Miscellaneous News

Rettam Stacf said:

It looks more and more Pelosi is going to make the trip. So China and US are on a collision course. This is how I see the whole thing ends.

China declares no fly zone over Taiwan. Two major military exercise are to be held. One in Taiwan Strait and crosses the center line. The second one in South China Sea just south of Taiwan.

Pelosi's plane will be "intercepted and escorted" but won't be fired at. If it turns back, China declare victory and recall her forces.

If Pelosi's plane successfully landed, and while the US and Taiwan celebrate their "victory", the two PLA task forces converge and take Penghu Islands. A draw for China and the US short term wise, but a big win for China in the long term.

A big loss for Taiwan no matter what.

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***shudder***

escobar said:

Even if PLA fear the type of kinetic weapons the US is willing to sell, they can't deter US

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Abominable said:

So he thinks it will occur in international airspace? That would legally be a very grey area. I'd imagine any interception would occur just inside or on the edge of Taiwanese airspace (i.e. not overland) to avoid the overflight escalation.

My point was, if American F-15s are getting shot down even in international airspace, are the Taiwanese F-16s really going to be sat in hangars doing nothing? What about Taiwanese air defence?

To me, Taiwan's response decides whether there will be a reunification war. If Taiwan stands down their airforce and does nothing it's limited to strictly a US-China affair. If you've got a situation where ROCAF fighter jets are scrambling, patriots are painting PLAAF with radars it'll be a very slippery slope to full scale war.

I don't think it'll be an issue to fly in with a commericial airline. The White House can force any airline to comply if that's the plan. It'll be cheaper to lose a commercial jet than a military one.

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plawolf said:

Pelosi’s visit is not tolerated because it would be a significant change to the status quo.

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horse said:

Pelosi herself can state that she was dis-invited by the Taiwan authorities, to not cause a big disturbance.

That would be enough. Regardless if it was true or not.

The Americans have to put up or shut up.

At the moment, they are doing neither.

I am convinced, that something big will happen, and I believe that when Pelosi visits Taiwan in August, that that is the beginning of the end. The status quo will not be allowed to exist anymore. First do a blockade of Taiwan, if PLAAF controls the air, the PLAN will control the sea all around Taiwan choking it off from the world. After softening it up for a few months or a year or two, then launch the invasion.

However, I am not convinced that this Pelosi visit will happen at all.

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coolgod said:

Looks like Biden wants to copy Trump's plan and get Mexico to pay for the wall.

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coolgod said:

Looks like Biden wants to copy Trump's plan and get Mexico to pay for the wall.

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Fernando Bustos Gorozpe was sitting with friends in a cafe here when he realized that — once again — they were outnumbered.

“We’re the only brown people,” said Bustos, a 38-year-old writer and university professor. “We’re the only people speaking Spanish except the waiters.”

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AssassinsMace said:

If Pelosi goes to Taiwan, just start shipping weapons to Russia to make sure Russia wins Ukraine. Losing Ukraine would be a huge blow to the West. There have been comments by Western officials saying if they lose Ukraine to Russia, it truly marks the end of the Western era in the history of the world. Notice no more talk about cancelling or decoupling from China. It's because they tried to cancel Russia and Western economies are suffering because of it. It'll get worse if they try to cancel China because everything will cost them even more than ever. Finding alternatives to China only means it'll cost them more. Lot better than shooting down Pelosi's plane because that gives them excuses. They're going to sell Taiwan weapons no matter what. China should be supplying weapons to Russia.

Zelensky has made sympathetic comments to Taiwan, correct? Make that a big mistake for him.

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Abominable said:

The Status quo has already changed. Previously China did nothing about America sending in government officials to Taiwan. Multiple government officials have said that it won't be tolerated anymore, a clear change in policy.

I agree that Pelosi is not going to Taiwan. If she was, America would be making preparations for war, including withdrawing American civilians from China.

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