Given the draft system is what he was describing, my point is that the conscription system he described doesn't exist.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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Given the draft system is what he was describing, my point is that the conscription system he described doesn't exist.
This is a major question actually because the best response to medium UAV is to strike their command center and shut a whole bunch off at once.
The reason is technical:
Typically these command centers are major RF emitters - they need a 2 way datalink that is high resolution enough to encode real time high resolution video and radar signals. As you understand, real time video and radar data is a major bandwidth hog. It is difficult to produce RF energy, they need a ton of electricity. The command centers are unlikely to be moving much because of that.
Otherwise, other was of shutting them down are not so good. they have less takeoff constraints than manned fixed-wing in terms of ammunition (some can even be loaded by hand) and runways (take off from roads and fueled by gasoline) which makes them difficult to shut down by hitting airbases. They don't cost that much (TB2 costs only $1 million) so your CAP time is even more worth it.
Russia likely already struck known command centers with anti-rad missiles. But the drones are still operational. One guess is that they escaped the eyes of Russian tactical aviation. Didn't happen in Syria though. So the more likely explanation is that they're being piloted by commands from the known E-8s circling in Poland, Romania and Hungary.
Evidence for my theory: most TB-2 strikes are in the west and north. None were in the East where the Ukrainian Army is getting encircled and eliminated with artillery.
Why is this important? Because apparently, it seems Russia is unable to jam the datalink. This means that if you're unable to jam the datalink, destroying enemy ground stations is insufficient to eliminate the UAV threat. They can still be controlled by foreign planes outside the zone of conflict that you can't shoot down without escalation.
TW is a bit different. TW is surrounded by international water. So yes, E-8s can circle east of TW in international waters puppeteering Taiwanese UAVs that survive. PLAAF can also send J-16s at them and they can figure out if they want to play the game of chicken.
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PGMs and loiter drones are the best bet for initial and sustained strike against Taiwan . We havn't seen what an actual industrial superpower fully committed to a war looks like, so I am just guessing. Given Taiwan's close proximity to China, and China's industrial capabilities. I think if China have decided military is the only option, it can relatively easily(2 to 3 years) stockpile 10000 short/medium range cruise missile and upto 100,000 AI programed suicide drones. PLA can start the war with saturation attacks in very large waves. There is no way to control the drones, the suicide drones will be used similar to the rolling artillery of WWI. PLA can send them out ahead of their naval landing force and air landing force and essentially kill anthing that shoots back. Essentially overwhelme Taiwan with multiple naval/air landing.
I never really thought taking Taiwan military would be very difficult for China, its what happens after that's the chanlledge.
I never really thought taking Taiwan military would be very difficult for China, its what happens after that's the chanlledge.
My biggest takeaway is that this guy is your biggest enemy.
There is a saying in China — once the arrow is launched, there is no looking back. Make sure that every contingency is accounted for before you make a massive geopolitical gamble.
There is a saying in China — once the arrow is launched, there is no looking back. Make sure that every contingency is accounted for before you make a massive geopolitical gamble.
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Those TB-2s UKR purchased don’t have satcom, I don’t think Russians had done it thoroughly ,maybe they deliberately avoided destroying the runway and those drones were not on the ground when the missiles came
First,Taiwan doesn’t have such drones, not yet
Second, if Taiwan ever purchased drones, it would be Tengyun/MQ-1/MQ-9, which are equipped with satcoms and Americans could just control them from the US/Japan/Guam, E-8s will be irrelevant anyway
But they ARE getting more and more MANPADS and ATGMs , you are assuming they will be fighting for victory which isn’t possible ,keep in mind that a large portion of them are just brainwashed jihadist without Koran ,the sheer idea of making them surrender is over optimistic and irresponsible, it could be done if we just destroy everything on that island but as we all knew the chance of PLA doing that is extremely low.
You don’t know till you do, but I assume it will take more time than Russians do, more forces are needed and more plans have to be made, it’s a lot more complicated here
OK. I agree. Problem is that the MQ-9s are turboprops and use kerosene while TB2s are piston and use gasoline. Though that is probably avgas and not gasoline used in cars, it still means TB2s can be fueled with an easily portable and disguised fuel than kerosene which is rarer and harder to hide.
In addition, TB2s are light enough to tow in cars (675 kg), have munitions light enough to load by hand (<150 kg) and can take off from short runways. MQ-9s are way heavier than cars (2200+ kg empty) and require a runway.
I actually think TW using MQ-9s is not so bad because it will likely be taken care of in the first wave of SEAD strikes. To me, MQ-9s look to be designed as a COIN weapon because it seems like they don't think their home base will be threatened and they'll have runway, fuel depots, etc. TB2 seems better designed for conventional conflicts.
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