Miscellaneous News

[coolgod]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552306358053126149

Looks like Biden wants to copy Trump's plan and get Mexico to pay for the wall.

 

[Temstar]

Given the convoy would have likely entered or approached Taiwanese airspace to be engaged, is this likely? Surely the pilot will look to land in Taiwan ASAP.

I don't think a commercial plane will change the plan too much. Any offensive craft gets engaged, anything else will either be denied permission to land or forced to land (with non locals arrested).

What did he think about Taiwan's role in this? If he doesn't think reunification will happen then I assume he thinks Taiwan will stand down their airforce and air defences.

Mr Su says a direct overflight of Taiwan landmass by PLAAF have a chance of triggering independence forces within Taiwan to move for immediately independence, which PLA would like to avoid if possible. This is why PLA would rather do something about the Americans coming in to get them to turn around rather than let them land and then overfly the island.

With commercial plane Xi Yazhou points out that no commercial airline going to Taiwan would even think about taking on Pelosi and entourage given the risk involved at the moment, so it's not likely. It will almost certainly have to be a US government aircraft.

 

[FriedButter]

With commercial plane Xi Yazhou points out that no commercial airline going to Taiwan would even think about taking on Pelosi and entourage given the risk involved at the moment, so it's not likely. It will almost certainly have to be a US government aircraft.

Shocker. An airliner doesn’t want to lose a multi hundred million dollar airplane and then be hit with civil lawsuits while dealing with insurance lol.

 

[luosifen]

Croatia's two parts are now connected without having to cross through Bosnia & Herzegovina.

 

[horse]

This has to be the stupidest way to start a World War ever.

Yes.

It is.

But gotta to admit, it is a pretty good WWF script.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Croatia's two parts are now connected without having to cross through Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Chad Croatia



The bridge further locks out Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 

[Abominable]

Mr Su says a direct overflight of Taiwan landmass by PLAAF have a chance of triggering independence forces within Taiwan to move for immediately independence, which PLA would like to avoid if possible. This is why PLA would rather do something about the Americans coming in to get them to turn around rather than let them land and then overfly the island.

With commercial plane Xi Yazhou points out that no commercial airline going to Taiwan would even think about taking on Pelosi and entourage given the risk involved at the moment, so it's not likely. It will almost certainly have to be a US government aircraft.

So he thinks it will occur in international airspace? That would legally be a very grey area. I'd imagine any interception would occur just inside or on the edge of Taiwanese airspace (i.e. not overland) to avoid the overflight escalation.

My point was, if American F-15s are getting shot down even in international airspace, are the Taiwanese F-16s really going to be sat in hangars doing nothing? What about Taiwanese air defence?

To me, Taiwan's response decides whether there will be a reunification war. If Taiwan stands down their airforce and does nothing it's limited to strictly a US-China affair. If you've got a situation where ROCAF fighter jets are scrambling, patriots are painting PLAAF with radars it'll be a very slippery slope to full scale war.

I don't think it'll be an issue to fly in with a commericial airline. The White House can force any airline to comply if that's the plan. It'll be cheaper to lose a commercial jet than a military one.

 

[horse]

I think the most likely outcome is that Taiwan rescinds the invitation. Americans can pretend that they didn't back down and Taiwan doesn't have to go to war.

Pelosi herself can state that she was dis-invited by the Taiwan authorities, to not cause a big disturbance.

That would be enough. Regardless if it was true or not.

The Americans have to put up or shut up.

At the moment, they are doing neither.

I am convinced, that something big will happen, and I believe that when Pelosi visits Taiwan in August, that that is the beginning of the end. The status quo will not be allowed to exist anymore. First do a blockade of Taiwan, if PLAAF controls the air, the PLAN will control the sea all around Taiwan choking it off from the world. After softening it up for a few months or a year or two, then launch the invasion.

However, I am not convinced that this Pelosi visit will happen at all.

 

[Temstar]

So he thinks it will occur in international airspace? That would legally be a very grey area. I'd imagine any interception would occur just inside or on the edge of Taiwanese airspace to avoid the overflight escalation.

My point was, if American F-15s are getting shot down even in international airspace, are the Taiwanese F-16s really going to be sat in hangars doing nothing? What about Taiwanese air defence?

To me, Taiwan's response decides whether there will be a reunification war. If Taiwan stands down their airforce and does nothing it's limited to strictly a US-China affair. If you've got a situation where ROCAF fighter jets are scrambling, patriots are painting PLAAF with radars it'll be a very slippery slope to full scale war.

It's a fair point however situation on the ground is ROCAF have been pretty much lying flat these days. They don't even bother to send up fighters to check out PLAAF aircraft in ADIZ anymore if it's only turboprop planes. When it's go time PLAAF will be blanketing the island in EW and we already have heaps of recording of radio exchange on youtube of ROCAF radar operating ladies calling up pilots saying "Can't see anything but snow on the radar screen, finish the patrol using visual flight rules".

 

[horse]

It looks more and more Pelosi is going to make the trip. So China and US are on a collision course. This is how I see the whole thing ends.

China declares no fly zone over Taiwan. Two major military exercise are to be held. One in Taiwan Strait and crosses the center line. The second one in South China Sea just south of Taiwan.

Pelosi's plane will be "intercepted and escorted" but won't be fired at. If it turns back, China declare victory and recall her forces.

If Pelosi's plane successfully landed, and while the US and Taiwan celebrate their "victory", the two PLA task forces converge and take Penghu Islands. A draw for China and the US short term wise, but a big win for China in the long term.

A big loss for Taiwan no matter what.

Exactly. That is what is going to happen.

Full blockade of Taiwan.

Then what?

Is Pelosi coming back to break the blockade all by herself as the latest and greatest American superhero?

***shudder***