Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Think about the logistics to supply the troops during a time of conflict or wars. One side has to have both air superiority and sea control FIRST to make those occupied islands useful. Other than that, you're just having the first expeditionary force be stuck with dwindling supplies each day as ships and planes has to contend with enemy surface combat ships, ships, and fighters from nearby runways attacking the supply chain. It makes no sense wasting money and lives on a non strategic islands.
Those occupied islands can be used to place SAMs. In addition they have an airfield and harbor where, once local air superiority (not even over all of Taiwan, just the strait) is attained, you can start putting cruise missile, artillery and rocket batteries there.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Taking penghu without the rest of Taiwan is a terrible idea. China will get sanctioned and villified by the world with little reward. Why do people giving these terrible ideas?

If china really wants to attack Taiwan, it needs to conclude it as quickly and cleanly as possible. It will need to anticipate full blowback from the west. If you are ready to pay the price of an invasion, you better takeover the whole island.
You don't stop at Penghu, just don't bypass it. I used to think the same but it looks like bypassing it may not be possible, and suppression could be more costly than just landing Marines and taking it.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taking penghu without the rest of Taiwan is a terrible idea. China will get sanctioned and villified by the world with little reward. Why do people giving these terrible ideas?

If china really wants to attack Taiwan, it needs to conclude it as quickly and cleanly as possible. It will need to anticipate full blowback from the west. If you are ready to pay the price of an invasion, you better takeover the whole island.
As the Ukraine war is demonstrating, morale is very important. Think about the effect on ROC soldiers morale when every day they hear the news about another island surrendering. They'll just wait until it's their turn to surrender.

If you follow the Russian model of going straight for the capital, all the troops will still be fresh and highly motivated. Every day they'll be hearing stories of another Chinese ship carrying troops to Taiwan getting sunk, whether those stories are true or manufactured doesn't matter.

The PLA will need momentum, get a string of victories and the enemy will refuse to fight for a doomed cause. Cutting corners is not a good idea.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
As the Ukraine war is demonstrating, morale is very important. Think about the effect on ROC soldiers morale when every day they hear the news about another island surrendering. They'll just wait until it's their turn to surrender.

If you follow the Russian model of going straight for the capital, all the troops will still be fresh and highly motivated. Every day they'll be hearing stories of another Chinese ship carrying troops to Taiwan getting sunk, whether those stories are true or manufactured doesn't matter.

The PLA will need momentum, get a string of victories and the enemy will refuse to fight for a doomed cause. Cutting corners is not a good idea.
Too slow. Anything that extends America's reaction time is too slow. The most important thing is to demoralize America; make it so that China advances so fast they can't have a briefing because by the time they're done with a 30 minute meeting, the situation already shifted further in China's favor. Make sure they know that Taiwan is a lost cause; slowly island-hopping is giving them the oppertunity to move while Taiwan is still intact. The Taiwanese will also be demoralized when in 15 minutes, they realize that every military installation and capital building is already on fire from the missile barrage and the PLAAF are all over their skies. Those who want to fight don't even know where to report to because their commanding officers are all dead or without communication and their bases are rubble; 0-100 total utter flaming chaos. Heavier sleepers in non-strategic regions should sleep right through it; they should go to sleep with everything normal and wake up to the knock of PLA soldiers delivering their relief/aid package with him wondering if it's April Fools or Halloween. Demoralizing, overwhelming and stunningly fast: that's what's needed and the PLARF are geared to do it. Don't play with your food when there are other hungry large animals eyeballing you and your meal.
 
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supersnoop

Major
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22 weeks training for officer. After that, you can sign up for 1 year. If no issue, then you can sign up for 1 year contract, 2 years contract or even 3 years contract.

But they don’t have like US National Guard/Active reserve then? Nothing training year round?

I think it would help them a lot to implement such a system.

That news article made me laugh. Everyone talking and LARPing, surveys say everyone will sign up for military service, real numbers are another story.
 

supersnoop

Major
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You don't stop at Penghu, just don't bypass it. I used to think the same but it looks like bypassing it may not be possible, and suppression could be more costly than just landing Marines and taking it.

The OP had an idea that the PLA can take Penghu in the interim. Similar to Crimea, that’s what he was responding to. Makes no sense to me either. It’s a half-measure with full consequences
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Too slow. Anything that extends America's reaction time is too slow. The most important thing is to demoralize America; make it so that China advances so fast they can't have a briefing because by the time they're done with a 30 minute meeting, the situation already changed more in China's favor. Make sure they know that Taiwan is a lost cause; slowly island-hopping is giving them the oppertunity to move while Taiwan is still intact. The Taiwanese be demoralized also when in 15 minutes, they realize that every major military installation is already on fire and the PLA are all over their skies. Demoralizing, overwhelming and stunningly fast; that's what's needed. Don't play with your food when there are other hungry large animals eyeballing you and your meal.
I agree, after the opening hour with missile strikes we're probably very quickly gonna see drones and airplanes over Taiwan 'cleaning up' things.

The smaller isles along with Taiwan itself will most likely then be boarded and taken by marines not that long after.
 

KYli

Brigadier
But they don’t have like US National Guard/Active reserve then? Nothing training year round?

I think it would help them a lot to implement such a system.

That news article made me laugh. Everyone talking and LARPing, surveys say everyone will sign up for military service, real numbers are another story.
No, nothing likes that. They used to have conscription from 2 years to 1 year to now 4 months. 4 months is a joke but they can't do much about it as conscription is very unpopular.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
View attachment 86846

Look at the Taiwan map above. I circle in red the Penghu Islands, Orchid Island (Lan Yu) and Green Island. Yes, they are not a threat to China. Even Kinmen and Matsu, which are right off the coast to China, are not a threat.

But if the three I circled are under PLA control and militarized, would that be an advantage for China to reunify with Taiwan, even without the use of military force ?
Penghu is definitely a must take, same with Kinmen, matsu and dongyin. but those two on the east of taiwan you circled are pointless unless the war is dragging on for so long and the chinese decides that it is worth to take those two and place anti air/anti ship assets on them. even then resupplying those two islands will be tough.
 
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