Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

SampanViking said:

If Indeed the Moskva has been hit by missiles (Ukrainian Neptunes or otherwise) it means that we have the first engagement of a major surface combatant with AShM since the Falklands.

The lesson based on the results of a very few actual precedents, is that the Missile invariably gets through.
A sobering thought for all Navies but especially for those that typically operate very far from their home shores.

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Certainly not for the first time since the Falklands. In the 2006 Lebanon War when Hezbollah fired two C802 missiles at Israeli warships, and one hit the corvette INS Hanit.
In 2016, the USS Mason (DDG-87) reported coming under attack in the Red Sea by cruise missiles fired from Houthi group, analysis of the damage caused by that missile led experts to believe it was a Iranian Noor (C-802 Iran version).

SampanViking said:

If Indeed the Moskva has been hit by missiles (Ukrainian Neptunes or otherwise) it means that we have the first engagement of a major surface combatant with AShM since the Falklands.

The lesson based on the results of a very few actual precedents, is that the Missile invariably gets through.
A sobering thought for all Navies but especially for those that typically operate very far from their home shores.

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It’s hard to draw lessons when we don’t know even the most basic facts about what happened yet.

But on the face of it, this seems more like a case of antiquated/inadequate equipment and gross negligence on the part of the Russians more than any other factor.

A Slava should have been able to defend itself against saturation attacks AShMs. And it shouldn’t have been operating so close to shore and it shouldn’t have been operating alone without escorts close by. So many mistakes and failures would have had to happen to make this hit possible.

But I think the main takeaway the PLA should take is that it shouldn’t tolerate 3rd party ISR and AWACS operating close enough to the battlefield to providing real time intel to the opposing side.

In that respect, Taiwan will be much easier since the PLAAF can declare and impose a NFZ big enough to prevent this without needing to infringe upon sovereign airspace of other nations.

plawolf said:

It’s hard to draw lessons when we don’t know even the most basic facts about what happened yet.

But on the face of it, this seems more like a case of antiquated/inadequate equipment and gross negligence on the part of the Russians more than any other factor.

A Slava should have been able to defend itself against saturation attacks AShMs. And it shouldn’t have been operating so close to shore and it shouldn’t have been operating alone without escorts close by. So many mistakes and failures would have had to happen to make this hit possible.

But I think the main takeaway the PLA should take is that it shouldn’t tolerate 3rd party ISR and AWACS operating close enough to the battlefield to providing real time intel to the opposing side.

In that respect, Taiwan will be much easier since the PLAAF can declare and impose a NFZ big enough to prevent this without needing to infringe upon sovereign airspace of other nations.

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I suggest you re-look at the map, the west coast of Taiwan is only 250km from the Yonaguni island of Japan. US and Japanese surveillance platforms are perfectly capable of completing missions within Japanese airspace. Not to mention whether forcing a no-fly zone in international airspace would be a direct conflict with US.

plawolf said:

But I think the main takeaway the PLA should take is that it shouldn’t tolerate 3rd party ISR and AWACS operating close enough to the battlefield to providing real time intel to the opposing side.

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True, but how to do it without shooting US ISR planes? through EW or what?

Confusionism said:

I suggest you re-look at the map, the east coast of Taiwan is only 250km from the Yonaguni island of Japan. US and Japanese surveillance platforms are perfectly capable of completing missions within Japanese airspace. Not to mention whether forcing a no-fly zone in international airspace would be a direct conflict with US.

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I don't think it will matter that much though, Taiwan is far smaller than Ukraine (Russia has already taken an area bigger than Taiwan).

Sure it's an island, and it's 'quite' far away from China, but again, it's an island, it is also quite far away from other countries.

Michaelsinodef said:

I don't think it will matter that much though, Taiwan is far smaller than Ukraine (Russia has already taken an area bigger than Taiwan).

Sure it's an island, and it's 'quite' far away from China, but again, it's an island, it is also quite far away from other countries.

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I don't understand what you mean by "far away".
If Taiwan is "far away" from the mainland, it means that crossing the strait is very far for completing a large-scale amphibious landing operation.
But for the US reconnaissance platform, which only needs to perform surveillance missions and provide warship coordinates, the straight-line distance from the island of Yonaguni to the mainland coastline is only 350 kilometers, which is not far at all.

Intel isn’t going to be worth all that much if the West isn’t on the ground in Taiwan leading the fight as they are in Ukraine.

That said. It hardly matters. If all they provide is intel then Taiwan is already lost. If they directly interfere then those assets will become targets and the theater will be expanded to target Japanese Assets and US Assets.

FriedButter said:

Intel isn’t going to be worth all that much if the West isn’t on the ground in Taiwan leading the fight as they are in Ukraine.

That said. It hardly matters. If all they provide is intel then Taiwan is already lost. If they directly interfere then those assets will become targets and the theater will be expanded to target Japanese Assets and US Assets.

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Please note the context, my response was only discussing plawolf's statement that establishing a no-fly zone to avoid third party ISR and AWACS is not feasible. Please don't broaden the discussion to the point of losing focus.

escobar said:

True, but how to do it without shooting US ISR planes? through EW or what?

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The US will test the waters with unmanned ISR first. Shoot those down and dare them to send in manned ISR.

If China is taking Taiwan back, it must assume the US will get directly involved militarily and be ready to fight and win.

Under than assumption, it may be beneficial to trigger direct conflict sooner rather than later, while the US is still gathering its forces as opposed to when it is good and ready.

I’m not suggesting a Pearl harbour reenactment, but if the US sends manned assets to test Chinese NFZ, the PLAAF must intercept them and force them to land at a Chinese airport under threat of shoot down for non-compliance. If they don’t obey, shoot them down. If the US escalates, retaliate and escalate in kind and obliterate the US base(s) that launched aircraft to attack China or Chinese assets. Leave the Americans a ladder to climb down with, but never back down or show weakness as that will only embolden the Americans to push their luck.

China has fought the US directly in open warfare before. It must show it is not afraid to do so again if needed over Taiwan.

Confusionism said:

I don't understand what you mean by "far away".
If Taiwan is "far away" from the mainland, it means that crossing the strait is very far for completing a large-scale amphibious landing operation.
But for the US reconnaissance platform, which only needs to perform surveillance missions and provide warship coordinates, the straight-line distance from the island of Yonaguni to the mainland coastline is only 350 kilometers, which is not far at all.

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I was talking about 'far away' in terms of the PLA needing to get troops on to Taiwan, which will make it harder for them to take and hold Taiwan (as compared to Russia in Ukraine, since there's a landborder there).