Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
I'm not sure what your point is.

The issue here is the difficulty of armor and infantry vehicles fighting in urban settings.

I'm saying the PLA can simply avoid getting into such fights in the first place.

I have no clue how you managed to interpret that as saying don't send any vehicles onto the island.
You are thinking about urban fighting while I am thinking about vehicles on the island.

That is what I mean by missing my point. We are thinking of completely different subjects. The base comment for vehicles exclude the talk about urban fighting.

Just to make it clear but are you suggesting China only send troops or troops and armored vehicles but keep vehicles outside urban areas onto the island.

Anyway. Let’s just move onto a different topic from this conversation.
 
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sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
Cut of electricity... by that time the Taiwanese are probably getting used to blackouts.
They getting all their electricity from China?

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Elon: New phone, who dis?

Jokes aside, any satellite internet antenna will be instantly picked up by ELINT and will have a missile sent its way by the nearest aircraft on patrol.

Like in Ukraine?
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
They getting all their electricity from China?
Taiwan island’s electricity infrastructure is notoriously poor.

I was there in 2000’s and there was a blackout of the entire northern section of the island including Taipei for 2 days. Apparently one HVPL from the main nuclear plant failed, that’s all it took. These sort of multi day black outs occur quite routinely.

Furthermore, the current government lead by the DPP party has indefinitely suspended construction of a new nuclear power plant (make love, not electricity, their actual slogan) because it’s nuclear and won’t build coal plants because of pollution.

There was another person who mentioned “informatization”. Got me thinking, PLA must have the most detailed urban and topographical maps built over the years. Through Machine Learning, they could conceivably come up with good ATGM/MANPADS hiding spots. A drone with thermal camera could scout all these locations during the initial wave, and even being correct 30% of the time would be useful.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The DPP are some of the biggest NIMBYs in the world. Only new generation is some natural gas burning power plants i.e. LNG.
And last major build of that was like a decade ago.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I don't know if anyone else has realized, but China has positioned itself in such a way that the more Taiwan focuses on effectively defending itself (by building up it's economy), the more likely peaceful reunification becomes. Conversely, the more Taiwan focuses on preventing peaceful reunification (by sabotaging its economic ties to the Mainland), the easier armed reunification becomes.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Taiwan island’s electricity infrastructure is notoriously poor.

I was there in 2000’s and there was a blackout of the entire northern section of the island including Taipei for 2 days. Apparently one HVPL from the main nuclear plant failed, that’s all it took. These sort of multi day black outs occur quite routinely.

Furthermore, the current government lead by the DPP party has indefinitely suspended construction of a new nuclear power plant (make love, not electricity, their actual slogan) because it’s nuclear and won’t build coal plants because of pollution.

There was another person who mentioned “informatization”. Got me thinking, PLA must have the most detailed urban and topographical maps built over the years. Through Machine Learning, they could conceivably come up with good ATGM/MANPADS hiding spots. A drone with thermal camera could scout all these locations during the initial wave, and even being correct 30% of the time would be useful.

Looks like the electricity infrastructure on the island is about to collapse on its own. These are just some of the outages since March, 2022. The ridiculous part is the execuses the power grid and the authority were using.

On Mar 3, a massive power outage hit the island. Out of the total 14 million households, more than 5 million didn't have electricity for hours:
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On Mar 4, Gaoxiong, where it was hit hard the day before, had it again. The local grid claimed that the photovoltaic powerstations could not keep up after sunset:
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On Mar 13, the grid was on the brink of collapse. The consumption peaked for more than an hour, leaving only 8.04% capacity as redundancy:
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On Mar 15, Xinbei and Gaoxiong had power outage. more 4000 households were affected. The reason was "a shortcircuit caused by a bird":
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On Mar 16, Jilong had an outage. The culprit was an electrically fried squirrel:
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These are the execuses by the power grid accounted by SETN (三立, a pro-secession media):
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1.jpg

DPP started blaming the outages on mainland saying all the incidents were works of CPC's "fifth column":
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以来,岛内几乎每天都在停电。台南永康6天内停电5次,高雄3月8日7600户停电;3月11日,台湾桃园国际机场第二航站楼发生大停电;3月12日,新北市汐止区3980户停电;3月13日,新北市林口区1800户停电、台北市万华区1100户停电;3月15日,新北市中和区2127户停电、高雄市大社区和燕巢区2000户停电;3月16日,台湾基隆市7831户停电……

对于停电原因,民进党当局先后给出了“民众修剪树木压断电缆线”“外包工人用油压剪剪断电缆”“小鸟致绝缘器破裂”“松鼠触电造成短路”等理由。
16日上午,民进党“立委”许智杰在台“立院”交委会上称,经查最近几次大停电,不管是台电还是桃园机场,几乎都是“一两个人”就造成大停电,台电不觉得奇怪吗?安全单位应该介入调查,“避免匪谍渗透台湾,影响供电”。

许智杰说,有没有人故意造成台电停电乱象,要让民众对政府不信任,背后是不是有看不到的手在影响这些人,这些人的背景、通联纪录是否要详加彻查,安全单位应该介入。

台湾绿媒也跟进炒作,称停电是“安全问题”,是大陆“第五纵队”搞的阴谋。所谓“第五纵队(Fifth column)”,一般是指与敌方里应外合,在内部进行破坏的团体。
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
What you have listed are pretty much "penetration of enemy defense system" weapons/munitions(突防弹药). What Russian really lack is the low-cost/large-volume precision guided bombs/munitions that provides a sustained air-borne delivery of munitions/bombings/attacks firepower. This can only be sustainably and cost-effectively done by precision guided bombs that's often vaguely generalized as "PGM".
They are using guided missiles from choppers and rocket/Tube artilleries with satellite guidance supported by small UAVs It is the small UAV that is most difficult to deal. so far there is no evidence of single TB-2 crossing a Ukraine border. it is working in very limited range so very limited utility of medium height operations of drones.
The number of sorties generated and the crash/down rate of fighters/choppers in such compress time period from make shift bases is consistant with normal operations that most airforces can achieve in a year.
look at the amount of trucks parked behind chopper. this give idea of active airbase in operation.
If the sustained delivery of these can be done just by ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, there won't be a need for air force and thus no need for air superiority. Missiles are important to shock and awe and incapacitate important enemy nodes that is necessary for them to organize and put up an effective coordinated defense, but if you can't sustain the attack and delivery of airborne firepower upon these nodes and other nodes of enemy, they will quicky recover from the state of incapacity and resume coordinated defense and even conduct counter-offensives.

@Bltizo will be able to explain this to you in a much more clearly manner.
Sustained medium and high altitude may not be that effective when fight is close quarter around cities.. All the element of surprize gone since there alot of AWACS in the area. either low altitude or extreme speed of missiles is showing effectiveness. in cold weather hardly anyone can stay outside.
 
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