What I am more concerned is that Pelosi sneak in and out of Taiwan on a regular civilian airline undeclared, only publish the "visit" after she has left. That makes it almost impossible for China to act. The U.S. has done so many times recently, such as a destroyer wondering around in SCS close to Chinese islands and make a dash through territorial water after calculating that PLAN ships too far to intercept. Then US can claim the "win".
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Surely Chinese intelligence would be watching Pelosi's movements like a hawk. I don't really see how she can sneak to Taiwan unnoticed especially when there is so much publicity on this matter
Just wait for her to land in Taiwan first, then set up a blockade preventing her from leaving.
Problem with using civilian airline on a regular route is that it is legal. The only "illegal" one is the passenger onboard the aircraft. And that is only illegal according to China's law in Chinese airspace including Taiwan. It would be controversial if PLA intercepts it or block it in international airspace (not counting Taiwan airspace). Theoretically, without going into war with US, PLA can only intercept it after it has entered Taiwan airspace and force it to turn away.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Not even the point. Pelosi's visit is entirely symbolic as she's totally useless in every regard. This is not like sneaking in a secret weapon at all. It's all symbolism because where Pelosi's physical body is has no intrinsic importance to anyone. If they resort to sneaking her like a rat on a cargo ship, the symbolism is that they yield to China's threat of force and retaliation.
Am I being naive and wishful thinking that common sense will prevail and Veg English will tell Pelosi she's not welcome? I know it's a political suicide to do so for VE, but the alternative could be a suicidal act for the whole island.
VE is the only person who can deescalate this crisis while making both sides (China and US) not to lose face.
VE is the only person who can deescalate this crisis while making both sides (China and US) not to lose face.
Relax!
Which airline or company wants to face China's sanctions?
Even the US military is not willing to carry her.
The airline doesnt have to know, they could sneak her in under a false identity and have her wear one of those Tom Cruise masks in Mission Impossible.... she already has a plastic looking face so its not too hard to put on one more layer...
plawolf
Lieutenant General
You forget there is no such thing as Taiwanese airspace, only Chinese airspace, over the island of Taiwan.
If Pelosi goes on a civilian airliner and said airliner gets instructions from military fighters, no sane or responsible airliner pilot would disobey. Their first and primary responsibility is their duty of care for the safety and wellbeing of their passengers, and they are not going to risk a shootdown just to prove some geopolitical point.
If Pelosi tries to go to Taiwan secretly on a civilian airliner, I think the PLAAF will escort it until it crosses the 12nm territorial airspace limit and then order the pilot to divert to a mainland Chinese airport, where police will be waiting to arrest Pelosi for illegally entering China.
TLDR, trying to sneak into Taiwan secretly on a civilian airliner is going to be a spectacularly bad idea for Pelosi.