Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
ROCNationalist said:
Moving vehicles in and out of an AO is only a small portion of logistics. Russia had no problem moving units in and out of their staging areas, and yet they're bogged down in the north and struggling to advance 100 km across the flat Eurasian steppe because they didn't do basic maintenance work on their supply trucks.

Your tanks aren't gonna be doing much shooting if their supply trucks can't get to them because PVT Zhou didn't turn over the tires once a month as preventative measures to keep them in working condition, and now the side walls are rotten and brittle, so they're breaking down the moment they veer slightly off road.

Your infantrymen aren't gonna be humping a whole lot of ammo and equipment if they're eating MRE that expired in 2015 because MAJ Dong decided to skim some profits selling his brigade's fresh MRE to local military enthusiasts for a couple of yuans. Or if COL Ye decided he'd rather buy cheaper, nearly expired pork instead of the more expensive ones, keeping some extra cash for himself. Or if you left your water tanks sitting out in the sun for a week straight and now they're falling apart.

You're not gonna own the night if LTCOL Miao didn't bother to buy enough batteries to actually power NVGs for his enlisted. Or SGT Zhang decided that he doesn't need jumper cables for his jeep.

Any two-bit military can move tanks in and out of an area. Being able to sustain, replenish, and repair those tanks when inevitable breakdowns happen is way more important.
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The problem with your assertions is they are not backed up by hard evidence. Every military will have logistics/competence issues.

You know the famous case of the ROCA LogO that committed suicide because he was struggling to keep up his duties because he was
ordering Hummer parts from eBay with his personal funds?
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The ROCAF only has enough AIM-120 to equip 2 per F-16
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The recent Taobao missile parts scandal?
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These examples are not meant as some kind of humiliation, but just that your examples are generic and can happen to anyone in general.

The first and only time I used NVG, it was amazing for 2 minutes, then the whole picture faded and became a green blur. Someone is supposed to check it before exercise, but they didn't, or maybe it didn't break yet. So had to red tag it in the field.

One guy kept taking the extra MRE from end of exercises (supposed to be returned to QM)

The most egregious, someone took my Hershey Cookies and Creme bar from a meal and replaced it with a Cadbury Fruit and Nut. IT HAS RAISINS, pretty sure I have cause to call an MP for that...
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
ROCNationalist said:
Can't refute logistics
"Must be a troll"

Cope harder
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The vast majority of Taiwan's population lives along a thin strip of flat land within 30km of the Eastern coastline.
Moving Chinese units around Taiwan isn't really an issue.
The problem is landing enough forces onto Taiwan in the first place and then resupplying across the beaches.

And if you want to look at logistics, there are approximately 400 targets that will completely cripple Taiwan's logistics and infrastructure, which would result in military and societal collapse. See below.

AndrewS said:
Yes, I agree that the PLA would delay a Taiwan campaign if the US got involved.

From the civilian perspective, the electricity and fuel networks on Taiwan will be attacked. There are only 100-odd major targets like Power stations, Fuel Depots and Refineries. The transportation network could also be crippled with another 300-odd bridges on major rivers/canals in Taiwan, which would result in roughly 15 isolated regions comprising 1-2 million people each. I would see this happening within the first week, even with US intervention.

If these targets are hit, no matter what happens afterwards, it is only a matter of days/weeks before a societal collapse in Taiwan, reminiscent of the last days of Imperial Japan. Taiwan only produces one-third of its food requirements during peacetime and China can still prevent outside aircraft and ships from reaching Taiwan for example. I don't see any way for Taiwan to avoid this scenario except with a political settlement with China.

So if there is US intervention, then the PLA can afford to delay a Taiwan invasion by a few weeks.
In that time, we would see increasingly desperate attempts by the US forces to reach Taiwan which is only 200km from the Chinese coast.
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hkbc

Junior Member
ROCNationalist said:
Moving vehicles in and out of an AO is only a small portion of logistics. Russia had no problem moving units in and out of their staging areas, and yet they're bogged down in the north and struggling to advance 100 km across the flat Eurasian steppe because they didn't do basic maintenance work on their supply trucks.

Your tanks aren't gonna be doing much shooting if their supply trucks can't get to them because PVT Zhou didn't turn over the tires once a month as preventative measures to keep them in working condition, and now the side walls are rotten and brittle, so they're breaking down the moment they veer slightly off road.

Your infantrymen aren't gonna be humping a whole lot of ammo and equipment if they're eating MRE that expired in 2015 because MAJ Dong decided to skim some profits selling his brigade's fresh MRE to local military enthusiasts for a couple of yuans. Or if COL Ye decided he'd rather buy cheaper, nearly expired pork instead of the more expensive ones, keeping some extra cash for himself. Or if you left your water tanks sitting out in the sun for a week straight and now they're falling apart.

You're not gonna own the night if LTCOL Miao didn't bother to buy enough batteries to actually power NVGs for his enlisted. Or SGT Zhang decided that he doesn't need jumper cables for his jeep.

Any two-bit military can move tanks in and out of an area. Being able to sustain, replenish, and repair those tanks when inevitable breakdowns happen is way more important.
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hmm...

IIRC there was the LHD that caught fire while berthed and had to scrapped, a couple of DDs and a sub that just run in to things in middle of the sea, the crash landing of a fighter into the South China Sea, the CV that had its crew infected with Covid and became non-operational.....

Oh mea culpa we aren't talking about those guys

Focus, Chinese examples...

Two fighter jets crashed into the sea near the south eastern coast in an apparent collision, resulting in two deaths. Had to ground all those jets and suspend all training missions, after concerns about training and maintenance

A fighter jet, apparently far superior to the F-35, crashed into the sea while taking part in training exercises. Combat training for the fighter fleet had to be suspended in the aftermath of the crash.

Wonder if it was that Zhang fella at work again or maybe it was Abe or Park, who knows they all look the same

Duh, those are RoCAF examples, Republic of China is still China right? Not that sure because there's this cat lady that calls herself president or something that keeps coming out claiming otherwise and loads of American ex-diplomats keep popping by who go on and on about Taiwan but then the State department seem to contradict them saying there's one China, honest! Well Americans and geography, Iran or was it Ukraine well they're somewhere on the map near to that Africa country!
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
ROCNationalist said:
Moving vehicles in and out of an AO is only a small portion of logistics. Russia had no problem moving units in and out of their staging areas, and yet they're bogged down in the north and struggling to advance 100 km across the flat Eurasian steppe because they didn't do basic maintenance work on their supply trucks.

Your tanks aren't gonna be doing much shooting if their supply trucks can't get to them because PVT Zhou didn't turn over the tires once a month as preventative measures to keep them in working condition, and now the side walls are rotten and brittle, so they're breaking down the moment they veer slightly off road.

Your infantrymen aren't gonna be humping a whole lot of ammo and equipment if they're eating MRE that expired in 2015 because MAJ Dong decided to skim some profits selling his brigade's fresh MRE to local military enthusiasts for a couple of yuans. Or if COL Ye decided he'd rather buy cheaper, nearly expired pork instead of the more expensive ones, keeping some extra cash for himself. Or if you left your water tanks sitting out in the sun for a week straight and now they're falling apart.

You're not gonna own the night if LTCOL Miao didn't bother to buy enough batteries to actually power NVGs for his enlisted. Or SGT Zhang decided that he doesn't need jumper cables for his jeep.

Any two-bit military can move tanks in and out of an area. Being able to sustain, replenish, and repair those tanks when inevitable breakdowns happen is way more important.
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What the hell are you talking about? You're just imagining situations of PLA corruption. One of the most telling areas of how meticulous a military is when operating is aircraft safety and maintenance. The PLAAF has one of if not the highest safety rates in the world, certainly the highest amongst the major powers compared with the US and Russia. The nearly pristine condition that the Chinese military always maintains their equipment with low incident rate is testament to their professionalism. Your 2 pictures don't mean shit; that same year, the US wrecked every jet from F-15 up to F-35 (numerically, literally covering every model from F-15, 16, 18, 22, 35) and back down again and that ship in your picture is in service after a minor styrofoam fire while the USN actually suffered the permanent loss of the Bonhomme Richard from a port fire. I don't even want to compare with the joke that the ROC forces are but compared especially with Russia, the PLA works like a new airport while Russia works like a New York Subway crew. There is no comparison to their operating standards in this respect.
 
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wxw456

New Member
Registered Member
ROCNationalist said:
View attachment 84458
Loading tanks onto trains isn't that hard...

The PLA have rail lines right up to the Indian border, so tanks are loaded onto trains, ferried out, and then driven a few miles to those staging areas.
View attachment 84459
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Are you even trying? Did you even measure the distances in your image? Xigaze to Burang is >500 km in range. Xigaze to Gyirong is 300 km to 400 km. Xigaze to Yadong is >250 km. Furthermore the discussion was about deployment of tanks to Aksai Chin and the disputed area which is >1000 km by road. A "few" miles indeed. :rolleyes:

Operational Ranges for MBTs:
  • M1A2 Abrams, 426 km on road, 150–200 km off road
  • Leclerc, 550 km
  • Merkava, 500 km
  • Challenger 2, 550 km on road, 250 km off road
  • K2 Black Panther, 450 km
  • T14 Armata, 500 km
  • Type 10, 500 km
  • Type 15, 469 km
  • Type 99, 600 km
Getting armored vehicles to these border regions easily takes 1 or 2 refuels. Furthermore we've seen frequent PLA exercises in the border region involving dozens of vehicles at a time. All this requires deployment of logistics units to support and maintain them. This isn't even accounting for the fact that oxygen levels are lower in the Tibetan plateau and affects engine performance. There's no fast deployment into the border regions. A simple drive to the region takes 1-2 refuels and >12 hours after unloading from trains. There's a reason the PLA is expanding airports in the region.
 
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SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
ROCNationalist said:
View attachment 84458
Loading tanks onto trains isn't that hard...

The PLA have rail lines right up to the Indian border, so tanks are loaded onto trains, ferried out, and then driven a few miles to those staging areas.
View attachment 84459
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"PLA have rail lines right up to the Indian border, so tanks are loaded onto trains, ferried out, and then driven a few miles to those staging areas."

A few miles, seriously?
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
ROCNationalist said:
View attachment 84464
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What is this supposed to be? You think I didn't see it the first time or something? Do you know how many fighter jets the US lost last year? Like I said, every operational model crashed at least once, most of them twice, last year for the US. How many did the ROCAF's midget air force suffer? J-20 is the only operational 5th gen fighter to never have an incident.
 
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