Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
+1 for mentioning Ladakh.
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(vs 35k for India) and increase to 60k and then
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with almost no casualties.

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It was so bad that
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You can see who had the logistical upper hand.
I don't know why that person is very assumptive about PLA's perceived lack of logistics know-how along with a very bad impression on the PLA'S supposed antiquated, guerrilla style warfare doctrine when even according to the now retired Singapore General officer and politician, George Yeo, made a point to mention the Ladakh border clash between China and India where China made quite a very strong impression in which it was able to field about 100 or so tanks into one of the most difficult and challenging in the world was quite a feat. That showing made the Indian paused and realized that the PLA will not be in a position of deficit if the conflict became deadly.

 

getready

Senior Member
IMO the lesson is that a serious military option is off the table for Taiwan. Sometimes the truth is hard to accept. Ukraine had 8 years to prepare for war with Russia and it did a very good job. Taiwan has had 25+ years to prepare if we count starting from the time the idea Taiwan independence started to gain traction and China responded with the 1st Taiwan strait crisis.

The entire developed world (and most of the rest)would unite against China and completely cut off China, sending its economy into a tailspin. And that's the best case scenario. It's possible that NATO would intervene directly because they are far more Sinophobic than Russophobic, plus they are less scared of China's 200+ nukes than Russia's thousands of them. And then it would be WWIII.

Since the one child era many Chinese parents have only had one son, so if he died in combat their entire lives would be destroyed.

Really, that is the only lesson worth taking from this.
I am sorry but This is honestly a very bad take. Like you have shut yourself in a bunker and ignored everything PRC has said or done. Maybe you are from Taiwan and just prefer to live in an alternate reality but there is every indication that reunification is a must for China, by peaceful means or non peaceful ones, with the aim of, as Xi stated explicitly, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
 

A_Chinese_Man

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
Notice the weasel words: "pause". Westerners will make a story out of any minute grain of truth. Yes, China has 'pause' because of sanctions, but so did US have 'pause' at the audacity of Putin going nuclear WW3 over Ukraine. We Chinese needs atleast 1,000 nuke arsenal to give Westerners 'pause' over Taiwan. Let me write a legitimate article headline: "Russia's willingness to escalate to nuclear over Ukraine crisis should give Western nations pause over Taiwan." They should make me a SCMP headline writer, I just graduated looking for a jerb.

Correction.

We need at least 10,000 nukes !!
 

getready

Senior Member
in my mind there's only so much the PLA can do when it comes to minimizing civilian casualties. It all depends on how willing the taiwanese are to fight the PLA down to the last man. obviously PLA isn't incentivized to raze entire cities to the ground with occupants still inside who are not willing to fight. but i'm sure they have no problem shooting back at those who take up arms, civilians or not.

PLA's actions towards civilians are mainly going to be reactive rather than proactive. meaning all they can do is send out leaflets before entering the city, telling the civies not to take up arms against them. launch massive media and psych warfare hoping to convince as many as possible to surrender.

when it comes to foreign nationals, i would assume PLA would block out an area just for them to get airlifted or shipped out of tw after they've taken complete control of the island.

the real problem would be when die hard rebels/KMT soldiers alike, mingle into residential buildings and hole up in there to target PLA convoy or personnel with ATGM/MANPADS/RPG, while keeping the civies inside that same building at all times as human meat shields. the PLA would either need to shell the buildings and take out rebels and civies all together (huge backlash for future occupation), or conduct CQC and clear the buildings one at a time while suffering losses and getting halted to a grind. both of which are terrible options when your objective is to invade and capture the island as quickly as possible.
DPP supporting/anti mainland rebels maybe. However I find it hard to believe die hard KMT soldiers will fight for the DPP regime till the last man. Remember old school KMT are from mainland not that long ago compared to Ben Sheng Ren. They have roots there. Chiang kai shek might hate communists but he ain't no traitor. He detests taiwan independence and longed for China reunification albeit under KMT rule. In a most likely scenario when mainland invades the island, it means DPP has opted suicide option of formal independence or red line crossed close leading to it. My feeling is hardcore KMT soldiers rather surrender. I mean prc have promised Taiwan can keep their armed forces if they return to motherland.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't know why that person is very assumptive about PLA's perceived lack of logistics know-how along with a very bad impression on the PLA'S supposed antiquated, guerrilla style warfare doctrine when even according to the now retired Singapore General officer and politician, George Yeo, made a point to mention the Ladakh border clash between China and India where China made quite a very strong impression in which it was able to field about 100 or so tanks into one of the most difficult and challenging in the world was quite a feat. That showing made the Indian paused and realized that the PLA will not be in a position of deficit if the conflict became deadly.

Specific comment about PLA logistical feat starts at 43:20 of the video. The military AAR that George Yeo read especially indicates that China can withdraw 200 tanks in 1 week and they can just easily place 200 tanks if the situation arise..
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
IMO the lesson is that a serious military option is off the table for Taiwan. Sometimes the truth is hard to accept. Ukraine had 8 years to prepare for war with Russia and it did a very good job. Taiwan has had 25+ years to prepare if we count starting from the time the idea Taiwan independence started to gain traction and China responded with the 1st Taiwan strait crisis.

The entire developed world (and most of the rest)would unite against China and completely cut off China, sending its economy into a tailspin. And that's the best case scenario. It's possible that NATO would intervene directly because they are far more Sinophobic than Russophobic, plus they are less scared of China's 200+ nukes than Russia's thousands of them. And then it would be WWIII.

Since the one child era many Chinese parents have only had one son, so if he died in combat their entire lives would be destroyed.

Really, that is the only lesson worth taking from this.
You are seriously underestimating how ugly a war for Taiwan will be. Is going to be a kinetic destruction no seen since WW2. Also anyone who thinks that the Chinese only had 200 nukes i have a bridge to sell.
What makes the situation even worse in Taiwan is that different from Ukraine that can go to other countries, in Taiwan is more difficult.
The entire developed world is going to be depending who started the war, if it was a unprovoked attack or a violation of the status quo.
 

Ex0

New Member
Registered Member
Disclaimer: not well structured, long ass rant. Points may be repeated. You've been warned. I also apologise to tphuang, since he will probably say I'm off topic and I am, but its not intentional and I cbf writing well structured essay and I'm more used to stream of consciousness type verbal/textual diarrhea. So please forgive me for this long ass all over the place and potentially "offtopic" rant.. :p~

Ok. let's go.


Russia and Ukraine agreed to allow "civilian corridor" after negotiations. Seems like Russia has been taking my advice about safe zone.. hehe. Im curious though, why would Ukraine do this? Isn't it bad for them since no more human shields and makes things easier for Russia? Unless of course Ukrainians are actually really hurting by now, and all cities power, water, heating and food supplies are all cut off and they are basically gonna starve to death or surrender soon anyway so they have no choice? If Ukraine doesn't allow it then it's like they are using human shields, or they are literally condemning their own citizens to death, which is just as bad, if not worse PR than using human shields.

This is exactly what Russia should have offered from the start for every city as soon as they entered Ukraine proper.. Leave now by X date, otherwise anyone remaining will be considered hostile. Because before that I tbinn many Ukrainians were on the fence and even thinking Russians were not gonna do anything to them. I've seen videos of civilians even protesting and shouting shit at Russian soldiers, telling them to get out and go home etc.

At the start Russia should have told them that Russia will be looking to avoid as many property damage as possible, and also civilian casualties on both sides. Russia needs to make all civilian casualties and all property damage on Ukraine. This is exactly what I advised for china to do, and also what Russia should have done (in hindsight).

I really don't know why Russia isn't hammering Ukraine everyday on every channel that Ukraine is HANDING OUT GUNS TO CIVILIANS, and EVEN RELEASED CRIMINALS and gave them weapons. I mean wtf? That is ridiculous. Criminals will be robbing and stealing and raping even Ukrainians, I mean they are criminals and in jail for crimes against Ukrainians, no? Handing out guns to every civilian and criminal basically amounts to human shields, and if targeting residential buildings or areas is a war crime, then surely giving guns and war weapon's to fight ad enemy combatants is also a war crime? Anyone know about this? Russia said that any foreigners coming to fight is also illegal under international law or something, and they don't have any human rights protections like Geneva conventions or POW rules or whatever. That should also be the same for armed "civilian" enemy combatants?

That is exactly what I suggested in my previous posts that china do for Taiwan even before the war starts, like
during the blockade and posturing/positioning phases(ie china surrounding by sea, having total air surveillance, and moving all assets into position for ability to flatten everything at once if necessary).

Once the date set is passed, then china will flatten and take everything methodically, and any civilian casualties will be all on Taiwan.. and china should be pre emting the response and broadcasting to the world that "Chinese intelligence" revealed that Taiwan plans to use human shields and give weapons to civilians, in order to raise the civilian casualties to the maximum so they can blame china. Even say that Taiwan is planning on doing multiple false flag attacks on residential areas to blame on china.. This will limit taiwans options before they can even do it, and give china an out even if china bombs and kills civilians by accident..

that is what I have learned from usa(who's an active participant in this war, and using Ukraine as proxy to fight and hurt Russia) in this Russia/Ukraine conflict. Just like usa kept saying Russia will invade before they did, Russia will do false flag to justify invasion before they did, Russia will do deepfake of zelensky surrendering to lower morale before they did(or will) etc etc. Controlling the narrative and pre empting is a very very powerful tool in this information day and age of global networks with real time mass global dissemination. I guess that's why usa and west took off all the gloves and don't even care about freedom of speech or press anymore, and just banned RT from every country already basically. Soon it will be banned from YT too I'm guessing. We will see. China needs to be ready for this. China needs to open up their domestic social media for international audience. Not just allow Chinese with passport or photo id to use it. I mean foreigners coming onto Chinese servers only helps china disseminate and control the information. You don't want the world to be using and relying on usas social media, but china's. That's another massive thing china needs to change and fix, pronto. China has 1.4 billion highly intelligent and United people. China should make the most of such power/numbers and send them out into the western/international internet to mingle with wider internet and to tell chinas side of the story. Again would go really far to counter usas narratives and control. Right now it's only like a few of us overseas chinese and foreigners living in china who are repping china and pushing back against all the anti china narrative which is really hurting china's image internationally. Even India is learning and playing the worldwide media and propaganda game better than china. INDIA. IS. BETTER. THAN. CHINA. Let that sink in. You see indians are on YouTube and other social media and have billions of views just for one song or video putting them first in world ranking lists and giving them immense power to control narrative in west if they chose to exercise that power(which imo they aren't using yet to it's potential, India is still too weak to be openly hostile to west unlike china).. let Chinese also upvote and control narrative on western social media.. just like billion indians do.. why can't china do this? Of course they can. And they should. I think Chinese are worldly and educated enough by now. If anything china can always just ban the site completely or just censor whatever specific page. Pretty sure china can do this even without google or facebooks permission. Just make domestic ISPS do it, or create or hire admins to do it, or write AI or whatever combined with human oversight and flexibility.

china needs to invent some better English to Chinese and Chinese to English translations apps so that using western sites is as easy as using Chinese ones. That will go a long way to countering India's advantage of more English speakers. Also if Chinese can access and learn from western internet and can shape and control narrative and opinions on western social media and internet, but west cannot do the same to china's, then I beleive that will give china a massive systemic advantage. The only way for usa to counter this would be to end free speech and be outright racist and ban all chinese people from using western social media and even western internet. This will be a really difficult choice for the west, since internet is really about freedom of speech, and is basically "holy" to many, including myself and anonymous and hacker and anarchist and "internationalist" types, since internet is supposed to be borderless and classless, and nationless, ie the great equaliser. So even to ban china, will be impossible and will divide the west if usa were to push it's eu allies to follow suit. Germany etc has plenty of hacktivist types and will not settle for that lightly. Not to mention Germany has been hacked and Merkel herself bugged and spied upon.

Continued in next post---
 

Ex0

New Member
Registered Member
---Continued from last post.

Dunno. Just some random and wild ideas, but I think there are some decent ideas in there that should be looked into and refined further.



Feels like we(mainland china) are isolated internet wise and are not using our full power for china's benefit.. I mean it could really improve china's image and tell chinas story to the whole world for real, and they cannot call all 1.4 billiom wumao or ignore us all, otherwise they will no longer be able to pretend or say shit like "we love Chinese people, we just hate the gov" like they lie and pretend right now. Isolating ourselves from greater internet and social media only helps reinforce such negative and incorrect stereotypes and assumptions.



Isolation hardly ever ends well, same as like in the pre CPC, Qing dynasty days. China and Chinese should mingle with the world and be able to debate and win vs the best the world has to offer. This would also make Chinese much more worldly, and imo would also make the world a better place, so it's not just for chinas benefit/interests but for the whole world. China just needs to find a good balance for censorship vs freedom to post and shit talk. Imo just ban the outright harmful lies, like anti science lies, child pron, religious cults and all things like that which obviously will/does hurt the people and also the countrys long term interests.



All the above just shows you how far behind china is in this aspect when even india can be said to stronger at controlling and shaping international public narrative and emotions, or at least the west. I guess since democracies need to all shit talk and control narrative much better, since they all fight and argue and manipulate the public in the open due to their politically system, unlike china where all the political games is done behind closed doors and doesnt involve shaping or controlling public opinion. Of course china still controls and shapes public opinion, but it is all one sided and the gov and elites are always united, unlike liberal democracies who are forged in the fires of battle and thus are far more experienced and adept at such things. No, I'm not arguing in favor of liberal democracies, just being a realist and pointing out one benefit from the hundreds of negatives overall.



Another idea. China could and should(?) also make civilians an offer(to the more/most stubborn ones that refuse to go SafeZone instantly or early) that china will rebuild the houses or whatever if they are homeless, and will even offer them to live in mainland if they want immediately, and maybe even give them free and permanent housing. Divide and conquer. Offer 20,000 to everyone who takes the offer, along with the normal guarantees of everything else normal Chinese receive, like basic shelter, food, education, clothing, health care, etc etc. All taken care of. Of course before offering china should do all the math and cost/benefit ratio and see if it's worth it, but I think it will be. I mean one soldiers death is already massive cost(training and lost equipment, along with morale), and if you can get all civilians to leave to safe zone which allows china to just flatten without worry, then imo that is worth far far more. Even offer 1000, or give them guaranteed housing on mainland, I bet most of them will take it. Especially the younger kids who ate struggling to afford house in developed countries or urban cities. China can save this offer for later even, like do the safe zone offer first and majority should leave already since they vslue their lives, but china can also save this offer as 11th hour offer to get the last few remaining fence sitters outta there. And then after that flatten everything, they've had their chance and even the best offer already. Only the most hardcore anti china fighters will be left, no need to feel sorry for them.



So yeah. What I've learnt from this war is that the narrative and information war is most important and will decide morale on both sides, and also will raise or lower the cost for various strategies and tactics. With good propaganda and controlling the narrative, you can make them divided and surrender faster, get more leverage for negitiations, lessen resistance from both Taiwan/Ukraine, and from adversarial countriees(like sanctions, sending weapons, even sending foreign fighters).. you can even get away with flattening everything including civilians (like in middle east or Asia) or even dumping agent orange and land mining the whole country(Laos), sanctioning and blockading it for years(Cuba/Nk) and even can get away with real genocide like in Yemen. Just need to up your game like usas.



Everyone says Russia's propaganda and interference game is top notch, like from kgb days to now, even getting trump elected and dividing usa, but imo that is bs. That is usas own propaganda making you beleive Russia is stronger than it is and usa is weaker than it is when in reality usa dominates. Usa can divide, meddle, even bug and overthrow allied countries govs of leaders and get away with it. Now that is power. Russia's own people are all aware of Russia's propaganda tactics and are skeptics, compare with usa who's people truly buy that shit 100% and beleive there's no domestic propaganda by the gov, and there's no connection between gov and private media etc.



Of course it's a dual edged sword and makes their own people idiots and ignorant, especially of china, but just the fact that the elites in power can do all that shows how far and deep their propaganda game goes.



China's needs to quickly learn and emulate all the best/good parts, while rejecting the bad parts (like making our own people dumb and ignorant on world affairs and our adversaries).



Domestically china doesn't need to worry or copy usas propaganda because china can just censor and do positive truthful propaganda, so no need to rely on negative lies, which usa does to it's own population to justify it's acts agaisnt other countries.



Usa needs to keep their population ignorant and dumb, in order to make it easier to do anti china propaganda. Because if they were dmatt and educated, they would know all the anti china propaganda is bs, and it would make their propaganda and controlling the narrative much harder to do.



Lastly, while I do say that propaganda game is very important, of course in the end numbers and hard power is the most important. But if that was the only thing china cared about, china could take Taiwan tomorrow already. That's why I'm only focusing on these aspects, because that's what will affect china's decision to attack or not in the first place, along with what tactics and strategy will be used good propaganda game will maximise your strategic and tactical options while minimizing your enemies. Good propaganda game will also limit the amount of damage you take from third parties/world, and limit the help your enemy will receive also. All in all it's good and helps in literally every aspect of war.



Congrats if you read it all. You are a man of men, hero of heroes, dominator of dominators. Here, have a cookie. You deserved it.



/Rant
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
So that ends up with everyone in hell? As you point out, China doesn't have enough nukes for that, right now.

Edit: Also, military expansions are extremely costly. But they don't necessarily result in an increased advantage. The reason is that by pouring more resources into military expansion, you cause your opponents to also pour more resources into military expansion, cancelling out your own gain. The result is an arms race where everybody loses, but doesn't necessarily change the balance of military power.

But really, the contours of a China- Taiwan deal are extremely simple. China can offer to take the military option off the table if Taiwan agrees formally never to declare independence and participates in international organizations as Chinese Taipei. This seems to be a consensus view that both the leadership in Beijing and the vast majority of people on Taiwan would accept. It's a worthy alternative to nuclear war/WWIII.
Uh oh, this side of him is back again. "Hey guys, I'm totally Chinese, totally on your side. By the way, I think we should give up. Why run the race against the US? It's like you run faster, then he runs faster, then you run faster, then he does too and it just makes everybody tired. Let's just give up and say whatever you stole from us, you can keep but you need to really really pinky swear promise that you won't beat us over the head with it all the time, ok?"

Check this out: No options are off the table for China over Taiwan. Whatever military and whatever economic fights that need to take place, we will meet them and win. If the US fights us, we end them; if NATO fights us, we end them. The Soviets built enough nukes to fry the world 7 times over I think we can make enough cover Europe and the US a few times no problem. Whatever our strengths are, we make them better; whatever is not enough, we will work harder than the rest of the world to make it enough and beyond. There is nothing that the Chinese cannot do better than the rest of the world. The PLA will win the arms race the same way all arms races are won: by innovating technology faster and building war machines faster based on the largest economic base in the world that is also particularly known for manufacturing. If somebody should de-escalate this arms race because it's too expensive, then it can only be the US; go try to convince them because your defeatism has no audience here. When it comes to Taiwan, that is Chinese territory that must be returned no matter what consequences must be brought on the world, and we will see that all the way to the end. No compromise.
 
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Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Uh oh, this side of him is back again. "Hey guys, I'm totally Chinese, totally on your side. By the way, I think we should give up. Why run the race against the US? It's like you run faster, then he runs faster, then you run faster, then he does too and it just makes everybody tired. Let's just give up and say whatever you stole from us, you can keep but you need to really really pinky swear promise that you won't beat us over the head with it all the time, ok?"
Right? I'm glad I'm not the only one who notices @gadgetcool5 schizophrenic flip-flops, a few low-hanging anti-US comments here and there, and suddenly Jai-Hind style defeatism and worship of West and Chinese surrender.

How much do you want to bet he is an Indian pretending to be 'Chinese nationalist' then inserting opposing opinions that are so obviously retarded (i.e., recognize Taiwan independence to avoid nuclear WW3). Fuck off Jai-Hind.
 
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