They may serve a purpose of forcing the Taiwan regime to come to the negotiation table. After all, PRC does not want to smash Taiwan to smithereens.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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I think taking those islands west of Taiwan made sense if there were no external adventurers and time was completely on China's side so that the battle tempo and scale were totally in the latter's dictate while the rest of the world simply looked on at a safe distance.
But the Russo-Ukraine war shows that western non-intervention is not going to happen, and China should anticipate foreign interference in the form of weapon aid, political and economic sanctions at the very onset. So a protracted war is not in China's favor, but a short and decisive one is.
Hence in my humble opinion, a total sea and air blockade to prevent weapons getting into Taiwan( made easier because it is an island, unlike Ukraine ), heavy bombardment of all political and military command nodes and air defense systems, followed by the quick occupation of the island within a few days to force America/west to accept the fait accompli.
no doubt, America/west will continue with all forms of sanctions on China for a while, but it will eventually concede defeat, throw in the towel and negotiate with China because those sanctions are a double-edged sword, hurting its own economy and livelihood too.
I believe that China is watching events unfolding in Ukraine closely, learning western tactics and making preparations accordingly.
President Xi can certainly gain some insights from President Putin's responses to the various maximum pressure tactics America and Europe heap on him.
But the Russo-Ukraine war shows that western non-intervention is not going to happen, and China should anticipate foreign interference in the form of weapon aid, political and economic sanctions at the very onset. So a protracted war is not in China's favor, but a short and decisive one is.
Hence in my humble opinion, a total sea and air blockade to prevent weapons getting into Taiwan( made easier because it is an island, unlike Ukraine ), heavy bombardment of all political and military command nodes and air defense systems, followed by the quick occupation of the island within a few days to force America/west to accept the fait accompli.
no doubt, America/west will continue with all forms of sanctions on China for a while, but it will eventually concede defeat, throw in the towel and negotiate with China because those sanctions are a double-edged sword, hurting its own economy and livelihood too.
I believe that China is watching events unfolding in Ukraine closely, learning western tactics and making preparations accordingly.
President Xi can certainly gain some insights from President Putin's responses to the various maximum pressure tactics America and Europe heap on him.
Look at the Taiwan map above. I circle in red the Penghu Islands, Orchid Island (Lan Yu) and Green Island. Yes, they are not a threat to China. Even Kinmen and Matsu, which are right off the coast to China, are not a threat.
But if the three I circled are under PLA control and militarized, would that be an advantage for China to reunify with Taiwan, even without the use of military force ?
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Penghu are a key intermediate hub/safe anchorage/helicopter field within close vicinity of arguably the most convenient entry beaches.
On top of that, it's placed really conveniently to interfere(or prevent interference) with just about any non-northern approaches.
Furthermore, they have a lot of direct offensive potential ("place gun arty/AD bubbles here")
Islands aren't really a "key" to the main island, we aren't in 1683 anymore, but their value nonetheless is really high.
IMHO, at the very least they're to be completely suppressed (which may be pretty hard). If there is any chance of success, taking them first(or simultaneously) is probably worth it.
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Equation
Lieutenant General
Think about the logistics to supply the troops during a time of conflict or wars. One side has to have both air superiority and sea control FIRST to make those occupied islands useful. Other than that, you're just having the first expeditionary force be stuck with dwindling supplies each day as ships and planes has to contend with enemy surface combat ships, ships, and fighters from nearby runways attacking the supply chain. It makes no sense wasting money and lives on a non strategic islands.
Taking penghu without the rest of Taiwan is a terrible idea. China will get sanctioned and villified by the world with little reward. Why do people giving these terrible ideas?
If china really wants to attack Taiwan, it needs to conclude it as quickly and cleanly as possible. It will need to anticipate full blowback from the west. If you are ready to pay the price of an invasion, you better takeover the whole island.
If china really wants to attack Taiwan, it needs to conclude it as quickly and cleanly as possible. It will need to anticipate full blowback from the west. If you are ready to pay the price of an invasion, you better takeover the whole island.
Does Taiwan not have Active Reserve forces like western armies?
Otherwise, this "Civil Defense training" sounds pointless and a joke.
Air guns! Might as well play Call of Duty and call it a day.
Firing M249 Para in Counter-Strike was fun.
In real life firing M249/C9 was even more awesome.
Demonstrably less awesome is carrying it, and all the extra weight vs. a rifleman for XX Kms.
Taiwan did away with the mandatory conscription to an all-volunteer military in 2018. All males still require to have 4 months of training but in practice many get away with 2 weeks if they attended in some form of military training classes in high schools or colleges. Due to this reform, Taiwan military manpower is only 2/3 of requirement and only 60-80% of military assets have enough soldiers to man.
Most of the Taiwan 2.3 million reserves would be formed by these youngsters with 4 months or less training. At the moment, reserves would spend 5-7 days on refresher training courses every year(Taiwan government is thinking to extend it to 2 week training courses).
I have serious doubt that both the Taiwan government and its people have the will to fight and defend Taiwan against China invasion. I think the biggest obstacle for China is still landing 2-3 army corps of troops on Taiwan. If that can be done, then the war would be over within weeks or even days. Not that China shouldn't plan for the worst case scenario but don't overestimate Taiwan either.
How long does the standing army train?
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