Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is Missing

delft

Brigadier
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

One objection to SampanViking's model:
Which rebel organisation controls a runway large enough to receive a 777?
I mentioned Diego Garcia only because it is the only Southern island I know in the Indian Ocean, without looking at a map, with a suitable runway.

Mod note - I did not actually edit anything Delft, I just his the wrong button when I went to reply to your post. - Sampan
 
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SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

You made a lot of good points, but even the explanation of State level intelligence operation could be a tough sell. I mean, if the objective is to prevent somebody or something from reaching Beijing, then a State level intelligence organization would have a million other easier, cheaper, and less risky ways to do it than to make a 777 disappear in the air and appear on international headlines. I can think of no possible scenario that would make any rationally minded state level intelligence organization choosing to do this, instead of just staging an assassination or recovery operation when the target was in Malaysia. Can you think of the cost of pulling this off? Spy have budgets too. Not to mention the catastrophic consequences for the organization and the state if anyone outside found out the truth. You also can't explain this as a last ditch effort, that they couldn't intercept the target before it board the plane, because a stunt like this will take even the most powerful "intelligence organization" weeks if not months or years to plan for. If it is truly a last ditch effort, a state level player could easily just issue a specific terrorist attack warning and force the plane to turn back, then they'll have time to do whatever they need to do in Malaysia; the last thing they want is to hijack the plane with hundreds of civilians and land it on a secret base, only a Bond villain would do that.


I think you are trying to be very kind and I do thank you for that.

I also think we have probably passed the point where something is just too incredible (proper meaning of the word meaning to lack credibility) and it is the media trying to sell the southern route that are suggesting some version of Dr No's Island!

I do agree that this would have been a last ditch action, with the only other option being to destroy the aircraft. You are right about the issue of a terrorist warning, but that would really only be effective if you knew precisely who or what you were looking for. If you do not and only know that the person or the item is on the plane, then a recall would risk scattering all upon return and the risk would be that the person/thing would slip the net and journey on another way. The only way to ensure that nothing escapes is to take the plane; knowing that the target is somewhere on-board, and take it to a secure location for detailed investigation.

What could possibly be worth the risk? Well presumably something important and I again draw attention to the imminent events in the Ukraine and the prospects of a more general East/West confrontation.

Could it all be coincidence? well maybe, but the Viking Icelanders had a lovely old saying, the "accidents were the province of close kin and the elderly". In other words they did not believe in accidents or coincidence. Neither, I suggest do Governments and their Intelligence Agencies. I would incidentally, recommend to all take the time to read the Mediaeval Icelandic Saga's as the accounts of the political power system of the old Republic and the operation of the law at the Allthing are perfect analogies for the workings of International relations and the UN.

All sound far fetched? well maybe, but is not so long ago that the Plane of a Head of State, was forced to land because of a rumour that a former low level NSA analyst may have been on board seeking Political Asylum.
 
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SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

One objection to SampanViking's model:
Which rebel organisation controls a runway large enough to receive a 777?
I mentioned Diego Garcia only because it is the only Southern island I know in the Indian Ocean, without looking at a map, with a suitable runway.

Beyond my ken Delft. Only that it would only need enough to be able to land on and not necessarily need to worry about being able to take off again. If it went to Diego Garcia then there would no need to pretend anything as it would be a clearly open state sanctioned operation. I think the time to be able to do that is now long past...... but I suppose given the overall level of Twilight Zone weirdness, it would be foolhardy to dismiss the option out of hand!
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

The US news outlets are reporting MH370 flew on for about 7 hours, after communication went dark. How does a plane supposedly with only 5 hours of fuel fly for 7 hours? What are the authorities withholding from the public?
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

At this time all we can do now is speculate until the wreckage and blackbox is found and recover.:(
 

joshuatree

Captain
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

The US news outlets are reporting MH370 flew on for about 7 hours, after communication went dark. How does a plane supposedly with only 5 hours of fuel fly for 7 hours? What are the authorities withholding from the public?

I think it was supposed to be a 5 hour flight but enough fuel reserves to push 7. I'm still wondering why MAF did not scramble with a UFO on their radar. Sorta tells me if another state wants to invade Malaysia, their air defenses may not be up to par. And it took them a long time to bring up this info, perhaps aware of the blow back by people like me wondering why no scramble?
 

Quickie

Colonel
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I think it was supposed to be a 5 hour flight but enough fuel reserves to push 7. I'm still wondering why MAF did not scramble with a UFO on their radar. Sorta tells me if another state wants to invade Malaysia, their air defenses may not be up to par. And it took them a long time to bring up this info, perhaps aware of the blow back by people like me wondering why no scramble?

The possibility of a turn back was revealed during the second day news briefing. The military primary radar, as opposed to the secondary radar, doesn't have the capability to identify the aircraft as the MH370. That's why they decided to search both sides of the peninsular. They were only able to determine to a high degree of certainty the identity of the aircraft when the satellite data became available and was corroborated with the primary radar data.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

The US shouldn't be less forthcoming with any information, just so the rest of the 14 countries know where to concentrate their Search & Rescue efforts.
The US is being forthcoming.

In my post I opined that the US seemed to be less forthcoming with Malaysia...and then immediately followed that with the point that the US is being open to the world with their sending of the USS Kidd to the Indian Ocean and the US being forthright to the world about the sat comms it has become aware of where the aircraft pings to try and establish comms which satellites pick up.

So, there was no attempt, either in my post, or in the US actions to not be forthcoming...my point was that in my opinion the US seems to be more and more frustrated or impatient with how Malaysia is handling thing.

I would also question: why the delay of 6 or 7 days in the release of information about the satellite transmissions?
As to why it took so long, well, we are now looking at these hourly pings to satellites. Probably took a day or two (at least) for anyone to think of using them...it is not at all how aircraft are normally tracked. And then they had to get the info from the satellites, analyze it, and then come up with the scenario.

The info we are following now is not something that is readily available as a matter of course. The authorities and analysts in the US and elsewhere are having to dig into the info available from third and fourth level equipment in an attempt to find any information they can use to help track and locate the aircraft.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

The US is being forthcoming.

In my post I opined that the US seemed to be less forthcoming with Malaysia...and then immediately followed that with the point that the US is being open to the world with their sending of the USS Kidd to the Indian Ocean and the US being forthright to the world about the sat comms it has become aware of where the aircraft pings to try and establish comms which satellites pick up.

So, there was no attempt, either in my post, or in the US actions to not be forthcoming...my point was that in my opinion the US seems to be more and more frustrated or impatient with how Malaysia is handling thing.

As to why it took so long, well, we are now looking at these hourly pings to satellites. Probably took a day or two (at least) for anyone to think of using them...it is not at all how aircraft are normally tracked. And then they had to get the info from the satellites, analyze it, and then come up with the scenario.

The info we are following now is not something that is readily available as a matter of course. The authorities and analysts in the US and elsewhere are having to dig into the info available from third and fourth level equipment in an attempt to find any information they can use to help track and locate the aircraft.

With the lack of leads, Malaysia had no choice but to search both sides of the peninsular. They can't just abandon the South China Sea because they have no way of knowing the MH370 did actually make a turn back.

The info we are following now is not something that is readily available as a matter of course. The authorities and analysts in the US and elsewhere are having to dig into the info available from third and fourth level equipment in an attempt to find any information they can use to help track and locate the aircraft.

With the long history of aviation, one would think that this sort of analysis should be quite a standard procedure. And why do they take so long to release the important information that their satellites are receiving pings from the MH370. It's obvious this piece of information alone is the game changer to how successful the S & R would turn out to be.
 
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