In the most recent Guanqi last night, Mr Su was was asked how he think this Pelosi visit thing can go down if it comes to blow, given all the prep work he's seen behind the scene in recent weeks. Mu Su said he doesn't think PLA will hit the big button labelled "forceful reunification", however he thinks it's possible that PLA fighters will get first blood.
He describes this possible scenario:
Pelosi and hanger-on fly into Japan, switch to a C-17 and head towards Taiwan with USAF fighter escort. Along the way they are meet with a group of PLAAF fighters. The PLAAF fighters don't get in their face and do aerobatics or anything, just keep distance and shadow.
Suddenly, all USAF fighters get splashed by unseen assailant and go down in flame, only the C-17 remain with the PLAAF fighters still watching silently from some distance. Seeing this the C-17 then turns around and heads back where it came from.
He said previously he said there exists Plan ABCDEFG, in reality there are a lot more different flavours than that and you probably need all the different letters of the alphabet to describe what PLA could do. Reason is once you start planning this thing all sorts of details will start to emerge. What if Pelosi gets on a commercial flight in first class while the back of the plane is filled with innocent people? What if in addition to doing that, at the same time USAF send a C-17 with escort as decoy? PLA have considered all these different scenarios and have a plan for each situation they can think of.
Mr Su also said this is a good test of weather or not US military really is a stabilising force in China-US relations as it's currently understood. If when the day comes you see PLAAF and PLANAF got a crap load of aircraft all around Taiwan it means there's no trust between PLA and US military, so you can stop thinking of them as a stabilising force from now on. If on the other hand a single squadron of PLAAF fighters take off and just happens to run into and intercept Pelosi then you know indeed the US military is a stabilising force and there's been a sudden phone call between them on the day if you know what I mean.
