Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Century2030

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If China and Taiwan gets into a war, Asians (especially Chinese) living in the west will be treated far worse than what's happening to Russians now. As the US economy declines and living standards drop, the US govt will be looking to create conflicts elsewhere to distract the populace. And China is the biggest scapegoat after Russia. I hope it doesn't come to that but current geopolitical environment is becoming more turbulent..
 

Jingle Bells

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If China and Taiwan gets into a war, Asians (especially Chinese) living in the west will be treated far worse than what's happening to Russians now. I hope it doesn't come to that but current geopolitical environment is becoming more turbulent. As the US economy declines and living standards drop, the US govt will be looking to create conflicts elsewhere to distract the populace. And China is the biggest scapegoat after Russia..
Well, I think a large navy with many aircraft carriers will be very important tool to deter small countries as well as breakaway regions like Taiwan from poking at China. One of the biggest problems with Russia is that even though Russia has a big and powerful nuclear deterrence force, her lack of effective and powerful conventional forces is prompting the US to push forward small countries (like Ukraine and Georgia) to act as proxies of the US strategic interest. They are emboldened because they thought that together they are many and could cost Russia more resources to fend off.
 

Han Patriot

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Well, there is a lot of love from war, don't be that cynical!
It's just that, you have to understand human nature, and write a script that will result in invoking their love for you. That's why there is such thing as PUA (pick-up-artistry). In Chinese, it's ”你别吃力不讨好“.

In my somewhat cold and harsh (ruthless if you may) opinion, you must first completely destroy the confidence of a people, make them "shit their pants" and run for their lives and lost their sense of safety and order. And once they accepted the fact that they are screwed, you can then come in with just a little act of kindness and give them a little bit of treats, and they will get hooked on.

Without letting them first experience what hardship is, you will not win their love. You must bash them to the ground, dash their hopes and terrorize their hearts, before your small gesture of kindness will be received as something they desperately needs.

That probably sounded very draconian and evil.....
Yup, that's why we must offer them a migration route, divide their loyalties, there are bound to be people who are afraid of war and want to leave, when they leave, they demoralize the people staying back, sort of like herd mentality. I can assure you that if PRC offer them standardized modular housing in Xiamen, maybe in some abandoned village, they will rush to buy them. Do it a few month before the invasion, the current Russian invasion had been brewing for the past few months, so there is more than enough time.

How to buy their hearts? Offer the people who surrender citizenship shares in confiscated Taiwanese companies. Divide the wealth to the people. Use the old communist method of sharing wealth, I am sure there are many pissed off Taiwanese who hate their current wealth gap.
 

Han Patriot

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Just responding to the op and title primarily... I don't think China has much to worry about. Russian forces have shown a staggering amount of incompetence from everything I have read. They don't seem to have the ability to mass their firepower for a sustained period (air, land, sea or otherwise). While the US might have been misguided in attempting to occupy Iraq and Afghanistan, there were still able to pull off complex air operations and guided missile fires along with occupying countries half-way across the world for 20 years. Russia seems to be struggling to supply a military force on its boarder. Obviously Russia is more than a paper tiger, but if NATO was given time to build up its forces, I don't see how Russia could last any amount of time in a conventional conflict.

China on the other hand has real economic prowess. Just look at any number of national programs to see they can make real progress on developing breakthrough technology for themselves. I wouldn't want to wager on them being incompetent like the Russians.
We can judge Chinese organization skills during disasters. If you can mobilize equipment and personnel and food and logistics during a national disaster, you can do it during war time too. Of course i am talking about after securing the frontline for the logistics to come in. Russian Army does not do disaster reliefs as often as China.
 

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, there is a lot of love from war, don't be that cynical!
It's just that, you have to understand human nature, and write a script that will result in invoking their love for you. That's why there is such thing as PUA (pick-up-artistry). In Chinese, it's ”你别吃力不讨好“.

In my somewhat cold and harsh (ruthless if you may) opinion, you must first completely destroy the confidence of a people, make them "shit their pants" and run for their lives and lost their sense of safety and order. And once they accepted the fact that they are screwed, you can then come in with just a little act of kindness and give them a little bit of treats, and they will get hooked on.

Without letting them first experience what hardship is, you will not win their love. You must bash them to the ground, dash their hopes and terrorize their hearts, before your small gesture of kindness will be received as something they desperately needs.

That probably sounded very draconian and evil.....

Jesus you have a bright future as a kidnapper... not that I disagree with you, weaponized Stockholm syndrome is legit
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, there is a lot of love from war, don't be that cynical!
It's just that, you have to understand human nature, and write a script that will result in invoking their love for you. That's why there is such thing as PUA (pick-up-artistry). In Chinese, it's ”你别吃力不讨好“.

In my somewhat cold and harsh (ruthless if you may) opinion, you must first completely destroy the confidence of a people, make them "shit their pants" and run for their lives and lost their sense of safety and order. And once they accepted the fact that they are screwed, you can then come in with just a little act of kindness and give them a little bit of treats, and they will get hooked on.

Without letting them first experience what hardship is, you will not win their love. You must bash them to the ground, dash their hopes and terrorize their hearts, before your small gesture of kindness will be received as something they desperately needs.

That probably sounded very draconian and evil.....
I would call it practical. You treat people too nice from the onset, they think you owe it to them, and have no gratitude. You let them experience crap, but then give them little sweetener sometimes, and they will lick your boot. Rewards and punishment, its an art to the balance to get the desired result since people are all different. Nothing works better than fear to shatter someone, giving tangible hope at the end of it will gravitate them to you, because bs talks will work initially but go downhill fast when its not realized..
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
I would call it practical. You treat people too nice from the onset, they think you owe it to them, and have no gratitude. You let them experience crap, but then give them little sweetener sometimes, and they will lick your boot. Rewards and punishment, its an art to the balance to get the desired result since people are all different. Nothing works better than fear to shatter someone, giving tangible hope at the end of it will gravitate them to you, because bs talks will work initially but go downhill fast when its not realized..
Damn, is this why HK youth worship Anglos and Taiwanese worship Japanese?
 

Godzilla

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Damn, is this why HK youth worship Anglos and Taiwanese worship Japanese?
I dunno but it works. Its called 下马威 to put people in their place and respect the position of strength. The sugar coated stuff comes afterwards. Don't work long term so you gotta change tack after the initial phase.
I do this alot when I get called in to rescue a project. Got to establish authority in a short time with a bunch of strangers with established hierarchy. Just gotta shake them up and make sure they know their positions are at stake. Gotta bring in a few core team guys to determine status and reestablish org structure and end goal. Then you hit a few low hanging fruits so everyone gets the winning feeling again and head down that path. If you did it right, morale improves and results should show. Most of the workers will be happy but the original upper management guys that fked up and still remain in some positions will still hold resentment and be toxic, but you can't replace them all since its not realistic. Those guys' careers are dead also within the corporation.
Sometimes you don't get to finish it off and someone else replace you cause there is a fire somewhere else. Usually the momentum isn't carried and things go south or plot along, and then everyone misses you, even new people who never worked for you but heard from their colleagues.
Managing a country/city is gonna be different from managing a few thousand people, but I think the principal is the same and if you don't like the boss you can't just quit but you could migrate.

The anglos/Japs did the number in HK & Taiwan. They did steer the ship right and improved basic living standards etc. Wasn't hard considering how China was back then. The plebs wouldn't know any different as they can only see what's on hand. Takes a while for them to realise that they will remain plebs for life because the upper management team directing stuff will always remain foreigners. But you see the parallels in the current situation with the incompetent governance and reminiscing older times ?
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
I dunno but it works. Its called 下马威 to put people in their place and respect the position of strength. The sugar coated stuff comes afterwards. Don't work long term so you gotta change tack after the initial phase.
I do this alot when I get called in to rescue a project. Got to establish authority in a short time with a bunch of strangers with established hierarchy. Just gotta shake them up and make sure they know their positions are at stake. Gotta bring in a few core team guys to determine status and reestablish org structure and end goal. Then you hit a few low hanging fruits so everyone gets the winning feeling again and head down that path. If you did it right, morale improves and results should show. Most of the workers will be happy but the original upper management guys that fked up and still remain in some positions will still hold resentment and be toxic, but you can't replace them all since its not realistic. Those guys' careers are dead also within the corporation.
Sometimes you don't get to finish it off and someone else replace you cause there is a fire somewhere else. Usually the momentum isn't carried and things go south or plot along, and then everyone misses you, even new people who never worked for you but heard from their colleagues.
Managing a country/city is gonna be different from managing a few thousand people, but I think the principal is the same and if you don't like the boss you can't just quit but you could migrate.

The anglos/Japs did the number in HK & Taiwan. They did steer the ship right and improved basic living standards etc. Wasn't hard considering how China was back then. The plebs wouldn't know any different as they can only see what's on hand. Takes a while for them to realise that they will remain plebs for life because the upper management team directing stuff will always remain foreigners. But you see the parallels in the current situation with the incompetent governance and reminiscing older times ?
I'm concerned about Taiwan's younger generation. From what I've seen at my university, they make HK kids look patriotic.

In the mainland WW2 is known as 'the war of resistance against Japanese aggression'. Taiwanese youth instead refer to it as 'the war of liberation of the Chinese race', justifying such language with the logic that as natural slaves of the Japanese, Chinese people cannot be truly happy under self-rule. Atrocities such as the Nanjing Massacre and Kill All, Burn All, Loot All policy are portrayed in the light of Japan as the knowledgeable parent punishing China the wayward child. At least Japan denies moral culpability - Taiwanese youth openly celebrate the death of 20 million Chinese during WW2. In fact, their love for Japan can only be matched by their hatred of China. I've overheard more conversations than I can count where these kids fantasize about teaming up with the Japanese military to invade China and, I quote, 'kill and rape as many mainlanders as possible'. They're also all utterly obsessed with anime.
 

Michaelsinodef

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Registered Member
I'm concerned about Taiwan's younger generation. From what I've seen at my university, they make HK kids look patriotic.

In the mainland WW2 is known as 'the war of resistance against Japanese aggression'. Taiwanese youth instead refer to it as 'the war of liberation of the Chinese race', justifying such language with the logic that as natural slaves of the Japanese, Chinese people cannot be truly happy under self-rule. Atrocities such as the Nanjing Massacre and Kill All, Burn All, Loot All policy are portrayed in the light of Japan as the knowledgeable parent punishing China the wayward child. At least Japan denies moral culpability - Taiwanese youth openly celebrate the death of 20 million Chinese during WW2. In fact, their love for Japan can only be matched by their hatred of China. I've overheard more conversations than I can count where these kids fantasize about teaming up with the Japanese military to invade China and, I quote, 'kill and rape as many mainlanders as possible'. They're also all utterly obsessed with anime.
They're spineless though and wouldn't be able to put up any actual resistance in an insurgency (the big majority of course, the smaller minority putting up resistance will get crushed).

More likely, they will try to migrate, which is great!
 
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