that is pretty much the same mentality that doomed russia's initial assault on ukraine lol.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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The Russian model is exactly why this is a bad idea. The Russians took Crimea and part of Donbas back in 2014. And what happened after that? They got sanctioned and Ukraine got more western support for building up their military. And now, they are putting a real fight. Stop giving terrible ideas.
If you actually follow what's going on across the straits, you'd see that ROC military is already suffering low morale from PLAAF mass incursion into ADIZ where ROCAF is unable to defend itself. PLAAF is able to completely manipulate Taiwanese air defense radar right now. The scope of PLA exercises will simply get larger and more intimidating. Why do you think ROCAF is having trouble recruiting pilots? Why do you think there are so many fatal crashes with ROCAF?
According to the Guardian article that said 70% surveyed want conscription to be extended.
Of course that survey was conducted by a think tank with the name “台灣國…” so I’m sure it’s totally credible.
Wonder if they asked “Do you want to be conscripted?”
Reminds me of the surveys where they say “75% surveyed want independence” followed by “75% think the US and Japan should fight China for Taiwanese independence”
I am doubtful for such survey. Most polls and survey from both pan blue and pan green media all pointed support for shortening the period of conscription for many years. Many Taiwanese even send their children aboard to avoid conscription.
Although, pan green has full control of the media and politics in Taiwan nowadays. I won't rule out they could manipulate the polls and survey to revive the 1 year conscription. It is just that they might not have the incentives to do it as it also affects their own children.
It's probably wrong to underestimate humans, though.
There is as of now no indication that Ukrainian jets have managed to get even a single aerial kill(sorry, ghost myth). Combat sortie:loss ratio is often in low single digits, and many of the attempted missions are almost assured one-way tickets - 1980s aircraft in 2020s threat environment isn't exactly fun and jokes.
Still, Ukrainian pilots continue to take off - orders are orders, oath is oath. And sometimes pull off incredible things like the Belgorod helicopter strike.
Even when they don't really get kills, their role in protecting Ukrainian airspace is non-trivial - AD network just can't reinforce itself on threat axis without planes.
Well, my answer is in response to the idea that capturing a couple of small island will demoralize Taiwan. I don't see how that will demoralize Taiwan more than PLAAF aircraft coming by and not even having the ability to intercept it.
I think the Ukrainians are doing much better than what I would expect ROCAF to do.
If Indeed the Moskva has been hit by missiles (Ukrainian Neptunes or otherwise) it means that we have the first engagement of a major surface combatant with AShM since the Falklands.
The lesson based on the results of a very few actual precedents, is that the Missile invariably gets through.
A sobering thought for all Navies but especially for those that typically operate very far from their home shores.
The lesson based on the results of a very few actual precedents, is that the Missile invariably gets through.
A sobering thought for all Navies but especially for those that typically operate very far from their home shores.
I don't think that this is the right lesson.
IMO the real lesson is to properly invest in modernization, military discipline and training.
We can only hypothesize, but my bet is that it was a human error. Given what we have seen so far in this war, the standards of Russian personnel is far below what a proper military should have.
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