Miscellaneous News

Temstar said:

In the most recent Guanqi last night, Mr Su was was asked how he think this Pelosi visit thing can go down if it comes to blow, given all the prep work he's seen behind the scene in recent weeks. Mu Su said he doesn't think PLA will hit the big button labelled "forceful reunification", however he thinks it's possible that PLA fighters will get first blood.

He describes this possible scenario:
Pelosi and hanger-on fly into Japan, switch to a C-17 and head towards Taiwan with USAF fighter escort. Along the way they are meet with a group of PLAAF fighters. The PLAAF fighters don't get in their face and do aerobatics or anything, just keep distance and shadow.
Suddenly, all USAF fighters get splashed by unseen assailant and go down in flame, only the C-17 remain with the PLAAF fighters still watching silently from some distance. Seeing this the C-17 then turns around and heads back where it came from.

Click to expand...

Given the convoy would have likely entered or approached Taiwanese airspace to be engaged, is this likely? Surely the pilot will look to land in Taiwan ASAP.

I don't think a commercial plane will change the plan too much. Any offensive craft gets engaged, anything else will either be denied permission to land or forced to land (with non locals arrested).

What did he think about Taiwan's role in this? If he doesn't think reunification will happen then I assume he thinks Taiwan will stand down their airforce and air defences.

BoraTas said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552306358053126149

Click to expand...

Looks like Biden wants to copy Trump's plan and get Mexico to pay for the wall.

Abominable said:

Given the convoy would have likely entered or approached Taiwanese airspace to be engaged, is this likely? Surely the pilot will look to land in Taiwan ASAP.

I don't think a commercial plane will change the plan too much. Any offensive craft gets engaged, anything else will either be denied permission to land or forced to land (with non locals arrested).

What did he think about Taiwan's role in this? If he doesn't think reunification will happen then I assume he thinks Taiwan will stand down their airforce and air defences.

Click to expand...

Mr Su says a direct overflight of Taiwan landmass by PLAAF have a chance of triggering independence forces within Taiwan to move for immediately independence, which PLA would like to avoid if possible. This is why PLA would rather do something about the Americans coming in to get them to turn around rather than let them land and then overfly the island.

With commercial plane Xi Yazhou points out that no commercial airline going to Taiwan would even think about taking on Pelosi and entourage given the risk involved at the moment, so it's not likely. It will almost certainly have to be a US government aircraft.

Temstar said:

With commercial plane Xi Yazhou points out that no commercial airline going to Taiwan would even think about taking on Pelosi and entourage given the risk involved at the moment, so it's not likely. It will almost certainly have to be a US government aircraft.

Click to expand...

Shocker. An airliner doesn’t want to lose a multi hundred million dollar airplane and then be hit with civil lawsuits while dealing with insurance lol.

Croatia's two parts are now connected without having to cross through Bosnia & Herzegovina.

siegecrossbow said:

This has to be the stupidest way to start a World War ever.

Click to expand...

Yes.

It is.

But gotta to admit, it is a pretty good WWF script.

luosifen said:

Croatia's two parts are now connected without having to cross through Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Click to expand...

Chad Croatia



The bridge further locks out Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Temstar said:

Mr Su says a direct overflight of Taiwan landmass by PLAAF have a chance of triggering independence forces within Taiwan to move for immediately independence, which PLA would like to avoid if possible. This is why PLA would rather do something about the Americans coming in to get them to turn around rather than let them land and then overfly the island.

With commercial plane Xi Yazhou points out that no commercial airline going to Taiwan would even think about taking on Pelosi and entourage given the risk involved at the moment, so it's not likely. It will almost certainly have to be a US government aircraft.

Click to expand...

So he thinks it will occur in international airspace? That would legally be a very grey area. I'd imagine any interception would occur just inside or on the edge of Taiwanese airspace (i.e. not overland) to avoid the overflight escalation.

My point was, if American F-15s are getting shot down even in international airspace, are the Taiwanese F-16s really going to be sat in hangars doing nothing? What about Taiwanese air defence?

To me, Taiwan's response decides whether there will be a reunification war. If Taiwan stands down their airforce and does nothing it's limited to strictly a US-China affair. If you've got a situation where ROCAF fighter jets are scrambling, patriots are painting PLAAF with radars it'll be a very slippery slope to full scale war.

I don't think it'll be an issue to fly in with a commericial airline. The White House can force any airline to comply if that's the plan. It'll be cheaper to lose a commercial jet than a military one.

Abominable said:

I think the most likely outcome is that Taiwan rescinds the invitation. Americans can pretend that they didn't back down and Taiwan doesn't have to go to war.

Click to expand...

Pelosi herself can state that she was dis-invited by the Taiwan authorities, to not cause a big disturbance.

That would be enough. Regardless if it was true or not.

The Americans have to put up or shut up.

At the moment, they are doing neither.

I am convinced, that something big will happen, and I believe that when Pelosi visits Taiwan in August, that that is the beginning of the end. The status quo will not be allowed to exist anymore. First do a blockade of Taiwan, if PLAAF controls the air, the PLAN will control the sea all around Taiwan choking it off from the world. After softening it up for a few months or a year or two, then launch the invasion.

However, I am not convinced that this Pelosi visit will happen at all.

Abominable said:

So he thinks it will occur in international airspace? That would legally be a very grey area. I'd imagine any interception would occur just inside or on the edge of Taiwanese airspace to avoid the overflight escalation.

My point was, if American F-15s are getting shot down even in international airspace, are the Taiwanese F-16s really going to be sat in hangars doing nothing? What about Taiwanese air defence?

To me, Taiwan's response decides whether there will be a reunification war. If Taiwan stands down their airforce and does nothing it's limited to strictly a US-China affair. If you've got a situation where ROCAF fighter jets are scrambling, patriots are painting PLAAF with radars it'll be a very slippery slope to full scale war.

Click to expand...

It's a fair point however situation on the ground is ROCAF have been pretty much lying flat these days. They don't even bother to send up fighters to check out PLAAF aircraft in ADIZ anymore if it's only turboprop planes. When it's go time PLAAF will be blanketing the island in EW and we already have heaps of recording of radio exchange on youtube of ROCAF radar operating ladies calling up pilots saying "Can't see anything but snow on the radar screen, finish the patrol using visual flight rules".