Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
ROCNationalist said:
5000 obsolete Mig-19 and 21s. Yes. Very impressive.
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2 things here are very impressive:
1. Your ignorance on the PLAAF.
2. Your inability to address most of the points in a post yet insistance on answering.

There are 2 things that you cannot skirt around: 1. China has the lowest aircraft incidence rate of all major air powers including Russia and the US. 2. Why does the ROCAF have so many wrecks with such a small airforce?
 
H

hkbc

Junior Member
manqiangrexue said:
What the hell are you talking about? You're just imagining situations of PLA corruption. One of the most telling areas of how meticulous a military is when operating is aircraft safety and maintenance. The PLAAF has one of if not the highest safety rates in the world, certainly the highest amongst the major powers compared with the US and Russia. The nearly pristine condition that the Chinese military always maintains their equipment with low incident rate is testament to their professionalism. Your 2 pictures don't mean shit; that same year, the US wrecked every jet from F-15 up to F-35 (numerically, literally covering every model from F-15, 16, 18, 22, 35) and back down again and that ship in your picture is in service after a minor styrofoam fire while the USN actually suffered the permanent loss of the Bonhomme Richard from a port fire. I don't even want to compare with the joke that the ROC forces are but compared especially with Russia, the PLA works like a new airport while Russia works like a New York Subway crew. There is no comparison to their operating standards in this respect.
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I don't know maybe that RoCNationalist fella has a point, since the PLA is such a hopeless joke maybe that Tsai English women should be spending those hard earned tax dollars on some reservoirs or an electricity grid that works instead of a bunch of 'better than F-35' (tm) jets (not sure about better they seem to fall out of the sky just the same, to me!). I mean best logistics in the world (except for water and electricity) should never to be under estimated, pineapples, dodgy pork and Lithuanian rum all round, who's with me?
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
manqiangrexue said:
2 things here are very impressive:
1. Your ignorance on the PLAAF.
2. Your inability to address most of the points in a post yet insistance on answering.

There are 2 things that you cannot skirt around: 1. China has the lowest aircraft incidence rate of all major air powers. 2. Why does the ROCAF have so many wrecks with such a small airforce?
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ROCAF is not a small air force. They operate around 300-400 fourth generation fighter. That's a lot even in East Asia.
 
T

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
ROCNationalist said:
PLAAF with one of the highest safety rates in the world

J-20 is the only operational 5th gen fighter to never see combat
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The problem with some western hawks and especially with the American hawks is that they encourage people to think that they are going to be safe, to think that they have to play hard and without caution because they are going to be there, the problem is if these people like the DPP in Taipei get what they want Taiwan will lead to the absolute destruction of Taiwan and losing everything and the only way to stop it will be a nuclear exchange and some people in DC will wonder if Los Angeles is worth sacrificing for Taipei. The Chinese are very happy with the status quo, trying to change that will lead them down a rather destructive path.
 
W

wxw456

New Member
Registered Member
hkbc said:
I don't know maybe that RoCNationalist fella has a point, since the PLA is such a hopeless joke maybe that Tsai English women should be spending those hard earned tax dollars on some reservoirs or an electricity grid that works instead of a bunch of 'better than F-35' (tm) jets (not sure about better they seem to fall out of the sky just the same, to me!). I mean best logistics in the world (except for water and electricity) should never to be under estimated, pineapples, dodgy pork and Lithuanian rum all round, who's with me?
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Don't get ahead of yourself here and aimlessly insult him. You don't even know if he's actually from the ROC or even if he is actually Chinese. ;)
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
obj 705A said:
Lesson #1 the US and it's allies will not interfere militarily and will not fire a single bullet against the PLA.
Lesson #2 they will try to use sanctions to force China to stop it's military operation.
Lesson #3 we shouldn't assume the Taiwanese will just roll over and surrender once the first missile is fired.
Lesson #4 China needs to significantly increase it's nuclear capability and drop the no first use of nuclear weapons policy.

I saw some members saying that China needs to have a significant increase in military spending to gain Taiwan back, I disagree with that, the existing force the PLA has is more than enough to reunify Taiwan with the PRC, may be they just need more landing ships and transport helicopters plus drones, all of these are not exactly super expensive items that require a big boost in military spending.

In the Ukraine war, the only effective weapon the US and co. has against Russia are sanctions (the literal weapons that are being sent such as Javelins and Stingers only delay the inevitable) and that is also the case with Taiwan, you don't regain Taiwan by attempting to get near or equal (or surpass) the US military, you regain Taiwan by equalling the US technologically (semiconductors and other areas where China still lags behind the US) this way the US has less economic cards to play against China.

Patience is a virtue, China is already starting the process of regaining Taiwan by attempting to achieve self sufficiency in technology, it would be reckless to try to do it now when China's semiconductor industry is still behind the US.

Just as how the US isn't sending any aircrafts to Ukraine airspace, the same will go for Taiwan, in other words once the Taiwan war starts, the US won't be able to supply Taiwan separatists with weapons through air or sea.
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I mentioned that the US can actually intervene directly but not kinetically, by taking command of Taiwanese forces so that shooting down their AWACs and bombing their radars will be ineffective as they'll be guided by US AWACs and ship radars in international waters while US doesn't shoot at China directly. I wouldn't even be surprised if US F-16s get painted Taiwanese colors and started flying for them out of Woody Island.

This seems to be what is happening in Russia vs Ukraine for the Ukrainians: they're doing bizarre moves like moving ballistic missiles towards Belarus that make no sense in a territorial defense situation but makes perfect sense if they're being treated like pawns.

ROCNationalist said:
View attachment 84458
Loading tanks onto trains isn't that hard...

The PLA have rail lines right up to the Indian border, so tanks are loaded onto trains, ferried out, and then driven a few miles to those staging areas.
View attachment 84459
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Do you know what a topographic map is???
 
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