Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Squidward said:

With regards to the PR issue that will undoubtedly arise from armed reunification, lifting the great firewall could be a great power move imo. Flood the information space with 1.4 billion netizens to at least attempt to control the wider narrative. Whereas right now many voices from within China are often dismissed as shills, bots, brainwashed based on the belief that no honest Chinese citizen would ever be able to access western social media, such a move would invalidate this kind of knee-jerk response and force more western internet users to contend with the idea that the supposed "enemy narrative" has more substance behind it than just bots and shills.

Of course it's more than likely that said Chinese netizens would be banned/blocked from those platforms within days, and judging from the general attitude online towards the indiscriminate banning of anything remotely Russian (cats? composers?), the general populace would be more than ok with a similar, if not more severe media pogrom against Chinese netizens. So while I wouldn't count on the west being able to confront its own hypocrisy on such a move, it would still serve as great PR material for the CPC. Something along the lines of "see? The so called "free and democratic" west is censoring all of you for challenging their narrative, not us" or "they silence you because they fear what you have to say" would go a long way in maintaining/increasing popular support in a time when some Chinese may be taken aback by what some would percieve as excessive military force.

Unless I'm missing something, a move like this would be a win-win for the CPC. If there isn't much resistance to the influx of Chinese netizens, the CPC can effectively contest the predominant narrative and atrocity propaganda that will arise in the west from armed reunification. And in the much more likely event that Chinese netizens are met with hostility, silencing, or both, would rally the population in support of the CPC anyway.

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KYli said:

I just want to say that before the invasion of Iraq, majority of Americans are opposed to the war. After one month of propaganda, over 70% of Americans support the war. Winning hearts and minds of the Westerners are just a joke. Given how much propaganda, hate, prejudice and distortions that they have fed to average westerners against China, no amount of counter-propaganda would make a difference. The west is a lost cause for China. The sooner people realize that the sooner people wouldn't waste their precious resources and times to convince these people otherwise. Just remember that you can't wake a person pretending to be asleep.

It is not to say China shouldn't fight propaganda but the focus should be in Asia, middle east, Russia, African, Latin American etc. China should promote its own ecosystem in these places and win hearts and minds of these people.

Beside, if you still think the West would allow any China's counter-propaganda in their platforms in time of crisis, then you should just look at how they deal with Russia. The West sets the rules. But the rules only applied when rules benefit them. If not, they would just change the rules. Ukraine conflict has taught us rules don't matter because the West defines and interpret them.

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KYli said:

I just want to say that before the invasion of Iraq, majority of Americans are opposed to the war. After one month of propaganda, over 70% of Americans support the war. Winning hearts and minds of the Westerners are just a joke. Given how much propaganda, hate, prejudice and distortions that they have fed to average westerners against China, no amount of counter-propaganda would make a difference. The west is a lost cause for China. The sooner people realize that the sooner people wouldn't waste their precious resources and times to convince these people otherwise. Just remember that you can't wake a person pretending to be asleep.

It is not to say China shouldn't fight propaganda but the focus should be in Asia, middle east, Russia, African, Latin American etc. China should promote its own ecosystem in these places and win hearts and minds of these people.

Beside, if you still think the West would allow any China's counter-propaganda in their platforms in time of crisis, then you should just look at how they deal with Russia. The West sets the rules. But the rules only applied when rules benefit them. If not, they would just change the rules. Ukraine conflict has taught us rules don't matter because the West defines and interpret them.

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Jingle Bells said:

Russia-Ukraine conflict has shattered the dreams of PLA to have a fast and clean war with minimal collateral damage, and things will get ugly and bad. And this current atmosphere of triumphalism in Taiwan is NOT helping, it's actually pushing the war to happen.

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FriedButter said:

I don’t see how this is remotely comparable when Ukraine is ~16.5x times larger than Taiwan. Not to mention, foreign relief efforts is far easier when it’s a land border compared to an island surrounded by water. Whenever if it’s fast or clean is anyone guess but why are you assuming they won’t destroy critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia didn’t establish air superiority, their drones were non-existent, air support was lacking, limited stockpile of PGMs, etc.

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plawolf said:

The western world of today is not the same as of WWII. Almost everything they make is replaceable or unnecessary to start with. Starbucks, McDonalds, Netflix, Coca Cola, I don’t have them in my life as it is, so I honestly won’t even notice if they are gone

OTOH, trying to go without made in China goods is next to impossible without a fundamental and drastic reduction in the quality of life people have become used to the world over.

That is the fundamental, undeniable truth that makes western sanctions toothless and ineffective against China. Because much like sanctions on Russia today, it’s the west that foots most of the costs of the sanctions and bears the pain.

Sanctions were always a given, but ironically Trump helped out massively by prematurely and half heartily firing most of America’s economic arsenal, which it spent decades building up, already.

Strategically, I think the biggest lessons China should take from this Russia experience is that you should not fight unless you are fully committed to it, and once you do decide to pull the trigger, you must hold nothing back and strike with all your might until the other side surrenders or is utterly destroyed.

That means Shock and Awe 2.0 with unrelenting fury and no mercy. Instructions will be sent for ROC units to show surrender, anything short and any slight deviation means destruction.

This also extends to civilian infrastructure. No need to go overboard, but power needs to go down from the first wave of missiles slamming home and stay down throughout the war.

That should also, to a large degree sort out the information warfare front since without any frontline footage, it’s just a bunch of talking heads sprouting nonsense.

China should also enforce an absolute no fly and no sail zone around Taiwan. Anything that enters gets overkilled with zero warning or mercy. No rescue efforts to look for survivors will be made or permitted.

Just look at the Uighur genocide make believe bullshit and you will know China will be accused and found guilty of every crime under the sun and new ones they will make up especially.

So zero considerations should be given to PR when conducting military operations. The PLA should fight the war in whatever way is needed to minimise PLA losses without wilfully causing unnecessary civilian damage.

But if ROC wants to use its own citizens as human shields, the PLA should give zero consideration. That sounds brutal and heartless, but should actually reduce civilian casualties much like how America’s ‘we don’t negotiate with terrorists’ policy works. If the ROC realises taking human shields confers zero benefits, then there is no reason for them to continue to take human shields.

Similarly, humanitarian corridors should be opened to let civilians out, but the PLA should make it clear that once the deadline lapses, all who remain will be considered combatants and zero quarter given. The goal is to use ROC’s own propaganda against them because they have been determined to brainwash their citizens into think of Chinese as heartless barbarians, so let’s use that to scare them into giving up.

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Jingle Bells said:

You're not exactly providing an idea different from mine.

My opinion particularly meant that PLA will go very heavy handed and destroy important infrastructure---disabling the island's ability to sustain itself in a total-war manner, as well as go absolutely berserk on the military infrastructure and assets on the island.

What I meant, was that it WON'T be a limited-strike-on-vital-military-nodes, followed by a quick air assault and amphibious assault to penetrate and occupy strategic positions to disable the Taiwan military before it can put up a fight.

In my opinion, the PLA will go for an actual annihilation of the war-fighting capabilities of Taiwan (aka. 消灭有生力量), as well as the vital infrastructure upon which the separatists can organize and restructure into a state of total war (全面战争）.

That's just my opinion.

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Han Patriot said:

I agree, this Ukrainian crisis thought us something, in war, there is no love. Just because we are the same race, doesn't mean we should be soft. Taiwanese won't appreciate our kindness, they might take it as weakness. War must be total, bomb most critical infra to ashes except high tech ones. Before the war starts announce a migration program, tell them due to the current situation all Taiwanese compatriots are advised to migrate to the mainland for safety reasons. Create mass produced housing for them to buy on the dime. Let them transfer their money into banks in HK. Essentially give them an escape option, whoever is left we must annihilate, use our own Moab. Taiwan must be retaken by all means. Before the war even starts, their economy would have been destroyed by capital flight and panic, do a concurrent blockade too

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