Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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So far I only heard of one major Russian cyberattack on this war. The Viasat hack.
If Russia wanted to take down Ukraine's power grid, they control the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at 5700 MW power.
They can just shut it down any time they want.

They also control the Zaporizhzhia thermal power station. That is a fossil power plant complex with 3650 MW capacity.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

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Trash article.

1. Believes conscription is in use in China reflecting a severe ignorance of what 服兵役 and 义务兵 actually means in practicality.

2. Believes that PLA was "army centric" because of institutional bias and not because of actual defense needs.

3. Doesn't understand the economics behind the difference between China and Russia.

4. Completely ignores the naval aspect

5. Asserts corruption is a problem for Russia but somehow not for Ukraine which has equal or higher corruption then attributes the same corruption to China, with the evidence that many corrupt officials are punished. I believe very few corrupt officials are punished in Ukraine or Russia, by the author's logic....
 

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
@reservior dogs great analysis bro and from my take the Taiwanese screw themselves by allowing the US to harvest their Tech, the last guarantee protection will be gone when the Arizona FAB is operational, everybody is talking about 2025 as an infection point, after the US get's what it wanted will they heroically defend Taiwan? couple with eventual introduction of a Chinese EUVL? and full spectrum localization of 7nm and above? Will the Chinese hold back seeing how the US respond in Ukraine and how the European forced the US to pivot back to Europe, straining their limited resources even more? Can Japan and the Mini Pinscher Australia the designated hound dog handle China?

Bro IF there will be a War, the first to leave are the traitors leaving behind people that are susceptive cause there are no Taiwan culture to speak off, It's all in their imagination propagated by the CIA.

Inflection point*
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
@reservior dogs great analysis bro and from my take the Taiwanese screw themselves by allowing the US to harvest their Tech, the last guarantee protection will be gone when the Arizona FAB is operational, everybody is talking about 2025 as an infection point, after the US get's what it wanted will they heroically defend Taiwan? couple with eventual introduction of a Chinese EUVL? and full spectrum localization of 7nm and above? Will the Chinese hold back seeing how the US respond in Ukraine and how the European forced the US to pivot back to Europe, straining their limited resources even more? Can Japan and the Mini Pinscher Australia the designated hound dog handle China?

Bro IF there will be a War, the first to leave are the traitors leaving behind people that are susceptive cause there are no Taiwan culture to speak off, It's all in their imagination propagated by the CIA.

Taiwan doesn’t have much special tech. TSMC process lead is simply because they occupied a space that Intel wasn’t interested in which turned out to be a mistake (low power consumption CPU).

Semiconductors is just a bogeyman for politicians to use to promote “Taiwan Freedom” today. A few years ago it was “Island building”, and before that it was “1000’s of ballistic missiles”, and before that “unstoppable human wave”. In the end, from the big picture, Taiwan is a foil. Something to make China uncomfortable.

The nominal economic cost of gaining an extra 7 to 20nm of chip real estate is not worth a war for either side. If Taiwanese government thinks that is true they are stupid beyond words. Force Apple to use Intel and lose an hour of iPhone battery life or risk a Nimitz class CVN sunk by an AShBM, the answer is obvious
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
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I’ve been reading the forum for some time now and something that strikes me about Ukraine is how command and control appears to be much improved due to NATO taking over the Ukraine command structure.
Given reports of how much the Taiwan based ROC high command is sympathetic of unification, can we also expect the US to decapitate the ROC high command itself (either via mass arrests and forced resignations) and commandeer the ROC forces itself?
I would say unlikely but not an impossibility, although at the end of the day, even if they did do something like that, chances are still pretty big that we won't see that much/big of an improvement due to various factors and in general Taiwan =/= Ukraine and China =/= Russia.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no question taking control of Penghu Islands is critical for controlling the Taiwan Strait.

But are you suggesting to take control of the islands East of Taiwan prior to reunification by force ? There are two of them I am aware of - Green Island (~20 miles East of Taitung County) and Orchid Island (~40 miles East of the Southern tip of Taiwan). Is there any more islands East of Taiwan under their administration ?

Militarily, it will be more challenging for the PLA to take control of these islands than those West of Taiwan.
taking those islands is pointless, they do not pose a threat, and taking them does not give the PLA any advantage.
 
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