There is something that really bothers me about the Taiwan situation after this election.
And, no, not that I think a war is going breakout.
Disclaimer, I rarely follow mainland China and Taiwan related news, because it is boring. Besides, have no connection to that place, so that is someone else's problem if Taiwan gets invaded by PLA.
It seems kind of apparent, that what the CCP leadership is saying about this new guy, Lai, makes him no different than someone like Lee Denghui.
But that is a long time between these two separatists.
Does not seem to me that the separatist cause has really advanced that much, in all this time. Even Biden has publicly said he as leader of the United States, does not support Taiwan independence, just yesterday, just like every US president before him.
There was a theory back in the day, why Lee Denghui was pushing for independence. The reasoning was that China military was still weak, and if Taiwan declared independence the Americans with a stronger military would back Taiwan in any war.
But time marched on, and that calculus has changed, because China has changed and PLA has changed. Along with PLAN and PLAAF.
In short, we have another separatist leader in Taiwan, where the chances of declaring independence is even more remote, than the chances were in the past.
How did the Taiwan separatist movement arrive at such a dead end?
(This is assuming there will be no attempt at formal independence. After all, the previous leader was a separatist too. Also, Biden did not say go for it.)
Is Tai Du some elaborate and weird troll job at this point in time?
Who knows?
Tai Du is not really going for or campaigning for independence, they are just playing games. This is a serious matter. You don't play games here, yet that is what is going on. Playing games on these matters is a dead end.
But they are still playing games. And that is what bothers me. This is geo-political trolling for basically no effect or no outcome. Which is like, really stupid.
As for China, I think we know what they are going to do, which is increase the grey zone activities, and work on some things to weaken Taiwan some more.
Tsai, and Lai, play games, while the politburo gets on with it, the affairs of state.
That is why I think this Tai Du has reach some sort of bizarre dead end, where the only tangible result at the moment, is the trolling.