore easier takeover.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
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China: outbids Australian company to buy Brazilian assets with zero connections to Australia MIC

Australia: NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT.

What's more hilarious coming from this article is in this paragraph:
Should China be successful, insiders believe it would equip the People’s Liberation Army with the intellectual property needed to modernize its soviet era guidance systems and manufacture long range coastal strike weapons deemed ideal for a strike on Taiwan.

Imagine living in June 2024 and still believing that the PLA is some kind of a "people's war" army from the 1970s that is still relying heavily on Soviet support for its military development.
 
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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
The fact KMT won more votes than DPP in the recent election despite being more pro-China than ever should tell you why Peaceful reunification is still possible. The more powerful China gets, the more unlikely that US can fight a war against China near Taiwan. Power gap between China and Taiwan will also grow to extreme levels. If this trend of increasing power plus increasing greyzone continues, I see a future scenario where Chinese planes directly fly over Taipei and Taiwan simply does nothing.

This increasing power and greyzone will make Taiwanese realize they are utterly powerless against China and has no backing from US. They will simply realize voting KMT into power is the best option. If KMT keeps getting into power consistently, I do see a negotiated reunification at some point in the distant future.

another factor is increased hostility between KMT and DPP. This could lead to a civil war like situation and a KMT or DPP backed coup could lead a split in the island. This might allow China the ability to enter Taiwan with KMT support and therefore easier takeover.
As I get older, I start to realize that China doesn't actually need formal reunification. It just needs Taiwan to be a friendly dependent, like, say, Canada for the US. The actual problem with Taiwan isn't that it has its own government, but that said government is willing to work with China's enemies to undermine its interests. Compare that to Canada, which is "independent" in name, but for all intents and purposes is an US dependent that asks "how high" when the US tells it to jump. Where with Taiwan, it doesn't matter that no one important recognizes its independence - it actively works against China, and regards sticking it to China as a source of pride.

That is the actual problem.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
As I get older, I start to realize that China doesn't actually need formal reunification. It just needs Taiwan to be a friendly dependent, like, say, Canada for the US. The actual problem with Taiwan isn't that it has its own government, but that said government is willing to work with China's enemies to undermine its interests. Compare that to Canada, which is "independent" in name, but for all intents and purposes is an US dependent that asks "how high" when the US tells it to jump. Where with Taiwan, it doesn't matter that no one important recognizes its independence - it actively works against China, and regards sticking it to China as a source of pride.

That is the actual problem.

And that aint gonna change unless the US changes or is gone. Otherwise some form of reunification is the only way to achieve this goal.
 
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