Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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drowingfish

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tch1972 said:
Logistic and total air superiority.

Once landed on the island, PLA got no place to retreat. If logistical chain is disrupted, it will be gameover.

I don't expect ROC army to fought like Ukrainian. Yes in the past but fighting capability of Taiwanese forces was cripple by domestic politics in the last 20 years.

Still PLA can't afford to be complacent. Human reacts different if their survival is at stake. To migitate the problem, China should offer the Taiwanese an attractive alternative prior to 'invasion' after the island return under her rule.
Never overlook the importance of psychological warfare. And the ability to communicate effectively is one of the weakest link for China.
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your point about logistics is spot on. if the US were to intervene, their best bet is to attack PLA logistics while its force is engaged on the island, this is another reason why I advocated for taking penghu and other islets.

russia's experience in ukraine also shows that even if the attacker seeks a quick decisive battle, it must also be prepared for a drawn out battle. this will also include precautions to isolate the theatre with or without carrier battlegroups.
 
Aegis21

Aegis21

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I think one important lesson China might take from the war is that an invading power needs a guarantee of security against outside intervention. Russia has been able to keep the Americans out of the conflict with the threat of nuclear weapons. This is a luxury other invading powers like Iraq didn’t have. If China significantly expands its nuclear arsenal, it could act as a guarantor against Western intervention.
 
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drowingfish

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Aegis21 said:
I think one important lesson China might take from the war is that an invading power needs a guarantee of security against outside intervention. Russia has been able to keep the Americans out of the conflict with the threat of nuclear weapons. This is a luxury other invading powers like Iraq didn’t have. If China significantly expands its nuclear arsenal, it could act as a guarantor against Western intervention.
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nukes are a good backstop, but it might not be enough to prevent intervention if you present a juicy target in the form of a brigade on landing ships. China will have to be able to maintain a buffer east of Taiwan, if possible with carriers, if carriers are unable to get there or stay there, then this is where long range missiles and bombers will have to do the job. this is also why DEAD is so important in this scenario, as it will enable some freedom of movement of PLAAF over the island.

I propose taking the islets first with these matters in mind as well, many of those islets are decked out with anti air anti ship assets, simply suppressing them will not guarantee safety of that area, as well as preventing effective fire against anti air assets in Taiwan itself.

People who favor china would like an invasion that is quick and free of intervention, that may very well be achieved, but a drawn-out war with intervention from the US and allies must also be planned for. if US deployments indicate that it is likely to intervene, then the PLA may not want to conduct a landing operation on Taiwan itself because even if it manages to get its landing force across the strait, it cannot guarantee the security of supply lines until it is able to create a buffer east of Taiwan. taking the islets, however, do not have that issue because they are closer to the mainland and require less force and thereby less logistics. those are much smaller targets that the US is unlikely willing to reveal its hands over.

so to preempt a potential intervention, take the islets to secure freedom of movement over the strait, then DEAD of Taiwan proper to secure freedom of movement out to the pacific. from there use penghu as a base for, air defence, long range fire and helicopters, and pound away at Taiwan's coastal defence until it collapses.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

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Given the US is afraid to directly get in involved for fear of Russian retaliation, it's probably likely in a Taiwan scenario too. Like I said before in this thread... lots of stand-off weapons just raining down on Taiwan. Some people are talking about how China needs to invade and take over Taiwan as fast as possible. I have no idea that's even possible. Taiwanese do seem like they would fold easily while spitting venom but who knows. That's why lots of stand-off weapons to destroy Taiwan's economic and military infrastructure to take it off the game board for the foreseeable future no matter who wins. That would be the initial primary goal and not how the US thinks China wants Taiwan's technology. That's Taiwan's only worth. It's not like Ukraine where most of their support in the West comes from them just being white. Yes, it's true and Taiwanese ain't white. There's talk about how to end Putin's war is that Ukraine will have to give up any thoughts of joining NATO and even territory. After all these Ukrainian victories...? That's how the Taiwan scenario will likely have to play out... shock and awe beating them into submission from a distance. That's how the US does it. That's how the US avoided the sight of dead American soldiers which in Ukraine Russia didn't do and that's where the West is exploiting in propaganda Russian losses. Taiwan is talking about obtaining UAVs because of how they were used in Ukraine. UAVs aren't going to counter missiles and bombs dropping from the air. They will have nothing to show what their UAVs have done. To avoid foreign support China will have to mine the waters off of Taiwan so they will have enter at their own risk. Anything coming through the air... continuous bombing of anything that can be used as a runway where it would be too risky to fly in.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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I believe that one of the major Russian failures is to allow their soldiers to be captured or killed, and have it shown on TV. That raises Ukrainian morale.

In a Taiwan scenario I believe it is better to go fast but best to reduce own casualties while maximizing those of the enemy even at the cost of speed. This way there are no possible propaganda wins like a PLA contingent being captured or PLA planes being downed. Even if shot down, bailing out over China or the ocean for a PLAN rescue is better than bailing out over Taiwan and getting captured.

Use of standoff weapons, carpet bombing, artillery, drones and airpower while holding amphibious forces as a feint and forcing Taiwanese forces to drive around and expose themselves, or taking weak outlying islands during the conflict (but not before) is the way to go, before the final move on Taiwan itself.

This is to demoralize them through one sided attrition and making them waste fuel driving around, and maybe even catch them out of position.
 
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reservior dogs

Junior Member
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First, I am not even sure if it is desirable for China to take back Taiwan in the next decade. Taiwan certainly provide leverage that the U.S. is using against China. It is also working the other way around. Going forward, the leverage will increasingly be in China's favor, so it is advantageous for China not to take back Taiwan for now.

Having said that, if China were to take back Taiwan, there are a few things that China has which does not apply to the Ukrainian situation.

1. China do intent to occupy all of Taiwan for the future. They have the ability to continue this occupation for decades until a new generation of Taiwanese growing up under the new environment which will be molded by media and schools that the Chinese can have control over.

2. The U.S. has assets all over the first island chain that will be held hostage to Chinese counter attacks. The escalation path is easily controlled on the Chinese side but not so easy to control by Washington. The Chinese can go from attacking an empty base, to kill a few hundred U.S. servicemen to full occupation of islands. Would the U.S. be willing to risk climbing this escalation ladder?

3. On the Taiwan side, the Chinese also have many levels of escalation that the Russians do not have. They can boycott Taiwan businesses. They can blockade the island and dare the U.S. to come to the rescue. They can take one of the small islands near Taiwan.

4. The Chinese are much richer compared to Russia. Their MIC is much more developed compared to Russia. Their drone production, electronic warfare etc. are much more advanced compared to Russia.

5. Taiwan is much smaller compared to Ukraine. If they bombard the island at night and land the next day, they could be in control of ports and airports in a couple of days time, then it is game over. A U.S. attack will not change the outcome. There will not be any fight while negotiating as happens in Ukraine.
 
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Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
Given the US is afraid to directly get in involved for fear of Russian retaliation, it's probably likely in a Taiwan scenario too. Like I said before in this thread... lots of stand-off weapons just raining down on Taiwan. Some people are talking about how China needs to invade and take over Taiwan as fast as possible. I have no idea that's even possible. Taiwanese do seem like they would fold easily while spitting venom but who knows. That's why lots of stand-off weapons to destroy Taiwan's economic and military infrastructure to take it off the game board for the foreseeable future no matter who wins. That would be the initial primary goal and not how the US thinks China wants Taiwan's technology. That's Taiwan's only worth. It's not like Ukraine where most of their support in the West comes from them just being white. Yes, it's true and Taiwanese ain't white. There's talk about how to end Putin's war is that Ukraine will have to give up any thoughts of joining NATO and even territory. After all these Ukrainian victories...? That's how the Taiwan scenario will likely have to play out... shock and awe beating them into submission from a distance. That's how the US does it. That's how the US avoided the sight of dead American soldiers which in Ukraine Russia didn't do and that's where the West is exploiting in propaganda Russian losses. Taiwan is talking about obtaining UAVs because of how they were used in Ukraine. UAVs aren't going to counter missiles and bombs dropping from the air. They will have nothing to show what their UAVs have done. To avoid foreign support China will have to mine the waters off of Taiwan so they will have enter at their own risk. Anything coming through the air... continuous bombing of anything that can be used as a runway where it would be too risky to fly in.
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There is no question taking control of Penghu Islands is critical for controlling the Taiwan Strait.

But are you suggesting to take control of the islands East of Taiwan prior to reunification by force ? There are two of them I am aware of - Green Island (~20 miles East of Taitung County) and Orchid Island (~40 miles East of the Southern tip of Taiwan). Is there any more islands East of Taiwan under their administration ?

Militarily, it will be more challenging for the PLA to take control of these islands than those West of Taiwan.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Rettam Stacf said:
There is no question taking control of Penghu Islands is critical for controlling the Taiwan Strait.

But are you suggesting to take control of the islands East of Taiwan prior to reunification by force ? There are two of them I am aware of - Green Island (~20 miles East of Taitung County) and Orchid Island (~40 miles East of the Southern tip of Taiwan). Is there any more islands East of Taiwan under their administration ?

Militarily, it will be more challenging for the PLA to take control of these islands than those West of Taiwan.
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No, I'm saying just bomb Taiwan into submission through standoff weapons at every level. If they're discussing Ukraine give up territory and make geo-political concessions with all these Ukrainian victories, then just strategically bomb Taiwan into submission with a sustained campaign. Despite Ukrainian military victories against Russia, they know the bombing will continue hence why they're talking about giving concessions including territory to Russia to stop the war.

Personally it's hard to believe Russia was naïve about the consequences but then maybe they weren't. The West was teasing they were going cancel China without an invasion as a reason. Well let them do that and let the bombing of Taiwan commence. They want to punish China as if they did invade Taiwan so why not? Let it happen that way.

Also Taiwanese could care less about human rights. I'm sure the Taiwanese are just like those Hong Kong activists that beat up people for not following them while hiding behind democracy. I remember debating someone defending Taiwan in this forum when China built those hospital ships. This person argued despite international law, Taiwan has the right to target those hospital ships in a war. Then they would probably argue their right to kill civilians on the Mainland. When that happens then China should do the same in Taiwan using the same excuses.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
reservior dogs said:
First, I am not even sure if it is desirable for China to take back Taiwan in the next decade. Taiwan certainly provide leverage that the U.S. is using against China. It is also working the other way around. Going forward, the leverage will increasingly be in China's favor, so it is advantageous for China not to take back Taiwan for now.

Having said that, if China were to take back Taiwan, there are a few things that China has which does not apply to the Ukrainian situation.

1. China do intent to occupy all of Taiwan for the future. They have the ability to continue this occupation for decades until a new generation of Taiwanese growing up under the new environment which will be molded by media and schools that the Chinese can have control over.

2. The U.S. has assets all over the first island chain that will be held hostage to Chinese counter attacks. The escalation path is easily controlled on the Chinese side but not so easy to control by Washington. The Chinese can go from attacking an empty base, to kill a few hundred U.S. servicemen to full occupation of islands. Would the U.S. be willing to risk climbing this escalation ladder?

3. On the Taiwan side, the Chinese also have many levels of escalation that the Russians do not have. They can boycott Taiwan businesses. They can blockade the island and dare the U.S. to come to the rescue. They can take one of the small islands near Taiwan.

4. The Chinese are much richer compared to Russia. Their MIC is much more developed compared to Russia. Their drone production, electronic warfare etc. are much more advanced compared to Russia.

5. Taiwan is much smaller compared to Ukraine. If they bombard the island at night and land the next day, they could be in control of ports and airports in a couple of days time, then it is game over. A U.S. attack will not change the outcome. There will not be any fight while negotiating as happens in Ukraine.
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@reservior dogs great analysis bro and from my take the Taiwanese screw themselves by allowing the US to harvest their Tech, the last guarantee protection will be gone when the Arizona FAB is operational, everybody is talking about 2025 as an infection point, after the US get's what it wanted will they heroically defend Taiwan? couple with eventual introduction of a Chinese EUVL? and full spectrum localization of 7nm and above? Will the Chinese hold back seeing how the US respond in Ukraine and how the European forced the US to pivot back to Europe, straining their limited resources even more? Can Japan and the Mini Pinscher Australia the designated hound dog handle China?

Bro IF there will be a War, the first to leave are the traitors leaving behind people that are susceptive cause there are no Taiwan culture to speak off, It's all in their imagination propagated by the CIA.
 
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Jason_

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It is pretty much consensus that prior to landing on Taiwan main island China will:
1. Perform a sustained air campaign in the mold of Operation Desert Storm, with DEAD and OCA as the minimum objective, the destruction of fixed strategic targets as the objective of the first phase and the attrition of Taiwan ground forces by some percentage deemed necessary as the second phase (a rule of thumb is that <15% of sorties in ODS are for strategic targets/OCA, while 85% sorties are for ground forces)
2. Completely incapacitate all of Taiwan's naval forces
3. Capture the Penghu archipelagos, given the tactical benefits of Penghu's location (helicopter operations, rocket artillery range coverage, etc.)

Following the Ukraine conflict, some of the lessons learned would be:
  • Power and communication infrastructure should be included in the strategic targets list
  • Facilities that allows for drone operation should be included in OCA targets list
  • Training camps that would train, equip and house mobilized reserves should be prioritized
  • Operations like seizing Penghu should be done with minimum casualties, and ideally with Taiwanese surrender, given the morale aspects of such a victory
  • Airborne or helicopter assaults are high risk and should not be done in the opening stages of the war, given that failure will be highly visible and disproportionately boost enemy morale
 
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