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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
OppositeDay said:
China shouldn't react to American provocations by trying to outdo the Americans. Instead China should take the opportunity to initiate actions that further its strategic goals. As Mao was saying, "you'll fight your battle, I'll fight mine". Be proactive, not reactive. Pelosi's visit is major provocation that will create a rally 'round the flag effects on the Chinese populace to benefits of Chinese government. If China tries to outdo Pelosi by, say, intercept her flight, that will create a rally 'round the flag effects for Pelosi and even Biden. That's her plan. Don't let her succeed. China should take advantage of the rally 'round the flag effects in China while deny the same benefits to Pelosi and Biden.

For example, Xi could take the opportunity to consolidate support for higher military spending. Hu Xijin and Jin Canrong had already called for increased military spending. In doing that, they really did break the rank. It's long been taboo to openly call for increased military spending, and vested interests are against such increases (e.g. what I call China's Infrastructure-Industrial Complex, made of private and state-owned companies and government officials on levels). This would be a perfect opportunity to gather political and public support for substantially increase the military budget. What's going to happen to Pelosi politically in U.S. if her trip only results in photo ops for herself and Xi Jinping consolidating power at the expense of Chinese doves?
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The general idea is sound, but China still need to present itself as tough and strong in the face of continuous salami-slicing by the USA. I would say that China is being forced to.

China has backed down/not taken any action multiple times for so long, in the face of blatant provocation and violation of the One-China Policy and One-China Principle by the US. Now may be the time to finally put the foot down.

If China did not take any solid action this time around, how would the CPC explain to the populace of China, who are increasingly in favor of tougher stances against Taiwan and the US?

Remember that this particular situation came at a crucial time for Xi, with the Party Congress to be held later this year. If Xi wants to have a 3rd term, he needs to act tough and decisive in this confrontation with the US - without causing a war as best as possible.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Major
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Is Kim Jong Un crazy, genius or is he being a good friend to Xi? I say, he's crazy. Dangerous, crazy man. Nothing to do with the recent situation, it just so happens to look like a counterescalation in Korea.
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He's not crazy, just a good friend to Xi.
China urges SK to stick to commitment despite change of govt, as ‘Three No’s’ on THAAD ‘plays key role in mutual trust’
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"A commitment made should be a commitment kept despite change of government," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian on Wednesday, urging South Korea to act prudently over the major issues concerning the security of its neighbors, after the South Korean foreign ministry claimed that the preceding Moon Jae-in government's "Three No's" policy over the THAAD issue is not a commitment to China.
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South Korea is playing with fire again.
 
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Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
escobar said:
US doing shit symbolics by sending Pelosi to TW.
Lot of dudes here: Shoot down her plane

US giving substantive military aid and doing meaningful cooperation/integration with TW
The same dudes: Arms sales are tolerated because that is the status quo.

PLA should send those dudes to fight Pelosi, lol
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Nope, China should start enforcing blockade against US arming of terrorists as well. Both are not mutually exclusive.

Shooting down the US incursion is just the first step. And if that happens, China and America will both be on a path of no return that will end 50 years of illegal US assistance to anti government forces.
 
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OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Is Kim Jong Un crazy, genius or is he being a good friend to Xi? I say, he's crazy. Dangerous, crazy man. Nothing to do with the recent situation, it just so happens to look like a counterescalation in Korea.
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I think Kim was very animated by Putin's war. He did ring Xi and pledged close coordination shortly after the attack began. Remember the famous clip of Imran Khan landing in Moscow. Kim was probably even more excited, and for good reasons. Cold War was a happy time for North Korea.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Remember that this particular situation came at a crucial time for Xi, with the Party Congress to be held later this year. If Xi wants to have a 3rd term, he needs to act tough and decisive in this confrontation with the US - without causing a war as best as possible.
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And maybe... China can silently ask the Russian Navy Pacific Fleet for some help.

Let their Pacific Fleet join China's military exericse during Pelosi's visit, for example. Or send their nuclear submarines to cricle around Taiwan together with the submarines of the PLAN, and/or to tail US Navy task forces in the Taiwan region. Or both.

This could present a China-Russia united front against the US in the Western Pacific. It would be tense for sure, but it can deliver a very useful message.

escobar said:
US doing shit symbolics by sending Pelosi to TW.
Lot of dudes here: Shoot down her plane

US giving substantive military aid and doing meaningful cooperation/integration with TW
The same dudes: Arms sales are tolerated because that is the status quo.

PLA should send those dudes to fight Pelosi, lol
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I am not advocating for shooting down Pelosi's plane. That would only risk sparking the Second Pacific War where both sides would be badly hurt.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
OppositeDay said:
I think Kim was very animated by Putin's war. He did ring Xi and pledged close coordination shortly after the attack began. Remember the famous clip of Imran Khan landing in Moscow. Kim was probably even more excited, and for good reasons. Cold War was a happy time for North Korea.
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If he's ambitious he might believe that the only way to prosperity for NK is recapturing the South and the imposition of China's more direct control over all affairs in Asia.

Certainly, if US invades China and is repelled, NK would stand hugely to benefit. They would have all the sanctions lifted, and always have a preferential seat at the table in Asia. Even if SK didn't join the war and military reunification couldn't happen.

They may be the biggest benefactor of war overall, because with war or no war, China will still be the de facto number 1 country in most metrics. But NK could vindicate 70 painful years of building up militarily for this one moment.

So I could expect Kim to be very hawkish in his advice to China.
 
O

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
The general idea is sound, but China still need to present itself as tough and strong in the face of continuous salami-slicing by the USA. I would say that China is being forced to.

China has backed down/not taken any action multiple times for so long, in the face of blatant provocation and violation of the One-China Policy and One-China Principle by the US. Now may be the time to finally put the foot down.

If China did not take any solid action this time around, how would the CPC explain to the populace of China, who are increasingly in favor of tougher stances against Taiwan and the US?

Remember that this particular situation came at a crucial time for Xi, with the Party Congress to be held later this year. If Xi wants to have a 3rd term, he needs to act tough and decisive in this confrontation with the US - without causing a war as best as possible.
Click to expand...

China can hold a major live fire exercise, like the ones in 1995 and 1996. After the announcement, Americans are going to celebrate for calling China's bluff, then the whole PBSC appear at the exercise and pledge to increase China's defense spending to 2% of GDP from 1.3%.

Normally China's neighbors are going to be spooked by a major increase in Chinese military spending. But this time they will just be glad that a shooting war didn't start.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
One way to avoid all out war might be to allow her to land using a commercial airliner, but send the military to flush out rebels from Penghu, Lianjiang and Kinmen in a surprise raid.

That way, the position of China isn't compromised, US has shown a certain degree of "sovereignty" over Chinese territory by landing Pelosi unlawfully, but China has made a larger show of its ability to ensure territorial defense.
 
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