Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
As long as Taiwan remains well defended, you don't want to potentially irreversibly upset the locals by dropping a hundred of thousand bombs on them.
It's not about the consumer class on the mainland, who wouldn't be impacted by an exacerbation in the civil war any more than Americans are impacted by wars in the middle east or in south America. Keeping channels open is more about not creating some sort of forever messy, poorly integrated area. China doesn't have a desire for war because of those factors, but that doesn't mean it won't defend itself if attacked.
Agreed, unless the red line is crossed, as Taiwan declares independence, or allows the US to establish a military base in Taiwan; China has no need to and will not act militarily.
Some of these folks don't understand the consequences of these rash actions.
American soldiers are in Taiwan right now.
Yes, but you know what I mean, as like in SK, Japan, and Philippines would be the red line.
A few, as private citizens "on vacation", which means America does not protect them and denies ties with them, any more than the Chinese ex military private citizens in Ukraine means "PLA soldiers fighting right now".
A question, what is the reason for you to misconstruct facts in this particular way? Alarmism to force the government into immediately bombing the rebels? Or something else?
There is something that really bothers me about the Taiwan situation after this election.
And, no, not that I think a war is going breakout.
Disclaimer, I rarely follow mainland China and Taiwan related news, because it is boring. Besides, have no connection to that place, so that is someone else's problem if Taiwan gets invaded by PLA.
It seems kind of apparent, that what the CCP leadership is saying about this new guy, Lai, makes him no different than someone like Lee Denghui.
But that is a long time between these two separatists.
Does not seem to me that the separatist cause has really advanced that much, in all this time. Even Biden has publicly said he as leader of the United States, does not support Taiwan independence, just yesterday, just like every US president before him.
There was a theory back in the day, why Lee Denghui was pushing for independence. The reasoning was that China military was still weak, and if Taiwan declared independence the Americans with a stronger military would back Taiwan in any war.
But time marched on, and that calculus has changed, because China has changed and PLA has changed. Along with PLAN and PLAAF.
In short, we have another separatist leader in Taiwan, where the chances of declaring independence is even more remote, than the chances were in the past.
How did the Taiwan separatist movement arrive at such a dead end?
(This is assuming there will be no attempt at formal independence. After all, the previous leader was a separatist too. Also, Biden did not say go for it.)
Is Tai Du some elaborate and weird troll job at this point in time?
Who knows?
Tai Du is not really going for or campaigning for independence, they are just playing games. This is a serious matter. You don't play games here, yet that is what is going on. Playing games on these matters is a dead end.
But they are still playing games. And that is what bothers me. This is geo-political trolling for basically no effect or no outcome. Which is like, really stupid.
As for China, I think we know what they are going to do, which is increase the grey zone activities, and work on some things to weaken Taiwan some more.
Tsai, and Lai, play games, while the politburo gets on with it, the affairs of state.
That is why I think this Tai Du has reach some sort of bizarre dead end, where the only tangible result at the moment, is the trolling.
For many politicians and career civil servants it's a grift. Look at so many corruption scandals. Some examples over the years
- Lafayette frigate program scandal
- indigenous submarine program scandal
- the indigenous Covid vaccination program, lots of irregularities
- 3 mil NTD cash in a suit case found on a train, traced to some DPPer
- various sinecure positions awarded to relatives and buddies at various seniority levels
Even running an election campaign is apparently profitable. Other than donations, which are required by law to be declared and are published on some government website, there is this beautiful construct called "interest free loan with no repayment time frame", which are of course recorded on some books somewhere but aren't required to be disclosed to the public.
Suppose Taiwan's politicians of all persuasions believe that CCP is as corrupt or worse than them. Still, after reunification they (the Taiwanese) have to start from zero building relations on someone else's turf, whereas now they rule the roost.
"Taiwan democracy is a joke." - Jackie Chan
Once a few dozen soldiers are stationed, they will gradually increase the number. This is the American strategy. Little by little chip away at the one-China principle but in public and to China say they support the one-China principle. Look how they lied to Russia about NATO expansion east.
Americans are pathological liars.
I mean they send "guards" for their trading post there. Which are ex marines or whatever. Since they're just private citizens, they can send a hundred and US still don't have a casus belli if they were killed.
To invade China, US would need a massive force and the supply line to support it.
You're thinking US can do something like Russia did in 2014 to Crimea, but it plainly just doesn't work if the nation being attacked has a ton of defenses in the area.