Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

ecaedus said:

i think relocation by force of an indigenous people away from their homes is an act of genocide...makes what's happening in Xinjiang child's play...on the other hand, since CCP will probably get the Russian sanction special combo Pro Max Plus, they probably wouldn't care about more western condemnations.

imo the best way to keep the "peace" after the invasion is to add more riot police.

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Short term pain for long term gain. They can always spin it as a temporary humanitarian measure for refugees due to logistics constraints, given they will be free to move around the country and housed/fed etc and be able to return once the war is over.
If the campaign is prolonged, it can be perfectly justified as food/fuel/power/water shortages will be magnified and I don't think anyone in the mainland want to see any kind of suffering to their brethren's.
The West is always going to over play their hand and by that stage there is nothing else more to add.
If the campaign is short then I don't think any of these is needed as people would just try to get on with their lives, and a few extra PAP would keep the peace

lcloo said:

Information war.

I watched RT.com live news yesterday, (RT.com news is accessible here) and watched a talk show from several critics based in USA. It is interesting because theirs view are in big contrast to what we see in twitter/FB/Forums, and many points are rational and sensible.

My point is information war on Russian-Ukraine war is a point China should take very seriously, seeing how Russian is being isolated in information and consequently the economic fronts. If you don't fight the huge monster-like western media, your may lost many international support.

And the emotionally inspired support of many countries in supply of weapons and votings in UN works against Russia whose information accessibility has been denied because of the global control by western media. So intead of defending against such information assault, China must be on offensive in information propagation.

No doubt China has made progress in TV media like CGTN and Phoenix TV, more should be done on countering Youtube/Twitter/Instagram and based them outside US and their core allies. Weibo could launch an international version based in Hongkong, Tiktok should have another international version also preferably based in HK while the current USA based Tiktok should down graded to just "Tiktok USA". In Chinese this is call 未雨绸缪wèiyǔ-chóumóu, meaning be prepared in anticipation of certain future adverse event.

Pen is more powerful than bullets, and can cause more damages without firing a shot.

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You might as well wishing Chinese men's soccer team winning the world cup.

ecaedus said:

i think relocation by force of an indigenous people away from their homes is an act of genocide...makes what's happening in Xinjiang child's play...on the other hand, since CCP will probably get the Russian sanction special combo Pro Max Plus, they probably wouldn't care about more western condemnations.

imo the best way to keep the "peace" after the invasion is to add more riot police.

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Well....
Let's say that since this Russo-Ukraine conflict, these "underdogs" are massively encouraged, and the overdog (China) become a lot more cautious and much toned-down triumphalism. What do you think will happen? The war will still happen, if secession seem eminent. But this war will be a messy and ugly one.

In my opinion, when the unification war must start, the PLA will overkill instead of underkill, in order to prevent a dragged out conflict of attrition. And to be honest. I think there will be a lot of collateral damage. If such collateral damage extends to vital civilian infrastructure that was needed previously to sustain the livelihood of the overcrowded 23 million people there, then humanitarian efforts will have to be taken to relocate people from the island in order to solve potential problems.

Such problems may include:
1. Lack of fresh water
2. Lack of electricity
3. Lack of food
4. Lack of sewage capacity and waste treatment capacity.

Believe me, once life style goes dramatically south, the people will voluntarily leave the island.

lcloo said:

WE should study and understand why a numerically inferior and resouce poor PLA could win the Chinese civil war. In 1947, PLA was a much smaller force than KMT, they won the heart and mind of the people, expanded their forces to be numerically superior to KMT and logistically supported by the common people.

And most important they are volunteer forces both the army and the people's support. These are the key factors why the conscribed KMT forces were beaten so badly. Another important factor is that KMT lost support of the people.

A people's army shall have support of the people. A time tested doctrine of PLA. It shall be no difference in Taiwan campaign. Ultimately the people makes the difference. Never underestimate the war on winning the heart and mind of the people.

I know many members would prefer brute force rather than employing both hard and soft power of PLA. Feel free to disagree. Not going to argue more.

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All good points regarding how the excellent PR job by CPC helped it win the civil war in mainland. It was because CPC was fighting with ideology. That ideology inspired the grassroots who sent CPC and PLA from one victory to another.

It becomes ironic when the topic moves onto Taiwan. The DPP so far is actually the party of the grassroots in Taiwan. To compete with DPP in winning the hearts and minds of the average Taiwan people, it's not enough for CPC to just sing the "we are family" song. CPC will have to learn from its own history and pick up the "weapon of class war".

I don't see this happening. CPC cannot use class war on Taiwan without addressing the social issues that it let out in mainland. CPC still has to fly the flag of "market economy with the Chinese characteristics" and allow capitalists to squeeze workers hard for profit. Even as CPC starts checking on the capitalists, the average people on the island still don't think it's relevant to them.

But CPC can afford the luxury of patience.

In addition to the buildup of military strength for contingency, I see three prongs of CPC's current strategy on Taiwan. The first is to siphon the industrial strength, in particular the talents, from Taiwan. This is the most controversial part because it often gives Taiwan favorable term in dealings. The second is to slowly add pressure on the secessionists and wait for them to make forced errors. Knowing its PR disadvantage, CPC will not use force unprovoked. The last is to wait for DPP to decay and lose touch with its base.

gelgoog said:

The US economy is in shambles. All you need to do is visit the US to figure that out. They are in a similar state to back in the Great Depression. They spent themselves into a hole with the wars in the Middle East. Then you had the 2008 Financial Crisis and now COVID-19 to finish the rest. They still have deep reserves of course but the US will have to pull back for half a decade if not a decade to lick its wounds and recover. It will feast on Europe's corpse to do it if it needs to and it is. They are pulling out all stops on Russia and trying to knock them down because they have little chance against China if Russia isn't either on their side or at best neutral. Russia was the easiest of the two to knock out.

Also do not believe the nonsense you sometimes hear about how democracies do not go to war against each other. France, the UK, and Germany were all democracies back in WWI. The war still happened. You hear a lot of claims that Germany was not a democracy but it really is not true. Germany had a parliamentary monarchy just like the UK. It is just the nature of empires not to get along with each other.
The largest period of relative peace in Europe was the "Concert of Europe" when the major empires defined spheres of influence and kept to these. WWI started because of a conflict between the Austrians and Russians about who should have control over Serbia and it spiraled as the rest piled on.

If you read Mein Kampf the Nazis were not interested in good long term relationships with the Soviets because they knew with the population and resources they had available, if they also got the technological base, then the Soviets would be basically unstoppable. You can bet the US thinks much the same about China right now. It is just the nature of empire.

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Tbh I don't think this benefits usa and could he argued that if is a massive blunder. Kissinger and brezinksy and co would certainly think so. Pushing Russia into Chinas orbit completely basically means china is unstoppable even if they also do the same to china that they did to Russia.

Also India. They basically forced India to reveal to the world that it's untrustworthy (again) and is not in the "democratic country" camp. Usa already knew this but anyone who had any doubts knows differently now. If anything India is more likely to join the china/Russia camp now. I mean it was Russia who has always helped and armed India. India isn't going to go against Russia and china now even more. If china was isolated, maybe India might take some chances but not now. Geography is everything, no one is going to protect or help India agaisnt Russia and china if India goes against them.

Indians also can see how whites treated them in Ukraine and how they will treat India no matter they are democracy or whatnot. Always second class citizen, or even third if china's second. The way India plays it, no one respects or trusts them. They need to pick a side since everyone else has already. Imo there's only one choice India can make unless they are morons. That is china and Russia, but they want to get as much leverage as possible since they are very much the junior partner no matter which side they pick. But at least china and Russia will treat them as humans, and china and Russia will always be around due to geography.

As for Europe, I don't see Europe siding with usa like how Russia will side with china. Eu has choices(like china) Russia doesn't. They just ruined themselves and if anything china has won the most from this.

Should probably also mention Germany and their new spending. Like 100 billion per year for the next two years iirc. This was the perfect excuse fir German politicians to use to ramp yo military spending, and imo this only weakens usas position in EU and nato since eu doesn't have to rely as much on usa anymore. France has always wanted eu army to be stronger. At the end of the day, I don't believe Germany and France or eu buy into the "Russian threat" that Russia wants to expand into Berlin or something like usa pretends with it's propaganda that it uses to justify nato expansion. They are all doing it for their own purposes. They know they can't cross usa still and will play along for now since they can use it. But when push comes to shove, they(eu) isn't going to abandon china or decouple, and at the end of the day they still need Russian energy and will probably resume imports as soon as politically feasible. Even 2-3 years later, doesn't matter, it will happen. Might be sooner, once everyones oil prices double.

As for EU as a whole, it's divided. Germany needs china and isn't going to dump all it's investments and china market just for USA. China is Germany's ticket back to relevance and out of usa vassal state position. Same for France and eu in general if they can play their cards right, but eu is divided like I said, they all have their own interests and they don't have a united china strategy or even USA strategy, which is why usa can play them at will like they have been for so long.

We will see though if Germany buys f35 or what they will do with that 100 billion and increased spending. If they buy f35 then yeah, they will accept usa vassal status for awhile longer.

Eu should know by now that usa is the true orchestrator of this chaos in eu. Usa is responsible for Germany not being able to buy Russian oil, and chaos on its doorstep in eu. Raising tensions etc. If I was Germany I wouldn't be happy at all, this is not what they needed or wanted. Usa forced their hand basically to waste money on arms and setting back their economy and energy investments.

So USA basically made eu weaker in that sense and also eu more tense and now usa also needs to worry more about eu, it has less room for pivot to Asia, let alone an Asia that has china combined in solid relations with Russia now. Not to mention middle east etc. Usa just made the whole world less safe and has to spread itself thin as fuck, while paying premium for oil now and having to beg Venezuela and Iran etc. It fucked itself and like I said, china is the only real winner here, everyone else is a loser making the best of a bad situation. Everyone lost something and had to do things they didn't want to. Not china though. Im trying hard to see what china loses out in but I can't think of anything lol.

The west has played the economic warfare card, which would mean its usefulness will be diminished the next time around. China should be taking notes on what kind of sanctions the west are willing to impose and what countermeasures Russians come up with that work.

One thing that strikes me is how many problems the withdrawal of Mastercard / Visa is causing for Russia. Whereas it would not be an issue for China because they have a domestically controlled alternative system.

It would be wise for China to spend the coming years patching up other foreign dependencies as much as possible. Other countries like India, Pakistan, UAE and Saudi should do the same as well if they are smart.

The western world of today is not the same as of WWII. Almost everything they make is replaceable or unnecessary to start with. Starbucks, McDonalds, Netflix, Coca Cola, I don’t have them in my life as it is, so I honestly won’t even notice if they are gone

OTOH, trying to go without made in China goods is next to impossible without a fundamental and drastic reduction in the quality of life people have become used to the world over.

That is the fundamental, undeniable truth that makes western sanctions toothless and ineffective against China. Because much like sanctions on Russia today, it’s the west that foots most of the costs of the sanctions and bears the pain.

Sanctions were always a given, but ironically Trump helped out massively by prematurely and half heartily firing most of America’s economic arsenal, which it spent decades building up, already.

Strategically, I think the biggest lessons China should take from this Russia experience is that you should not fight unless you are fully committed to it, and once you do decide to pull the trigger, you must hold nothing back and strike with all your might until the other side surrenders or is utterly destroyed.

That means Shock and Awe 2.0 with unrelenting fury and no mercy. Instructions will be sent for ROC units to show surrender, anything short and any slight deviation means destruction.

This also extends to civilian infrastructure. No need to go overboard, but power needs to go down from the first wave of missiles slamming home and stay down throughout the war.

That should also, to a large degree sort out the information warfare front since without any frontline footage, it’s just a bunch of talking heads sprouting nonsense.

China should also enforce an absolute no fly and no sail zone around Taiwan. Anything that enters gets overkilled with zero warning or mercy. No rescue efforts to look for survivors will be made or permitted.

Just look at the Uighur genocide make believe bullshit and you will know China will be accused and found guilty of every crime under the sun and new ones they will make up especially.

So zero considerations should be given to PR when conducting military operations. The PLA should fight the war in whatever way is needed to minimise PLA losses without wilfully causing unnecessary civilian damage.

But if ROC wants to use its own citizens as human shields, the PLA should give zero consideration. That sounds brutal and heartless, but should actually reduce civilian casualties much like how America’s ‘we don’t negotiate with terrorists’ policy works. If the ROC realises taking human shields confers zero benefits, then there is no reason for them to continue to take human shields.

Similarly, humanitarian corridors should be opened to let civilians out, but the PLA should make it clear that once the deadline lapses, all who remain will be considered combatants and zero quarter given. The goal is to use ROC’s own propaganda against them because they have been determined to brainwash their citizens into think of Chinese as heartless barbarians, so let’s use that to scare them into giving up.

plawolf said:

So zero considerations should be given to PR when conducting military operations. The PLA should fight the war in whatever way is needed to minimise PLA losses without wilfully causing unnecessary civilian damage.

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I think I know what you mean as in china should not allow outside PR to affect its military strategy, but china itself definitely has to care about PR itself. It should be doing propaganda and counter propaganda against usa and Taiwan and anyone else that matters. Even if it doesn't affect PLA strategy or tactics, it will definitely affect what sanctions or view people in the world have of china and it's military actions. PR will allow china to do it's military strategy and flatten everything with minimal sanctions, and if they do it right they won't get any like usa or west does when they bomb Iraq.

Just do false flag attack(empty building, claim thousand casualties) before any offensive, even claim WMD also for cherry on top, say Chinese Intel has received iron clad Intel, give zero evidence like usa has done. What can they say or do? Same as proof for false flag attack, it's china, they can hide everything, no one has to seriously believe it, it's just to pre empt usa and make them do propaganda which ruins their credibility (and wests) even more than it will china. Then while flattening Taiwan, do propaganda saying Taiwan is doing human shield tactics nonstop. This will actually be true since like others have posted pics showing them disguising military vehicles as civilian crane trucks and other stuff.

Same as leaflets and safe zones. Blame Taiwan 100% nonstop. Again if usa or west criticizes leaflets, they are criticizing usa and Israel and their own lack of sanctions on Israel.

If they sanction china and china hurts, they hurt just as much or even more. This will basically break down all current world order if they do that. A world order which they dominate in terms of media. Let them do the work for you in denouncing themselves through their own hypocrisy which no one can ignore.

This would be based as fuck and imo it would also be the best strategy if china ever does attack.. which of course we all hope to avoid and only as last option, but like you said if china does attack it cannot hold back at all. Shock and awe 2.. again if usa criticizes, they are just denouncing themselves..

This has basically been chinas strategy also. Learning from usa and doing tit for tat, but china has only been responding and not pre empting. That needs to change imo. I know china doesn't want to "meddle" and do propaganda to hurt other "sovereign" countries. But when that sovereign country is attacking you nonstop, pre empting is justifiable defense and doesn't cross that line anymore since they crossed it long ago.

Ex0 said:

I think I know what you mean as in china should not allow outside PR to affect its military strategy, but china itself definitely has to care about PR itself. It should be doing propaganda and counter propaganda against usa and Taiwan and anyone else that matters. Even if it doesn't affect PLA strategy or tactics, it will definitely affect what sanctions or view people in the world have of china and it's military actions. PR will allow china to do it's military strategy and flatten everything with minimal sanctions, and if they do it right they won't get any like usa or west does when they bomb Iraq.

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With regards to the PR issue that will undoubtedly arise from armed reunification, lifting the great firewall could be a great power move imo. Flood the information space with 1.4 billion netizens to at least attempt to control the wider narrative. Whereas right now many voices from within China are often dismissed as shills, bots, brainwashed based on the belief that no honest Chinese citizen would ever be able to access western social media, such a move would invalidate this kind of knee-jerk response and force more western internet users to contend with the idea that the supposed "enemy narrative" has more substance behind it than just bots and shills.

Of course it's more than likely that said Chinese netizens would be banned/blocked from those platforms within days, and judging from the general attitude online towards the indiscriminate banning of anything remotely Russian (cats? composers?), the general populace would be more than ok with a similar, if not more severe media pogrom against Chinese netizens. So while I wouldn't count on the west being able to confront its own hypocrisy on such a move, it would still serve as great PR material for the CPC. Something along the lines of "see? The so called "free and democratic" west is censoring all of you for challenging their narrative, not us" or "they silence you because they fear what you have to say" would go a long way in maintaining/increasing popular support in a time when some Chinese may be taken aback by what some would percieve as excessive military force.

Unless I'm missing something, a move like this would be a win-win for the CPC. If there isn't much resistance to the influx of Chinese netizens, the CPC can effectively contest the predominant narrative and atrocity propaganda that will arise in the west from armed reunification. And in the much more likely event that Chinese netizens are met with hostility, silencing, or both, would rally the population in support of the CPC anyway.