Seems like a big nothingburger imo. If WWIII might really break out, I'm sure the three superpowers won't be so calm. France probably already privately communicated to Russia where their troops are going. This seems like the last bluff before peace negotiations.
I’m sure Russia and China are discussing this development at length, but what is the point in talking to Biden? He would have forgotten what was said and agreed even before his aids hung up the phone for him.
While I think WWIII is still an extremely unlikely outcome, it is still nevertheless too real of a possibility for my liking here. But on balance, this looks to be more of a last ditch desperate hail merry from France, which actually makes the risk of escalation higher, but the odds of it leading to WWIII lower.
The key determining factor on whether this becomes WWIII is American direct involvement.
To be frank, if America wanted to manufacture a pretext to get directly involved, it could do it literally any time it wants. It’s quite clear from both words and action that America has zero interest in getting deeper entangled in Ukraine. Indeed, all of America’s words and actions leads to the opposite conclusion, that they are seeking to reduce their involvement in Ukraine and would extract themselves entirely if they could. Hence France’s alarm and desperation to pull America back in.
The French have not yet been thoroughly castrated by the Americans like the British and Japanese, and with Germany having been harvested to obscurity by America, France now sees itself as the king of Europe and hence the pressure to step up in Ukraine. This is why the odds of escalation is higher. Little Napoleon wannabe Macron might overreach and miscalculate trying to prove himself.
In a sense, I actually see a lot of parallels between this entirely unnecessary potential crisis that France is manufacturing for itself, and the Suez Crisis that saw the British get their balls snipped.
If France goes in to Ukraine unilaterally hoping to force America to come and bail them out, there is every chance America will pull the: ‘fuck you’ card and lawyer themselves out of it by declaring Article 5 does not apply since French troops are in Ukraine by choice and fighting the Russians there by choice. After the Russians have beat them up sufficiently, America might then step in to stop it and formally establish itself as France’s new daddy.
