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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hyper said:
Meh. She still navigated it well. There is no legal compulsion to buy stuff or invest money. It's a trade framework with no legal backing or even any signed documents. 15% tariffs were unavoidable.This deal is still meaningless though. Could be considered as PR to calm the markets.
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Promising and not actually doing 15% tariff on US import alone is a defeat already.

Trump is resetting tariff arrangement and abandoning WTO framework, essentially going back to pre-WTO era when everyone impose tariff on import according to their own decision. That is ok. In that era, US may put 10% on import from China while China put 50% on US import. US can reduce that 10% to 0% if it find the Chinese goods to be desirable, or increase it to 50% if it feels threatened and China won't protest because there is no agreement of how much each other can put up.

With WTO there is an agreement that fixes US and China' tariff rate. So even US increasing from 0% to 5% is a breach of China's right. So retaliation is a must to make a point in bilateral relationship.

The proper handling is that after US raised the tariff to 100%, China does exactly the same. From this point on, both sides would decide what rate they want on their own consideration WITHOUT agreeing any deal. The ratio can change any time to any figure. Even if US imposes a higher figure is still fare after the reset. What should not be done is "agreeing to a fixed ratio scheme" where one side promise to have lower ratio. It is that "promise" being wrong.

This is the difference between China and EU. China put up that retaliation "tit for tat", that is the reset. After that, everything is fare. China may buy more (or less) from US on a case by case level without time limitation.
 
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Hyper

Junior Member
Registered Member
taxiya said:
Promising and not actually doing 15% tariff on US import alone is a defeat already.

Trump is resetting tariff arrangement and abandoning WTO framework, essentially going back to pre-WTO era when everyone impose tariff on import according to their own decision. That is ok. In that era, US may put 10% on import from China while China put 50% on US import. US can reduce that 10% to 0% if it find the Chinese goods to be desirable, or increase it to 50% if it feels threatened and China won't protest because there is no agreement of how much each other can put up.

With WTO there is an agreement that fixes US and China' tariff rate. So even US increasing from 0% to 5% is a breach of China's right. So retaliation is a must to make a point in bilateral relationship.

The proper handling is that after US raised the tariff to 100%, China does exactly the same. From this point on, both sides would decide what rate they want on their own consideration WITHOUT agreeing any deal. The ratio can change any time to any figure. Even if US imposes a higher figure is still fare after the reset. What should not be done is "agreeing to a fixed ratio scheme" where one side promise to have lower ratio. It is that "promise" being wrong.

This is the difference between China and EU. China put up that retaliation "tit for tat", that is the reset. After that, everything is fare. China may buy more (or less) from US on a case by case level without time limitation.
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Okay but what if I told you that tariffs were unavoidable. The best I would tell you to do is to listen to SM Lee where he explains the deep issues and why tariffs won't be removed.
 
V

valysre

Junior Member
Registered Member
CMP said:
I guess we can forget about the middle income trap for India. They'll get stuck in the low income trap indefinitely.
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Observe that the quality of domestic Indian labor is so poor that they may be directly replaced with LLMs even now. Perhaps this is a consequence of a population that tends to ask Grok before even considering thinking for themselves.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
FriedButter said:
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I recall not too long ago that many on this forum called and foreseen this unfortunate events from taking place due to the coming of AI - I recall reading about the doom scenario for India's so called IT industry going through an existential crisis 2 years ago.

The same is about to happen and is already happening with the Philippine call center as well. Already, the pay that companies in that country have largely remained flat. The base pay of 10,000 Pesos has been the same since 2011!! and I saw from a Filipino tiktoker that their generous annual increase is a measly 200.00 pesos!! Their employers have enticed some of the call center agents to be the guinea pigs for the technology - accent replacement/adjuster- that'll be their destruction a.k.a. the so-called creative destruction!! Not to mention that they're getting attacked from people within their profession mainly coming from the American workers that lost jobs to these Filipino call center agents. Most of the comments from these folks range from their better and more polite than Indians; their accent isn't that offensive to the ears and sensibilities of their racist clients and unfortunately, some of them even take gratification from that fact. Which is really sad overall. All the global Poor's are essentially being pitted against each other being told by their western idols that their kind, ethnic groups, religion are the best compared to X,Y,Z...which makes them giddy to go against their own fellow survivors rather than actually asking and demanding WTF to the powers that profit from their misery and stupidity.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Bellum_Romanum said:
I recall not too long ago that many on this forum called and foreseen this unfortunate events from taking place due to the coming of AI - I recall reading about the doom scenario for India's so called IT industry going through an existential crisis 2 years ago.

The same is about to happen and is already happening with the Philippine call center as well. Already, the pay that companies in that country have largely remained flat. The base pay of 10,000 Pesos has been the same since 2011!! and I saw from a Filipino tiktoker that their generous annual increase is a measly 200.00 pesos!! Their employers have enticed some of the call center agents to be the guinea pigs for the technology - accent replacement/adjuster- that'll be their destruction a.k.a. the so-called creative destruction!! Not to mention that they're getting attacked from people within their profession mainly coming from the American workers that lost jobs to these Filipino call center agents. Most of the comments from these folks range from their better and more polite than Indians; their accent isn't that offensive to the ears and sensibilities of their racist clients and unfortunately, some of them even take gratification from that fact. Which is really sad overall. All the global Poor's are essentially being pitted against each other being told by their western idols that their kind, ethnic groups, religion are the best compared to X,Y,Z...which makes them giddy to go against their own fellow survivors rather than actually asking and demanding WTF to the powers that profit from their misery and stupidity.
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So basically instead of demographic dividend it is actually a demographic compound interest..
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hyper said:
Okay but what if I told you that tariffs were unavoidable. The best I would tell you to do is to listen to SM Lee where he explains the deep issues and why tariffs won't be removed.
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Why should I care? Let everyone keep whatever tariff they see fit their own desire for as long as they see fit. That is the whole point of mine, a total reset of world trading order back to pre-WTO time.

If you think that I care of anybody reducing the tariff back to somewhere before, then you totally missed my point. Let me be absolutely frank, I have no desire nor illustion of China reconciliation relationship with U.S. Once the fight begins (by U.S.) it is not up to U.S. to stop. This is the altimate difference between China and most countries (except Russia, NK, Iran and Cuba etc.), the only way forward is to fight to the end which was an official line made few months ago if you remember.

To further clarify my point. US as a member of WTO is renegating its treaty obligation by rasing tariff on anybody without going through due process. If Trump left WTO then it is fair game to raise tariff to whatever level to whomever. In return any WTO member is free to set their tariff on U.S. to whatever level. The tariff ratio after U.S. leaving WTO is a fair game. What China is fighting is U.S. breaking the rule.
 
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