Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Who cares if TB-2 is controlled by the West or Ukraine? If you are China, you need to cut off that communication regardless of who you are dealing with.

ecaedus said:

that means cutting off all 20 something cable landing stations simultaneously in a joint precision strike, in addition to somehow blocking all satellite internet capable dishes running off of diesel electric generators in TW to ensure an absolute info blackout. I strongly doubt if the PLA currently has, or if ever will have, this kind of total EM dominance over TW.

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I don't quite understand why this needs to be done at the same time. You can just send ballistic/cruise missiles over and whatever gets knocked out gets knocked out. Once that air defense is weakened, you can then come and take care of all the aircraft sitting in the hangar, the communication stations, the power stations, the cable companies and their backup generators. Whatever you can't knock out, you try to jam it by stationing 1 or 2 GX EW aircraft there at all times. And you station 1 ELINT aircraft there at all time to continue sniffing out all the outgoing communications.

ecaedus said:

on the point of countering the numerous ATGM/SHORADS/MANPADS etc. that TW will now surely order in the thousands after this conflict, would a combination of loitering smart munitions and ISR drones in great numbers be a valid counter?

I'm thinking in between the phase 1 massive precision strikes and the amphibious land assault, multiple swarms of these ISR/suicide drones can be deployed from 075/CVs to provide 24/7 coverage of potential landing zones to either a) attract and waste enemy weapon stockpile b) actively seek out and destroy human operators of such weapons

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There is no point for Taiwan just getting too many MANPADS and ATGMS. They need to replace the ones they have with the newest they can find. PLAAF will for sure send over a lot of UCAVs, J-6/7 drones and other assets to try to find these things and take them out. Again, it needs to convert all the old aircraft to drones. It also needs to add as many modern UCAVs as possible.

Ex0 said:

They are just ideas. Of course in reality china would need to ramp up production and do everything in the right order with the right timings(most important). Air drops would only be after flattening the whole island and every area, making Taiwan troops only be able to be scattered and hiding.

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Stop saying things like flattening the whole island. PLA is not going to do that. We are having this whole discussion because the best way for them to take over Taiwan is a quick campaign that causes local to give up and surrender without causing large amount of casualties. You don't want rest of the world charging China with war crimes.

Phead128 said:

On the point of countering SHORADs, all PLA low-altitude assets like UCAVs, helicopters, etc... should have

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-like hard-kill active protection system (APS) in order to bait out SHORADs for target identification and follow-up elimination by other assets (UVACs, missiles, etc...) Is this feasible or possible to develop a hard-kill APS system like Israeli

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, but for Helicopters (attack/transport) and UCAVs? I think such a system would be highly valuable as it can extend the time helicopters can loiter, which can make-or-break a war.

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I think improving APS would be good idea. In the end if they are getting involved in this, they have to be prepared to take some hits and losses. The question is how you can keep your sorties going and destroy the SHORADs before they destroy you. That would have to rely on improved sensors on your ground attack aircraft and improved sortie rates. The more trips that JH-7A and J-16s can make through the battle field and take out different SHORADs and combat vehicles, the better you will do.

Again, PLAAF should be using PGMs a lot more effectively than the Russians.

Broccoli said:

When I ask why we don't of then see J-10's or J-16's carrying target pods, people always tell me they aren't needed etc, but clearly this should a wake up call that modern air force needs targeting pods because it's best way to take out targets from air. Or that PLAAF doesn't require such capability because PLARF missiles will take care of the problems.

I've always written that modern air force needs modern targeting capablity and plenty of PGM's.

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That's because PLAAF does not really like to use J-10s for ground attack. On top of that, J-16s are still used more in the role of offensive A2A missions. That's why you don't see them carrying target pods. JH-7A should be using it. I'm sure if they are using J-16s for ground precision attacks, they will also hook up targeting pods.

All of this is to say they still need to invest more in PGMs and targeting capabilities.

Ex0 said:

They are just ideas. Of course in reality china would need to ramp up production and do everything in the right order with the right timings(most important). Air drops would only be after flattening the whole island and every area, making Taiwan troops only be able to be scattered and hiding. To surround airdropped troops would mean they show themselves and in numbers, and china could flatten them from sky and sea still etc. Or china could just be continuously flattening area to make space for airborne troops to secure landing site. They just need to provide enough cover to open the floodgates and once open, its game over. So they just need to create a tiny window which I think is easily accomplished, even if some risk and sacrifices will be necessary. It is war after all. But in the big picture it will be a steamroll.

China has the capability to make all these happen if it chose to do so. China could even use civilian transports and airdrop using those also. That is the strength of china and united country. Time is on chinas side, and china is the one that has all the cards. It can choose the exact moment to attack, or not at all. They could even give Taiwan up and allow usa troops to have base there for decades, I mean that's how it used to be when usa was much stronger and china weaker. Doing that today would just be sacrificial bluff by usa(which china would call just like Korea) and serve no real military purpose since they'd all just die if china attacked. So yeah.. if it does choose to attack, it will have everything in place to do any kind of attack they want.

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You are making these complex and resource and competency intensive operations sound like they are easily achievable, and that once they succeed at the operation then it will be game over.

But attaining those operations in the first place is far from easy, and instead of thinking about what the PLA can do after they've succeeded, we should be thinking about what they need to organize and procure to achieve those operations to begin with.


Re-read your post and see the number of times you've written "if China just does xyz". And think about how difficult it is to actually do those things.

China should also stop recruiting conscripts. Whole armed forces should be voluntary. You don’t want soldiers who would give up / surrender the moment they hear a gun shot. I firmly believe gulf war was a missed opportunity for China to get real military experience. For starter, May be China can abandon non-intervention policy and help Nigeria to combat BokoHaram terrorits ?

tphuang said:

That's because PLAAF does not really like to use J-10s for ground attack. On top of that, J-16s are still used more in the role of offensive A2A missions. That's why you don't see them carrying target pods. JH-7A should be using it. I'm sure if they are using J-16s for ground precision attacks, they will also hook up targeting pods.

All of this is to say they still need to invest more in PGMs and targeting capabilities.

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That's an outdated view.

Americans use F-16 for ground attack and J-10 is doing the same role PLAAF, except of course that flexibility, what if JH-7A ain't around and bombs need to be be dropped?

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

China should also stop recruiting conscripts. Whole armed forces should be voluntary. You don’t want soldiers who would give up / surrender the moment they hear a gun shot.

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Real question -- do you believe China has conscription?


This is a very elementary foundation for PLA watching, and it is concerning that you believe there is anyone in the PLA who is not a volunteer.

Looking at current events in Ukraine and during the Libyan civil war where CNN and western media would show russian and Gadaffi military assets and positions to the rest of the world - and enabling the enemy to target and/or prepare, it goes without saying that the Chinese should institute an information blackout, jamming and cutting internet cables.
There's no reason westerners living in the comfort of their lounges should indulge in war porn when Chinese lives are at stake.

Bltizo said:

Real question -- do you believe China has conscription?


This is a very elementary foundation for PLA watching, and it is concerning that you believe there is anyone in the PLA who is not a volunteer.

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Umm I used to think its a hybrid of conscription & voluntary. My bad I wasn’t very much upto date on this fact.

Because of the distance involved, the Taiwan operation will be the first missile war ever, both offense and defense. China really should increase its military spending to 4-5% of its GDP until the Taiwan problem is solved, so it can produce sufficient cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as PGMs and UCAVs, in addition to improve its missile defense. Also, it must strengthen its strategic nuclear strike capability ASAP.

As for what's missing from the Russian AF, where are all the UCAVs?

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

Umm I used to think its a hybrid of conscription & voluntary. My bad I wasn’t very much upto date on this fact.

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... How can you make such a big call while not being sure about something so significant.

They have a conscription system that is not enforced in any manner because they have so many volunteers, and everyone in the PLA are volunteers.
In other words, there are no "conscripts" who are part of the military against their own will.

Bltizo said:

... How can you make such a big call while not being sure about something so significant.

They have a conscription system that is not enforced in any manner because they have so many volunteers, and everyone in the PLA are volunteers.
In other words, there are no "conscripts" who are part of the military against their own will.

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They do punish those who regret volunteering though. There have been a few cases reported where the young fellows could not take the boot camp training anymore and screamed quit. Once they were dishonorably discharged, they lost quite some social and economical benefits, such as not to be accepted by colleages for a few years, not to be employed in public services, much higher bar for bank loans, etc.

In other words, the conscription laws are still enforced in some way, except military drafting.