Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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optionsss

optionsss

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T-U-P said:
How long would it take for China to gather enough forces for an actual invasion? Russia took a few months and it was clearly being monitored. China must have some sort of contingency plan for a sudden change in status quo, right
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I believe Taiwan is hoping for a 6 month warning. The actual concentration of force would be very hard to disguise. If China learned anything from the current conflict is that he risk of sudden attack with inadequate force would be very high.
 
Philister

Philister

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OK. I agree.
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Problem is that the MQ-9s are turboprops and use kerosene while TB2s are piston and use gasoline. Though that is probably avgas and not gasoline used in cars, it still means TB2s can be fueled with an easily portable and disguised fuel than kerosene which is rarer and harder to hide.
FairAndUnbiased said:
In addition, TB2s are light enough to tow in cars (675 kg), have munitions light enough to load by hand (<150 kg) and can take off from short runways. MQ-9s are way heavier than cars (2200+ kg empty) and require a runway.

I actually think TW using MQ-9s is not so bad because it will likely be taken care of in the first wave of SEAD strikes. To me, MQ-9s look to be designed as a COIN weapon because it seems like they don't think their home base will be threatened and they'll have runway, fuel depots, etc. TB2 seems better designed for conventional conflicts.
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You know what I think？they should go for Mojave
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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T-U-P said:
How long would it take for China to gather enough forces for an actual invasion? Russia took a few months and it was clearly being monitored. China must have some sort of contingency plan for a sudden change in status quo, right?
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I don't think it will matter because China is not Russia and Fujian is not Voronezh. Voronezh is one of Russia's major agricultural regions and is mostly flat farmland. The buildup was visible because it was in depots in the open. Russia also wanted to do this to intimidate and hopefully get what it wanted without actually invading.

China knows that it will be an actual war. So the buildup will be attempted to be hidden. How?

Well, that brings us to why Fujian is not Voronezh. Fujian is almost a continuous urban region from Xiamen to Fuzhou. There are thousands of warehouses and massive port facilities. All military supplies requiring stockpile can be brought in during the dead of night in sealed containers and put in warehouses. for military vehicles, ferries/landing craft are pre-loaded and dispersed.
 
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Vatt’ghern

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I think it's inevitable that Australia and Japan are going to be involved in this operation as well, given that the US are passing on intel and targeting specs to the Ukrainians; this means we can expect PLARF to target the massive US spy station in central Australia - the same one the US uses t co-ordinate drone attacks.
 
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tiancai8888

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I have a question, Could China be able to fully block the starlink connection above taiwan when the starlink upgrade to 2.0?
I mean EW , not ASAT
 
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Jason_

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It's not clear to me why China would need to build up at all. Clearly, the bottleneck is the sealift capacity. China can ship units to the port of embarkation as new sealift capacity becomes available, with only a small buildup to smooth the process. In any case, the Eastern Theatre Command has 3 Group Armies with 18 maneuver brigades and the PLAN marine corp has another 8 brigades. It's well know that the sole purpose for these units are the Taiwan contingency.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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FairAndUnbiased said:
I don't think it will matter because China is not Russia and Fujian is not Voronezh. Voronezh is one of Russia's major agricultural regions and is mostly flat farmland. The buildup was visible because it was in depots in the open. Russia also wanted to do this to intimidate and hopefully get what it wanted without actually invading.

China knows that it will be an actual war. So the buildup will be attempted to be hidden. How?

Well, that brings us to why Fujian is not Voronezh. Fujian is almost a continuous urban region from Xiamen to Fuzhou. There are thousands of warehouses and massive port facilities. All military supplies requiring stockpile can be brought in during the dead of night in sealed containers and put in warehouses. for military vehicles, ferries/landing craft are pre-loaded and dispersed.
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The extent of air and naval mobilization in addition to ground mobilization (not only of mechanized forces but of air defenses) would be quite observable.

Perhaps the exact extent of it could be hidden, but foreign intelligence services will absolutely be capable of detecting a multi-month long buildup prior to initiation of hostilities on the scale that would be required for a proper Taiwan contingency that involves an invasion.


In other words, any PLA planning for such a contingency has to inevitably assume a fair degree of foreign forewarning. True strategic surprise will probably be impossible, though operational surprise might be viable.
 
grulle

grulle

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I hope China can take Taiwan back in our lifetime, peacefully or otherwise. when you guys think CHina will be powerful enough to pull it off?
 
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