Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing
NH 370 took off just after local midnight. It's last known contact with air traffic control was around 1:30AM local time, just after the waxing quarter moon had set to the west. So at the time contact was lost, there was no obvious feature in the sky that would immediately indicate to the cockpit crew the direction of the aircraft. It is possible for pilots to obtain flight direction using the constellation and polaris, but only if the pilot really think it necessary to nevigate by celestial navigation. These celestial features don't jump out at you, especially if you have your hands full dealing with other cockpit emergenies.
It is very rare, but not unheard of, for modern flight by wire aircraft with glass cockpits (ie cockpits with purely computer generated instrument displays, with minimum or no analogue flight instrument backup for compass, guages, and gyros) to suffer total flight instrument failures and blackouts. Airbus A320 is notorious for this.
I know B777 has glass cockpit, and fly by wire. I don't know how much analogue backup there is in the cockpit. If there is none, then it seems possible to explain the current diseaster by postulating a total flight instrument blackout aboard the NH370, just after the moon has set at local time of around 12:40AM. The extend of the failure would be as extensive as total power failure to all flight instrument systems (including communication) and normal lighting. Once this happens, the cockpit would darken, leaving only battery powered emergency lights, and the pilot would immediately have his hands full trying to establish the attitude of his plane with no visibile horizon outside the cockpit, and possibly no artificial horizon in the cockpit. He may or may not have a compass. This would explain why he might wish to turn around, backtrack to find the lights of Kuala Lumpur to reestablish his orientation. It would also explain why he sent out no communication. It would most importantly explain why he was off course while trying to backtrack.
My guess at the moment is the aircraft suffered a total flight instrument and communication blackout around 1 hour into the flight, while over the endless abyssal darkness of the south china sea. The pilot attempted to turn the plane 180 degrees in order to return to Malaysia, where he could be guided by the lights from Kuala Lumpur. But he got disoriented, or instead of fly back on reciprical course, he flew off too far to the west. As he flew west he might have seen many lights from the ships in strait of Malacca, but probably nothing that would indicate to him clearly where he was. It could just as well be the coastal shipping off Malaysia. So he probably kept on flying in the hopes of reaching the clearly recognizable field of light from Kuala Lumpur. But once he is over Andeman sea, he would be over indian ocean and well outside of radar coverage of all any land based radar, and back in abyssal darkness again. Now without instrument he would be totally lost, without any idea which way to head to reach identifable light from ground.
My hunch is the plane could have gone on flying a long time, but without knowing which way he is headed and where he is, it would have been a matter of chance whether he could have flown over somewhere to indicate where he was. If he had initially deviated to the east, he would have flown into the day-night terminator long before the fuel ran out, and could have gotten a near bearing and established direction by the light of the dawn on the eatern horizon. But he flew westwards, and he would be flying away from day-night terminator, and could have gone on flying until he ran out of fuel without ever having any glue where he was or which direction his plane was flying.
Just my hypothesis so far.
NH 370 took off just after local midnight. It's last known contact with air traffic control was around 1:30AM local time, just after the waxing quarter moon had set to the west. So at the time contact was lost, there was no obvious feature in the sky that would immediately indicate to the cockpit crew the direction of the aircraft. It is possible for pilots to obtain flight direction using the constellation and polaris, but only if the pilot really think it necessary to nevigate by celestial navigation. These celestial features don't jump out at you, especially if you have your hands full dealing with other cockpit emergenies.
It is very rare, but not unheard of, for modern flight by wire aircraft with glass cockpits (ie cockpits with purely computer generated instrument displays, with minimum or no analogue flight instrument backup for compass, guages, and gyros) to suffer total flight instrument failures and blackouts. Airbus A320 is notorious for this.
I know B777 has glass cockpit, and fly by wire. I don't know how much analogue backup there is in the cockpit. If there is none, then it seems possible to explain the current diseaster by postulating a total flight instrument blackout aboard the NH370, just after the moon has set at local time of around 12:40AM. The extend of the failure would be as extensive as total power failure to all flight instrument systems (including communication) and normal lighting. Once this happens, the cockpit would darken, leaving only battery powered emergency lights, and the pilot would immediately have his hands full trying to establish the attitude of his plane with no visibile horizon outside the cockpit, and possibly no artificial horizon in the cockpit. He may or may not have a compass. This would explain why he might wish to turn around, backtrack to find the lights of Kuala Lumpur to reestablish his orientation. It would also explain why he sent out no communication. It would most importantly explain why he was off course while trying to backtrack.
My guess at the moment is the aircraft suffered a total flight instrument and communication blackout around 1 hour into the flight, while over the endless abyssal darkness of the south china sea. The pilot attempted to turn the plane 180 degrees in order to return to Malaysia, where he could be guided by the lights from Kuala Lumpur. But he got disoriented, or instead of fly back on reciprical course, he flew off too far to the west. As he flew west he might have seen many lights from the ships in strait of Malacca, but probably nothing that would indicate to him clearly where he was. It could just as well be the coastal shipping off Malaysia. So he probably kept on flying in the hopes of reaching the clearly recognizable field of light from Kuala Lumpur. But once he is over Andeman sea, he would be over indian ocean and well outside of radar coverage of all any land based radar, and back in abyssal darkness again. Now without instrument he would be totally lost, without any idea which way to head to reach identifable light from ground.
My hunch is the plane could have gone on flying a long time, but without knowing which way he is headed and where he is, it would have been a matter of chance whether he could have flown over somewhere to indicate where he was. If he had initially deviated to the east, he would have flown into the day-night terminator long before the fuel ran out, and could have gotten a near bearing and established direction by the light of the dawn on the eatern horizon. But he flew westwards, and he would be flying away from day-night terminator, and could have gone on flying until he ran out of fuel without ever having any glue where he was or which direction his plane was flying.
Just my hypothesis so far.
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