Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Right? I'm glad I'm not the only one who notices @gadgetcool5 schizophrenic flip-flops, a few based comments here and there, and suddenly Jai-Hind style defeatism and worship of West and surrender. Fuck off @gadgetcool5

How much do you want to be he is an Indian pretending to be Chinese nationalist then inserting opposing opinions that are so obviously retarded (i.e., recognize Taiwan to avoid nuclear war with US). Fuck off Jai-Hind.
I remember all of his earlier posts where he accused China of everything from lab engineering COVID to the mythical Uighur genocide, saying that China only has itself to blame or the US would gladly hand off the strongest nation tag. He said that China should give up every dispute from the SCS to Galwan in order to foster "good relations" with neighbors. For every disagreement between China and a non-US nation, he said China should just give it up in order to focus on the US, but then when discussing China vs US situations, he went on to say that China should capitulate that as well in favor of good relations with the US. He said China should disarm itself to appear less menacing, and if that doesn't work, "it's not too late" to just re-arm again, as if he's playing some video game where you can just click on units to create them instantly with your funds. He justified all this by saying that he goes full "wumao" (his own words to characterize a pro-China poster's behavior) on American forums because in his mind, that would make him balanced and worth listening to instead of schizophrenic. I remember everything and whenever I see a post from him saying something obvious like China needs to build its own technology, I see nothing but a lazy poor attempt to mask his true intent and desire.
 
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A_Chinese_Man

Banned Idiot
Registered Member
Russian initial attack on military targets was done with less than 120! ballistic & cruise missiles and that's why Ukraine was flying aroud with SU-25's until very recently. For comprisons sake US launched more in Syria just to hit fewer targets.

Heavily fortified place like Taiwan would require at least 1000 fired at the beginning.

I am pretty sure China has stockpiled more than 20,000 cruise missiles for Taiwan alone !!
 

KYli

Brigadier
Even internet giants need to have an emergency plan in place to insulate against sanctions. Dollar debts might not be a good idea anymore.
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solarz

Brigadier
Moving vehicles in and out of an AO is only a small portion of logistics. Russia had no problem moving units in and out of their staging areas, and yet they're bogged down in the north and struggling to advance 100 km across the flat Eurasian steppe because they didn't do basic maintenance work on their supply trucks.

Your tanks aren't gonna be doing much shooting if their supply trucks can't get to them because PVT Zhou didn't turn over the tires once a month as preventative measures to keep them in working condition, and now the side walls are rotten and brittle, so they're breaking down the moment they veer slightly off road.

Your infantrymen aren't gonna be humping a whole lot of ammo and equipment if they're eating MRE that expired in 2015 because MAJ Dong decided to skim some profits selling his brigade's fresh MRE to local military enthusiasts for a couple of yuans. Or if COL Ye decided he'd rather buy cheaper, nearly expired pork instead of the more expensive ones, keeping some extra cash for himself. Or if you left your water tanks sitting out in the sun for a week straight and now they're falling apart.

You're not gonna own the night if LTCOL Miao didn't bother to buy enough batteries to actually power NVGs for his enlisted. Or SGT Zhang decided that he doesn't need jumper cables for his jeep.

Any two-bit military can move tanks in and out of an area. Being able to sustain, replenish, and repair those tanks when inevitable breakdowns happen is way more important.

Guys, just ignore the troll.
 

obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
@obj 705A bro welcome to SDF, finally you decided to come...lol, my point a major lesson learn from this conflict, used Force smartly like what the Russian are doing not the US shock and awed. We know PLA is a fan and a big follower of US military RMA (revolution in military affair) since Dessert Storm, destroying the enemy will to resist by mass destruction is expensive, destructive and counter productive and beside your opponent is your own kin as I always mentioned why destroy something you owned. Let us wait for the outcome and surely a big lesson for Beijing as they digest the reaction of the Collective West and how to respond and counter act.
Thnx, the thread at PDF turned into a clusterf*** with over 600 pages LOL, you post one comment and it get's burried in few seconds.
And yeah I doubt the American way of waging war is usable in Taiwan, deliberately causing mass destruction and suffering to the civilian population to drive the enemy to surrender (aka shock and awe) is only usable against people and land that you hate.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Moving vehicles in and out of an AO is only a small portion of logistics. Russia had no problem moving units in and out of their staging areas, and yet they're bogged down in the north and struggling to advance 100 km across the flat Eurasian steppe because they didn't do basic maintenance work on their supply trucks.

Your tanks aren't gonna be doing much shooting if their supply trucks can't get to them because PVT Zhou didn't turn over the tires once a month as preventative measures to keep them in working condition, and now the side walls are rotten and brittle, so they're breaking down the moment they veer slightly off road.

Your infantrymen aren't gonna be humping a whole lot of ammo and equipment if they're eating MRE that expired in 2015 because MAJ Dong decided to skim some profits selling his brigade's fresh MRE to local military enthusiasts for a couple of yuans. Or if COL Ye decided he'd rather buy cheaper, nearly expired pork instead of the more expensive ones, keeping some extra cash for himself. Or if you left your water tanks sitting out in the sun for a week straight and now they're falling apart.

You're not gonna own the night if LTCOL Miao didn't bother to buy enough batteries to actually power NVGs for his enlisted. Or SGT Zhang decided that he doesn't need jumper cables for his jeep.

Any two-bit military can move tanks in and out of an area. Being able to sustain, replenish, and repair those tanks when inevitable breakdowns happen is way more important.

You really want to make the comparison with rolling tanks across flat terrain and moving them thousands of miles through this? Seriously?

1646413053192.jpeg
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
DPP supporting/anti mainland rebels maybe. However I find it hard to believe die hard KMT soldiers will fight for the DPP regime till the last man. Remember old school KMT are from mainland not that long ago compared to Ben Sheng Ren. They have roots there. Chiang kai shek might hate communists but he ain't no traitor. He detests taiwan independence and longed for China reunification albeit under KMT rule. In a most likely scenario when mainland invades the island, it means DPP has opted suicide option of formal independence or red line crossed close leading to it. My feeling is hardcore KMT soldiers rather surrender. I mean prc have promised Taiwan can keep their armed forces if they return to motherland.
Right now in Ukraine, the resistance is from the real military. There is no insurgency that was characteristic of say Iraq. So we are not seeing things like IEDs, hit and run indirect fire (mortars, rockets). Civilians for the most part are not randomly taking up arms, possibly because there is still significant military forces, possibly because they don't expect Russian forces to stay.

There are a few major differences right off the bat.
1. If PRC is coming, they are planning on staying, no question about that.
2. There would be no easy outside supply lines

The other complicating factors in trying to guess the likelihood of insurgency ops or level of resistance would be how this offensive came about

1. US instigated, examples: Secretary of State/President visit, Formal Ambassador/Embassy established, US military establishing some kind of base
If any of these happen, the likelihood of insurgency would be zero

2. Internally instigated, ie. declaration of independence, likelihood of insurgency is probably 25%

3. PRC instigated, similar to what Russia did, over 50%

Even if American support came to be, I don't think it would change these odds, only the length of time for organized resistance. That being said, I find any cases of 1 and 2 would be met with deep internal unrest, possibly to the point where the military would fight itself.

Someone brought up the length of time to prepare 25+ years for Taiwan, vs. 8 for Ukraine
In the last 25 years, the ROC military has actually lost a slight technological advantage to a deep disadvantage
The conscription system has been reduced from years to months
The volunteer military has increased 200 people (net of attrition)
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
View attachment 84458
Loading tanks onto trains isn't that hard...

The PLA have rail lines right up to the Indian border, so tanks are loaded onto trains, ferried out, and then driven a few miles to those staging areas.
View attachment 84459

I would say that having proper infrastructure to support massive movement through treacherous terrain is a very important criterion for logistics.
 
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