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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
ficker22

ficker22

Senior Member
Registered Member
Overseaschinese said:
Now I'm almost living here in China for about one year and in my life I have visited over 20 countries, including Japan, US, Europe, Singapore, HK, South Korea and Taiwan. When I compare of all of the countries China is the number one in technologies, infrastructure, electric cars and cleanliness. 2009 was my second time in China and how they have changed in a period of 14 years is just crazy. Give China another 10-15 years and every Taiwanese will be jealous.

Last summer when I have visited Taiwan. It feels already so backwards, when compare with China. But my Taiwanese friends are so brainwashed and they don't believe what I have told them about Mainland.

The problem what Taiwan has is the youth unemployment.
Many of my friends are high educated with an engineer degree, but working in a cinema or as a train stuff. That is the situation in Taiwan.

The peaceful reunification will come, when China will ramp up their semiconductor field.
After that time Taiwan will suffer from many economc crisis, which many smart Taiwanese people are willing to move to Mainland to work in the semiconductor or other field, which would benefits China's technology advancement even more.

Taiwan would rely more in manufacturing, services and agricultural. The young people are going to give the government more pressure and they are seeking more help from the west, but the west doesn't need Taiwan anymore, when China is an fully developed and independent economy.

After that Taiwan is lying on their knees and begging for reunification.
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Meanwhile in Germany

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J

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Serb said:
See my previous post, that it's normal for any leading party in the so-called democracies to always perform worse on the following elections.

People simply get bored and vote someone else because they can. That system is made to be very cyclical in nature.

I live beside the EU, and I understand this system very well. What occurred in these Taiwanese elections is very rare. They should've already been out if we follow the norms.

It's incredibly successful for a leading party to repeat 3 election cycles, and still hold 7% lead (as of my knowledge, even impossible).

In reality, DPP should've made a much worse result than this.

It shows that either people are very in line with their policies, or the US has a very strong grip on this country's political system, to be this firm.
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The biggest problem in the Taiwan election was that it became a single issue election in the form of pro vs anti China. DPP has been performing badly economically, saddled with scandals, and mishandled covid, which in other countries would have been voted out, like in NZ recently.

Still DPP won the presidency but with fewer votes than 4 yrs ago, and lost the majority in the Legislative Yuan election, so that's telling. The next 4 yrs will be interesting.

Not withstanding any potential ramifications from mainland China, the voters will find out if their lives will become better or worse under the 3rd term of DPP.

All the best to the Taiwanese voters. They've made the bed, now lie in it.
 
J

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
azn_cyniq said:
China shouldn't use military force unless it is absolutely necessary. It is one thing to hate a country because the media tells you to, and it is another thing to hate a country because people from that country killed your friends and family members. This kind of hate drives people to do seemingly incomprehensible things such as fly a commercial airliner into the World Trade Center or book a one-way trip to Mumbai with the intent of killing as many people as possible. There is a reason why many people in the world hate Americans and Israelis to a degree that is almost incomprehensible to us.
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Not disagreeing with you in general, but please remove the reference of 9/11... unless you can explain why WTC 7 collapsed...
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
supercat said:
For some Indians, what happens now in China can only occur in their dreams.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1746083980657766892
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Has anyone seen the YouTube videos where India apparently hires white families in the US to watch videos about India in their homes to praise what India has accomplished compared to China? They can't even get a white family to travel India to say nice things about them.
 
J

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Why would there be a video???

Just go to the strategy thread and look in my post history.

In simplified terms, Taiwan province houses 23 million, with the vast majority being focused in 6 major cities. I examined if it is realistic for the PLA to conduct these 6 air/artillery battles in parallel, assuming it will take a similar amount of resources to conduct 1 of those urban battles as it takes for the IDF to conduct 1 battle against an urban area with 1-2 million in population.

And the PLA has more than enough munitions/planes/artillery pieces to do that.

To make highly conservative/simplify the calculation, all PLA platforms that don't have a direct counterpart in the IDF were omitted. For example, IDF has no strategic bombers, so the 230+ strong bomber fleet of the PLAAF was simply not counted. It was also assumed that the navy would not participate in any land attacks.

I wanted to make an as over the top conservative estimate as possible, so as to illustrate that Chinese defenses do not hinge on specific wunderwaffen.
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Sorry I haven't looked into your calculation, just want to say that I would think that PLA wouldn't commit more than say 1/4 or 1/3 of its total capacity on Taiwan alone, as the rest must be reserved for other potential fronts and not leave itself vulnerable.
 
A

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overseaschinese said:
Now I'm almost living here in China for about one year and in my life I have visited over 20 countries, including Japan, US, Europe, Singapore, HK, South Korea and Taiwan. When I compare of all of the countries China is the number one in technologies, infrastructure, electric cars and cleanliness. 2009 was my second time in China and how they have changed in a period of 14 years is just crazy. Give China another 10-15 years and every Taiwanese will be jealous.

Last summer when I have visited Taiwan. It feels already so backwards, when compare with China. But my Taiwanese friends are so brainwashed and they don't believe what I have told them about Mainland.

The problem what Taiwan has is the youth unemployment.
Many of my friends are high educated with an engineer degree, but working in a cinema or as a train stuff. That is the situation in Taiwan.

The peaceful reunification will come, when China will ramp up their semiconductor field.
After that time Taiwan will suffer from many economc crisis, which many smart Taiwanese people are willing to move to Mainland to work in the semiconductor or other field, which would benefits China's technology advancement even more.

Taiwan would rely more in manufacturing, services and agricultural. The young people are going to give the government more pressure and they are seeking more help from the west, but the west doesn't need Taiwan anymore, when China is an fully developed and independent economy.

After that Taiwan is lying on their knees and begging for reunification.
Click to expand...
Taipei is not a bad city, but I understand what you're saying. It doesn't really feel like a first-world city, if that makes any sense. That may have to do with the fact that much of Taiwan's GDP is generated by semiconductor companies like TSMC and UMC, most of which are controlled by foreigners. That said, the standard of living in Taiwan is quite good.

What Taiwan needs to do is spend a large percentage of its GDP on R&D (>5%) in the hopes of finding a niche in the global economy and creating another TSMC. Instead, Taiwan wastes billions of dollars a year on overpriced American weapons to prepare for a hopeless war that may never come. Lai says that Taiwan's GDP will grow by 3.5% a year during his term, but nobody, not even him, knows how he will accomplish that. Taiwan has been riding the semiconductor industry's coattails for too long, without giving any thought to the economic future of Taiwan.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
China is about 4 years away from easily able to retake Taiwan and flatten potential opponents. 8 years away it can do it effortlessly. At some point it needs to be done. Not every move has to be "profitable". It is a matter of soverignty and security. I sense a lack or urgency on the government. I begin to fear that even if the navy double in size today, politicians will remain indecisive. At some point I feel Taiwan issue is being blocked by human factors not national capability. 懒政

Once corruption is dealt with, I want the government to be decisive and forward looking. Risk aversion in my opinion is another form of corruption. Risk aversion is favor stability for personal interest than making acceptable risk for country to advance. Classical corruption that pocket public money is being fixed, but there is more to corruption than that! Any form of humanly flaw blocking optimal government functioning is corruption.
 
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